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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

MyNameIsJonas said:
They seem to be banking on

Bellinger/Tapia replacement (Brantley)/Swanson>Teo/Tapia/Whatever RP they could afford.

Thats a big bet IMO
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Bellinger/Swanson definitely improves the D overall. You definitely need an offensive boost though to replace Teo - one of the biggest threats of the team was the number of big bats in the lineup. When you start having too many guys who are basically D-first, suddenly you run into a very weak bottom of the lineup, especially if you have guys like Chapman or Jansen going on a longer cold streak.

But really, it all depends on the cost. If it's only 10M or so with some mutual options for future years, then even if it bombs, it's not the worst. If you start running into some sort of pseudo-bidding war and suddenly you need to give him 2/30 or more, then I'd pass and figure something else out.
 
UWHabs said:
Bellinger/Swanson definitely improves the D overall. You definitely need an offensive boost though to replace Teo - one of the biggest threats of the team was the number of big bats in the lineup. When you start having too many guys who are basically D-first, suddenly you run into a very weak bottom of the lineup, especially if you have guys like Chapman or Jansen going on a longer cold streak.

But really, it all depends on the cost. If it's only 10M or so with some mutual options for future years, then even if it bombs, it's not the worst. If you start running into some sort of pseudo-bidding war and suddenly you need to give him 2/30 or more, then I'd pass and figure something else out.
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For Bellinger to take a 2 year deal ( as is the rumor) and bypass the opportunity to bounce back and re-enter FA at 28, it would have to be worth his while.
 
He's a difficult guy to evaluate ... definitely not a sure thing and pretty mediocre for a couple of years now. Walking less and striking out more.

I don't really understand the mocking though, he's generally considered a great defender, was still worth 1.7 WAR in this lost season, is only 27 years old and was league MVP 4 years ago. A lefty bat with power would be massive in the middle of our lineup.

Seems like a worthy roll of the dice, but the thing that gives me pause is that the Dodgers are a smart organization and they couldn't figure it out. I don't think they're letting him go because they're 100% sure he's unfixable though, they have salary issues of their own and probably want to pay Trea Turner (he's UFA) and a top-tier SP in free agency.
 
It's a worthy roll of the dice for a 4th OF, yeah absolutely. But we're talking about a guy with a ~70 wRC+ over his last 900AB. If you're a serious team that is serious about playoff contention, that can't be someone that you're relying on as an everyday player and I'd be very surprised if that wasn't the ideal behind signing Bellinger.

As 4th OF with an average plus glove in centrefield and an outside chance at finding his stroke again, it's a great move. I'll reserve judgement until free agency is over, but we've seen this movie before.
 
MindzEye said:
It's a worthy roll of the dice for a 4th OF, yeah absolutely. But we're talking about a guy with a ~70 wRC+ over his last 900AB. If you're a serious team that is serious about playoff contention, that can't be someone that you're relying on as an everyday player and I'd be very surprised if that wasn't the ideal behind signing Bellinger.

As 4th OF with an average plus glove in centrefield and an outside chance at finding his stroke again, it's a great move. I'll reserve judgement until free agency is over, but we've seen this movie before.
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You have to throw out 2021 and his 47 wRC+ entirely due to injury (see quote below).

Averaging his 2022 wRC+ (83) and 2020 wRC+ (112) probably paints a more realistic picture of where he's at with the stick.



After undergoing right shoulder surgery late last year, it’s the left side of Cody Bellinger’s body wreaking havoc in 2021.

The Dodger outfielder played through his latest ailment for three games last week, but a non-displaced rib fracture on his left side forced him to the injured list Tuesday. It’s his third stint on the IL this season.

Bellinger missed nearly two months with a hairline fracture in his left leg and 10 games with left hamstring tightness earlier this year. Both of those issues occurred in the season’s first half, making it difficult for the former 2019 National League MVP to find his rhythm in 2021. He is batting .159/.237/.291 with nine home runs in 89 games this year.

