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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

The Rogers shit curbed my excitement for this offseason, I don’t expect much especially with agents and executives around using that instability as leverage
 
I think they'll likely try to replace Ray and Matz with guys who made about what Ray and Matz made this year (8M and 5M). Arbitration raises to Vladdy, Teoscar and Berrios will eat up most of the payroll space they gain by losing Semien. Even if you assume a modest payroll bump, they'll have just about enough to spend maybe 15-20M in the rotation and then add a couple of decent bullpen arms. I don't see them adding a top-tier FA this year, which is par for the course with the Jays, last two years notwithstanding.
 
We’re going to have a fine offseason. Our team isn’t far off. A few pieces and we’ll be in the pennant race.
 
Yeah, arb raises will eat a lot of the payroll. Having Berrios from day 1 will at least more or less replace Ray's performance from last year, and it wouldn't shock me if they bring back someone like Matz on a 2-3 year deal hoping that he can continue to be a good bottom of the order arm.

But yeah, basically signing the guys already under control, and maybe re-signing Matz, basically brings us back to the payroll we were at last year. They should add someone in that 15-20M range by boosting the payroll, but unless if you get lucky, you can't count on them to be a major piece. And that's really unlikely to replace Semien's performance.

The bigger question I think will be whether the team will play more in the trade market. Everyone and their mother knows a "prospects for Jose Ramirez" type deal would make a heckuva lot of sense for this organization. It's just a question of whether management sees that too, and whether they can figure out what prospect tier they're willing to give up. Hopefully the September run tells management not to take it easy.

The way I see it, if they can bring in a legit piece using a prospect, and then get some decent FA signings, that essentially brings us back to the team we had this year, which as we saw in the end was basically 50/50 to make the playoffs. If they can get lucky and have some prospect pieces have a bigger impact than expected, and not lose major pieces to injury, that should be more than enough to make up some gap with the teams ahead of them. TB always feels like their voodoo spell will collapse, and Boston definitely played well over their heads last year too. If either or both takes a tumble, the door is open for sure, as long as Rogers in-fighting doesn't cost them. If the team doesn't get that extra 15-20m to boost the payroll, then it's going to be a lot tighter, and then you're really going to be praying that Moreno wins the ROY, or that Pearson finally explodes onto the scene, to really have a shot.
 
manny said:
I think they'll likely try to replace Ray and Matz with guys who made about what Ray and Matz made this year (8M and 5M). Arbitration raises to Vladdy, Teoscar and Berrios will eat up most of the payroll space they gain by losing Semien. Even if you assume a modest payroll bump, they'll have just about enough to spend maybe 15-20M in the rotation and then add a couple of decent bullpen arms. I don't see them adding a top-tier FA this year, which is par for the course with the Jays, last two years notwithstanding.
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Manny if the the team tries to lockup Vlad this offseason , what do you think it would take ?
 
It really depends on what Vlad wants to do and I haven't read anything about that anywhere.

If Vlad wants to hit FA as soon as possible, he'll probably earn something like 8/15/25/30 in the next four years and then he'll be a free agent at 26. That's probably the best path for him if all he wants to do is maximize his potential future money. 26 year old Vladdy coming off a few years like the one he just had might get a $400M deal. If that's what he wants, there's not really any semi-reasonable amount you could pay him now to get him to sign. Maybe he'd take the Tatis Jr. contract -- 330/14. But not sure that's a great idea. Vlad is a better hitter, but Tatis Jr. is an athletic SS, not a 1B with a recent weight problem.

If it was me, I'd approach him this offseason and try to buy out his arbitration years plus first 2-3 years of FA right now. Let's say you project that at 8/15/25/30/32/35/35 -- that's 180M for 6 years. He'd be a free agent at 29. 180M in his pocket right now and a chance to be a FA at 29 would have to be pretty tempting for Vlad, and it's probably a reasonable risk for the team.
 
There should be more careers where you can just be average or decent at what you do and get paid enormous amounts despite the lack of any truly remarkable skills.
 
I think Semien is replaced via trade.

I think He and the rest of the INF we would want ( not Kyle Seager) are going to command too much ( i mean if i'm uneasy going 5/150 for Semien, surely the Jays are)

Oakland ( Chapman)
Guardians ( JRam)
DBacks ( Marte)

Here is where im looking, with Biggio/Espinal taking the INF spot that is left over, or looking at the B tier FA like Escobar/KSeager/

Oakland has SP that could come in the deal too like Manaea/Bassitt

I think for SP they look to FA, and sign one of Ray, JGray, Erod, Verlander, Scherzer and a Matz like replacement Walker thinks he can fix like Dylan Bundy

I wouldn't rule out Lourdes being moved in a trade for said INF and the Jays looking at the deep LHH Corner OF market to replace him and get more balanced. Schwarber/Joc/Rosario/Conforto all would fit the bill, and guys like Cutch/Duvall/Canha if they dont care if he's RH.

At RP, i wouldn't be stunned if they made a run at Iglesias, Kenley or a Kimbrel trade, but frankly im okay with another Cimber trade
 
CH1 said:
You just described lawyers and hedge fund managers
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I don't know of any lawyer who is just okay and makes untold millions.

Hedge fund managers too - their remarkable skill might be in attracting capital, hiring the best people, etc.

Most baseball players are barely athletes. But the league minimum is more than 99.9% of what lawyers make in a year and probably a good percentage of hedge fund guys too.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I don't know of any lawyer who is just okay and makes untold millions.

Hedge fund managers too - their remarkable skill might be in attracting capital, hiring the best people, etc.

Most baseball players are barely athletes. But the league minimum is more than 99.9% of what lawyers make in a year and probably a good percentage of hedge fund guys too.
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Huh? Every player in MLB is probably in the top 0.1% of baseball players in the world. You can't compare them to average lawyers. There just so happens to be zero market for the ball players who are in say, the 50th percentile.

50th percentile lawyers get the town drunk off DUI charges. 50th percentile ball players play beer league on Sunday, and then go to their actual job on Monday, because there's no market for them.
 
I'm commenting on what they're paid for producing mostly meh results within their league, even if they're in the top pro league in the world. It's one thing if the best of the best get huge $20M - $30M deals. But a guy like Matz making $14M with his generally near 4.00 ERA, 45 career wins, and overall losing record, is just crazy in the grand scheme of things. The fact that that's the price for a middle of the rotation pitcher coming off one good year with a limited track record is astounding. Nowhere near the best at what he does, and he's raking in enormous cash.
 
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