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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

PECOTA Standings as of 03/11/2025​


AL East​

distribution chart		Sim
W		Sim
L		Sim
W %		DC
RS		DC
RA		Div
%		WC
%		Playoff
%		PAdj
%		WS
%		D1
%		D7
%
Baltimore88.473.6.54674166940.631.271.853.75.80.00.0
Toronto85.476.6.52774469721.533.454.934.83.90.00.0
New York85.077.0.52573669220.231.051.233.04.00.00.0
Tampa Bay82.479.6.50970168211.523.134.620.31.60.00.0
Boston80.181.9.4947487466.218.324.512.71.20.00.0

We will see what happens with Baltimore as they have a lot of injuries right now. Though, it would be funny to see the Jays "luck" into a playoff spot this year.

This FO does seem to get lucky a lot in the 2020s.
 
wjhy niot giv
Pwner said:

PECOTA Standings as of 03/11/2025​


AL East​

distribution chart		Sim
W		Sim
L		Sim
W %		DC
RS		DC
RA		Div
%		WC
%		Playoff
%		PAdj
%		WS
%		D1
%		D7
%
Baltimore88.473.6.54674166940.631.271.853.75.80.00.0
Toronto85.476.6.52774469721.533.454.934.83.90.00.0
New York85.077.0.52573669220.231.051.233.04.00.00.0
Tampa Bay82.479.6.50970168211.523.134.620.31.60.00.0
Boston80.181.9.4947487466.218.324.512.71.20.00.0

We will see what happens with Baltimore as they have a lot of injuries right now. Though, it would be funny to see the Jays "luck" into a playoff spot this year.

This FO does seem to get lucky a lot in the 2020s.
Click to expand...
Need a few more season ending injuries from other teams ....lets go
 
any real contract we offered him would be the third largest, given Judge’s is currently 3rd at $360m.

…but it’s kinda hilarious we just skipped past the 400m, 500m, or 600m extensions and went straight to the $700m deals.

In fact the $340m gap between Judge at 3 and Ohtani at two….would itself be the 4th highest contract in MLB history.
 
I'll take advantage of the off day to do a quick update:


Starter Locks

* SS Bichette 27 R: 33pa, 3.0b%, 15.2%, .360bip, .355avg, .258iso, 142wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 31pa, 6.5b%, 12.9k%, .333bip, .310avg, .172iso, 116wrc+
* LF Santander 30 S: 25pa, 20.0b%, 20.0k%, .308bip, .263avg, .211iso, 146wrc+
* RF Springer 35 R: 25pa, 16.0b%, 16.0k%, .200bip, .158avg, .053iso, 74wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 29pa, 10.3b%, 17.2k%, .300bip, .240avg, .120iso, 89wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 30pa, 13.3b%, 13.3k%, .381bip, .360avg, .160iso, 147wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 19pa, 10.5b%, 10.5k%, .167bip, .313avg, .750iso, 221wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 27pa, 0.0b%, 14.8k%, .450bip, .423avg, .308iso, 201wrc+

Bench Locks

* C Heineman 34 S: 16pa, 12.5b%, 12.5k%, .273bip, .250avg, .000iso, 80wrc+



Competition for the remaining 4 slots, in order of playing time this spring:

* UT Schneider 26 R: 27pa, 29.6b%, 22.2k%, .500bip, .368avg, .316iso, 219wrc+
* OF Lukes 30 L: 26pa, 23.1b%, 15.4k%, .214bip, .211avg, .211iso, 131wrc+
* OF Roden 25 L: 25pa, 20.0b%, 4.0k%, .357bip, .412avg, .471iso, 266wrc+
* IF Jimenez 24 R: 24pa, 12.5b%, 12.5k%, .235bip, .200avg, .100iso, 75wrc+

* UT Barger 25 L: 23pa, 8.7b%, 30.4k%, .500bip, .381avg, .333iso, 191wrc+
* OF Straw 30 R: 23pa, 4.3b%, 13.0k%, .500bip, .476avg, .190iso, 192wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 23pa, 0.0b%, 26.1k%, .500bip, .391avg, .217iso, 156wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 23pa, 0.0b%, 26.1k%, .313bip, .227avg, .182iso, 67wrc+

* IF Stefanic 29 R: 22pa, 18.2b%, 18.2k%, .429bip, .353avg, .000iso, 125wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 22pa, 4.5b%, 22.7k%, .250bip, .190avg, .190iso, 47wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 20pa, 10.0b%, 35.0k%, .400bip, .278avg, .222iso, 117wrc+
* OF Clase 23 S: 14pa, 14.3b%, 28.6k%, .125bip, .083avg, .083iso, 5wrc+
 
I hate to lose Vladi and Bo but the MLB is a business more that an entertainment pastime. And any player that really wants to stay with a particular teams has to make some reasonable concessions. In the past I remember some players ( Moliter, Carter, Batista) who were willing to modify their asks to stay. Of course the Jays where closer to the top of their game than they are now so that probably made a difference.
 