With his latest injury, Bellinger missed his third straight game before the Dodgers decided to place him on the IL.
 
MindzEye said:
It's a worthy roll of the dice for a 4th OF, yeah absolutely. But we're talking about a guy with a ~70 wRC+ over his last 900AB. If you're a serious team that is serious about playoff contention, that can't be someone that you're relying on as an everyday player and I'd be very surprised if that wasn't the ideal behind signing Bellinger.

As 4th OF with an average plus glove in centrefield and an outside chance at finding his stroke again, it's a great move. I'll reserve judgement until free agency is over, but we've seen this movie before.
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Yeah, almost certainly you're over-paying based on what he did 3-4 years ago. And yeah, if this is the biggest FA major move for the team, then it's a bad off-season. But as a sort of 3A outfielder, you could do a lot worse. If he's basically an upgrade on Tapia, with the potential to really steal ABs from everyone if everything goes well, it can work out. But he basically can't be scheduled in for much more than that out of the gate - if he ends up with 650 PAs, then either something has gone tremendously well or tremendously terribly.
 
Fair enough, but even then...

axlsalinger said:
Averaging his 2022 wRC+ (83) and 2020 wRC+ (112) probably paints a more realistic picture of where he's at with the stick.
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That is not encouraging either. A ~95 wRC+ starting CF with a solid but just solid glove isn't what we should be hoping for either
 
MindzEye said:
Fair enough, but even then...



That is not encouraging either. A ~95 wRC+ starting CF with a solid but just solid glove isn't what we should be hoping for either
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That is fair. As UW said, they can't go into the season with Gurriel-Cody-Springer backed up by Jackie Bradley Jr. I assume they'd be aware they need to get a legit 4th guy due to not only uncertainty with Bellinger, but Springer's injury history as well. Whit or JBJ are okay as the 5th guy.

It's pretty strange to look at walk rates in Cody's first 4 years in the bigs (11.7%, 10.9, 14.4, 12.3) compared to the last couple (8.9 and 6.9). Last year does look like the anomaly here, maybe he needs glasses but the dude's still only 27.
 
Also, CF is the one position (other than C) where teams don't necessarily hate a 95 wRC+ if the D is great, and Bellinger has more power than most.
 
axlsalinger said:
if the D is great,
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It's not though. It's fine, but it definitely isn't great.

Min 600 innings
- 17th according to DRS
- 13th according to UZR

Basically, he's the same defensively as the 30+ yr old version of Springer...average to slightly above.

95 wRC+ and average D is fine as a 4th OF but only just fine and only as a 4th OF.
 
axlsalinger said:
That is fair. As UW said, they can't go into the season with Gurriel-Cody-Springer backed up by Jackie Bradley Jr. I assume they'd be aware they need to get a legit 4th guy due to not only uncertainty with Bellinger, but Springer's injury history as well. Whit or JBJ are okay as the 5th guy.

It's pretty strange to look at walk rates in Cody's first 4 years in the bigs (11.7%, 10.9, 14.4, 12.3) compared to the last couple (8.9 and 6.9). Last year does look like the anomaly here, maybe he needs glasses but the dude's still only 27.
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I mean, when you're hitting .160, no point for people to throw you pitches out of the zone. But yeah, he's cratered in every aspect of the game.

I don't know who's out there as a potential 3A/3B outfielder to go along with those guys that would fit the budget. You're probably paying Bellinger enough that you can't really add someone like Nimmo who's one of the handful of really top guys available. And you're probably not going for someone even as good as Benintendi, since if you're paying Benintendi+Bellinger, you may as well just sign Nimmo instead. The next tier down is full of guys like Haniger or Peralta, which again, ugh, not exactly the best options.

Maybe they can find someone in a deal who can fill that 3A/3B role. Or you delay and find a Grossman/Duvall/etc... type of player who you can release at the end of Spring if they continue to suck.
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
the shit ban will help belly a ton
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