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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

manny said:
Varsho is good. Have to hope there is more there with the bat. I’m not sure how his defensive value (very good so far) will translate if he’s mostly a LF though.

They paid a pretty steep price, which is sort of surprising considering Atkins just told us the market for C was so great.
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I'd assume they'd move Springer to a corner or at least decrease his time in CF
 
manny said:
Varsho is good. Have to hope there is more there with the bat. I’m not sure how his defensive value (very good so far) will translate if he’s mostly a LF though.

They paid a pretty steep price, which is sort of surprising considering Atkins just told us the market for C was so great.
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It was. For Arizona apparently.
 
Deckie007 said:
lol
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He's obviously not a wash, but I guess the question is how much do you value defensive metrics? Because he's not as valuable a stick as Gurriel is.

Defensive value is a hell of a lot more variable than performance at the plate is. Varsho's 2022 D was worth 2.5x as much as his 2021 D (inning adjusted).
 
Well Varsho had a 4.6 fWAR, plays OF and Catcher
LGR fWAR was 1 and Gabby was .7 fWAR, so the Jays upgraded from last year... but Gabby is a top prospect and probably a 2 - 3 war player, it all depends on what his ceiling is / power upside... still....
 
Pwner said:
Well Varsho had a 4.6 fWAR, plays OF and Catcher
LGR fWAR was 1 and Gabby was .7 fWAR, so the Jays upgraded from last year... but Gabby is a top prospect and probably a 2 - 3 war player, it all depends on what his ceiling is / power upside... still....
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Varsho's defensive numbers at catcher are beyond brutal. He's an emergency C at most. He appears to be somewhere between good (first two partial seasons) and omg perennial gold glove good (last year...the metrics love him so, so much) in CF/RF though.

I guess we're about to see how good the defensive metrics that go into WAR are, because a 106 wRC+ stick is not an impressive get for a better stick and an elite position prospect on the cusp of full time MLB work at a premium position.
 
Jays probably feel like they can get good production out a Biggio/Merrifield platoon in LF. Not sure I feel the same but the elimination of the shift should help Biggio as much as anyone.
 
(Biggio had more WAR than Lourdes in 200 less PA)
Lourdes power has fallen off a cliff which makes his value questionable going forward as he hits his 30s imo
 
Can't say I love the trade, but a couple of things:

Varsho is really good. And coveted around the league enough that he was always going to cost Moreno+. After some struggling to adjust to MLB pitching basically broke out last year, so there is still upside here with the bat. Dude hit .301 and .313 in his AA and AAA stints.

Definitely not a catcher, but he can play the position so it's a nice thing to have in case of injury.

Not that Lourdes is particularly valuable, but I would have preferred to send out a prospect or two instead.

Also scouts were saying last year that unless Moreno overhauls his swing, he won't hit for much power in the bigs.
 
A Varsho-Kiermaier-Springer combo should provide Elite outfield defense, and Daulton will obviously play some center with Merrifield/Biggio playing some left. And if they want to add one more, 4th outfielders are the easiest thing to find in baseball, outside of first base prospects.

Certainly an interesting guy with 27 homers & 16 steals last year. 2.3 WAR in 2021 (315 at bats) and 4.6 last year.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
How can defensive metrics affect his WAR so much that he's ahead of Vladdy and Bo?
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It all comes down to how many runs your tools impact the game with. If you're out there saving runs with your glove, those are worth the same if you were generating them at the plate.

The problem with defensive metrics is that very good defenders tend to generate significantly different impacts from year to year (sometimes for things outside of your control, like Chapman last year. He lost a bunch of value not having that big ass area down the line in Oakland, and the amount of shifting we do vs Oakland). He went from worth 16 runs above average in Oakland defensively, to worth 4.6 in Toronto. Which would have cratered a bunch of his value if his stick didn't bounce back (he was a 4.1 WAR in both seasons).

They're absolutely important to take into account, they're just way less predictable than offensive value.

So to answer your question...last year Varsho had obscene outfield defensive metrics. He was the best defensive RF in baseball last year by a 2 metric fucktons. Was also a top 5-6 CF defensively on a per inning basis.

If....if...those aren't anomolies, he's the best defensive OF to play for the Jays since maybe Devon White. If they are anomolies, he's still probably roughly as good as Kevin Pillar defensively. A Kevin Pillar with a league average stick with legit pop is a lovely player to have. Just not one that I would give up Moreno for.
 
Deckie007 said:
(Biggio had more WAR than Lourdes in 200 less PA)
Lourdes power has fallen off a cliff which makes his value questionable going forward as he hits his 30s imo
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I've got no qualms moving on from Lourdes. Good but not a great stick that was averagish defensively overall but limited to LF.

With that said, I don't like moving on from him if we're replacing him with a Whit/Biggio platoon. Whit is probably a meh or worse defensive OF that doesn't hit lefties particularly well (~95ish wRC+ over the last 2 years combined). Cavan is a bit of an abortion defensively in the OF, and is maybe league average against righties. That would make 3 of your 5 regular OF's completely abysmal against lefties (Varsho, Biggio, & KK are all brutal brutal against lefties), and a 4th that is below average against them (whit).
 
MindzEye said:
I've got no qualms moving on from Lourdes. Good but not a great stick that was averagish defensively overall but limited to LF.

With that said, I don't like moving on from him if we're replacing him with a Whit/Biggio platoon. Whit is probably a meh or worse defensive OF that doesn't hit lefties particularly well (~95ish wRC+ over the last 2 years combined). Cavan is a bit of an abortion defensively in the OF, and is maybe league average against righties. That would make 3 of your 5 regular OF's completely abysmal against lefties (Varsho, Biggio, & KK are all brutal brutal against lefties), and a 4th that is below average against them (whit).
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Yeah, I would like to see them add another guy that can hit lefties. Fortunately, those guys are pretty easy to find.
 
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