I agree with Zeke's starting nine

If i had to guess

Heinemann makes it over Bethancourt ( i'd have offered Grandal a minors deal by now though)
Loperfido over Straw for the CF gig until Varsho can play there, but maybe giving Loperfido everyday AAA time is better
Clement and Barger make up some kind of 3B platoon
Wagner and Schendier make up some sort of DH platoon

Wagner, Barger, Clement and Davis are versatile enough to give whoever needs a DH day a DH day, and can DH themselves to get Tony in RF

Roden plays everyday in AAA until an injury, or a very real conversation about Springer

The rotation seems set with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Scherzer, and Francis

Pen is Hoffman, Green, Yimi, Sandlin, Little, Yariel, Yarbrough, Pop ( i'd like them to sign Robertson)
 
It will be fascinating to see what Vladdy signs for this offseason.

Good chance he has turned down the biggest offer he was ever going to see.
 
manny said:
It will be fascinating to see what Vladdy signs for this offseason.

Good chance he has turned down the biggest offer he was ever going to see.
Click to expand...
Unless there are/were legit bitter feelings, its easier to see a reuinion now in the offseason based on how close they were, and very difficult to imagine any team topping this offer, unless he has an ungodly season.

That said, never should have been in this spot to begin with
 
A couple of thoughts...

  • I hope Springer isn't done. I know spring stats mean nothing, but Springer has been trending down for a couple of years now. If Roden's spring turns into a hot summer, Roden might be a legit better option than Springer. I wonder if they can get any trade value out of Springer? Or if they have to buy him out.
  • Backup Catchers are Backup Catchers 🤷‍♂️ Kirk is starting to get into his prime and starting back in the second half of last year, he seems to have figured out his hitting. On fangraphs, every projection system has Kirk as an above average bat this year. I think Kirk might be a top 10 Catcher this year. You want Kirk playing as many games as he is capable of.
  • Does Varsho make the Opening Day lineup as CF?
  • There is a shortage of good 3B throughout the league.
 
Yeah, Kirk should play more this year so not too concerned about the backup C, though it is fair to say Heineman is a very weak #2.

Lots of hitters battling it out this spring, so it will be interesting to see what happens there. I'd like to see Barger make it, Schneider probably in line for a spot. Roden is a longshot to start the season, but he's impressing everyone right now. I guess Will Wagner was considered a lock, but it would be nice to see him and Loperfido earn a spot.

Would love to hear that Springer took his decline seriously this offseason, would've been a great candidate for Driveline. Great guy, but you gotta produce in the bigs. Projections expect him to at least get back to his 2023 production.

As for Varsho, he's ahead of schedule but is he throwing much yet? I think he may make the team but prob gonna DH for a while until he can air it out.
 
axlsalinger said:
Yeah, Kirk should play more this year so not too concerned about the backup C, though it is fair to say Heineman is a very weak #2.

Lots of hitters battling it out this spring, so it will be interesting to see what happens there. I'd like to see Barger make it, Schneider probably in line for a spot. Roden is a longshot to start the season, but he's impressing everyone right now. I guess Will Wagner was considered a lock, but it would be nice to see him and Loperfido earn a spot.

Would love to hear that Springer took his decline seriously this offseason, would've been a great candidate for Driveline. Great guy, but you gotta produce in the bigs. Projections expect him to at least get back to his 2023 production.

As for Varsho, he's ahead of schedule but is he throwing much yet? I think he may make the team but prob gonna DH for a while until he can air it out.
Click to expand...
I think with Roden, you want him playing everyday whereever that is, and there just dont appear to be enough PA here at the start of the season.

Wagner and Barger should play vs RHP, Schneider v LHP

I'd like to see Loperfido get the CF gig with Varsho sidelined for a proper audition, but if they want him everyday in AAA and to go with Straw, i mean, i guess, but blech.

I think okay C come on the wire fairly frequently, so, Heinemann is fine but keep an ear to the ground, or i dunno, call McCann or Grandal now
 
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