OT: True Crime

[Montana]

"We talk all the time about the presumption of innocence; we act like there's a huge burden on the prosecution to overcome that presumption of innocence; but the fact is that jurors tend to think 'why would they have charged him if there wasn't the evidence? He's got to be guilty'"

that hit home for me as well, couldn’t be more true.

Our brains crave finding patterns so much, I think we are prone to accepting very little circumstantial evidence as being much more damning than we should. (Especially in cases where the defendant isn’t related to the victim)

 

[Montana]

For the first, and hopefully last time, I agree with a Candace Owens.

I’ve always felt confident Steven Avery killed Theresa Halbach……thankfully that means I don’t need to watch her new docuseries claiming as much.

 

[JackBurton]

I dunno, that Nephew of his is awfully shady and he was on the property when Halback was there.

 

[axlsalinger]

For the first, and hopefully last time, I agree with a Candace Owens.

I’ve always felt confident Steven Avery killed Theresa Halbach……thankfully that means I don’t need to watch her new docuseries claiming as much.

good God man, there has to be at least one conspiracy theory you agree with!

i guess Steven Avery is the occam's razor option, but man, so much crazy shit went on in this case that it's hard to draw any conclusion.

 

[Montana]

I dunno, that Nephew of his is awfully shady and he was on the property when Halback was there.

def shady, but for me the preponderance of evidence still points to Avery, off the top of my head his blood in the vehicle, key in his bedroom, her bones in the fire pit right outside his home, him exposing himself to her previously, *69 on his phone when calling her to disguise it was him…

I’d have to go through it again, but I recall not having an issue voting for his conviction if I was on the jury, after I’d looked into it more after the doc.

 

[Montana]

good God man, there has to be at least one conspiracy theory you agree with!

damn, you kinda caught me out there….off the top of my head I can’t think of one that sticks out…..there has to be some, but for the most part I think despite there absolutely being some true conspiracies, if someone chose to never believe any, they’d have a vastly higher success rate than the average Joe.

Im absolutely sure there’s plenty I’d believe tho, with convincing enough evidence.

i guess Steven Avery is the occam's razor option, but man, so much crazy shit went on in this case that it's hard to draw any conclusion.

agree crazy shit went on, and maybe I need to revisit to retest my conclusions, but yeah so often when it’s the last person known to see them or the husband/ex….that the evidence seems to point to, you’re probably safe to assume they most likely did it, statistically speaking.

I do think his nephew got hosed tho…..no one should have to miss Wrestlemania.

 

[axlsalinger]

damn, you kinda caught me out there….off the top of my head I can’t think of one off the top of my head…..there has to be some, but for the most part I think despite there absolutely being some true conspiracies, if someone chose to never believe any, they’d have a vastly higher success rate than the average Joe.

Im absolutely sure there’s plenty I’d believe tho, with convincing enough evidence.



agree crazy shit went on, and maybe I need to revisit to retest my conclusions, but yeah so often when it’s the last person known to see them or the husband/ex….that the evidence seems to point to, you’re probably safe to assume they most likely did it, statistically speaking.

I do think his nephew got hosed tho…..no one should have to miss Wrestlemania.

yeah, it's relatively easy to make the case that Avery didn't do it, but it's complicated by the fact that somebody did.

It's been a while since I went through the details of the case, but if I remember correctly that room was searched at least 2 times before they "found" the key. There's something suspicious about all the evidence, really.

Brendan's story is the strangest part of the whole thing, there is no evidence in the room or the garage to support anything he said in his story, and we know some cops are willing to plant details in someone's head before they turn the camera on, especially someone like Brendan with a learning disability. I find it hard to believe he was involved at all, but just like An Innocent Man, a videotaped confession is a motherfucking strong piece of evidence.

 

[WellPlayed]

And wasn't it a local police officer who wasn't even supposed to be searching the home who "found" the key just lying on the floor? I thought I remembered some state or other police officer who did the first two searches being asked why they didn't find the key, and his response was basically "because it wasn't there"

 

[Montana]

good God man, there has to be at least one conspiracy theory you agree with!

I can dunk on myself and say conclusively that I wouldn’t have believed in Mk-Ultra conspiracy theories until the evidence of it all came out….Gulf of Tonkin as well, depending of any awareness I had of previous military false flags at the time.

Probably plenty more in this category, I’m sure.

 

[Montana]

It's been a while since I went through the details of the case, but if I remember correctly that room was searched at least 2 times before they "found" the key. There's something suspicious about all the evidence, really.

If I’m not mistaken, and all this time later I probably am….but didn’t they say they moved a dresser away from the wall or something and then found the key on the ground? Think the idea was it was wedged in behind it, so when the dresser was moved the key fell to the floor.

Brendan's story is the strangest part of the whole thing, there is no evidence in the room or the garage to support anything he said in his story, and we know some cops are willing to plant details in someone's head before they turn the camera on, especially someone like Brendan with a learning disability. I find it hard to believe he was involved at all, but just like An Innocent Man, a videotaped confession is a motherfucking strong piece of evidence.

yeah I think they believed they knew what had happened, had maybe heard rumours, and coaxed a false confession out of him. 100%…..no part of me believes Brendans recounting of what occurred.

 

[axlsalinger]

I can dunk on myself and say conclusively that I wouldn’t have believed in Mk-Ultra conspiracy theories until the evidence of it all came out….Gulf of Tonkin as well, depending of any awareness I had of previous military false flags at the time.

Probably plenty more in this category, I’m sure.

most of them are bullshit, and it's frustrating that everything is a conspiracy theory nowadays. But I think you're wrong about JFK. There's so much evidence to support the "rogue element of the CIA" over Oswald. And there was so much chicanery with the Warren Report to make it virtually useless as "proof" of anything - same goes for Bugliosi's book.

 

[Montana]

most of them are bullshit, and it's frustrating that everything is a conspiracy theory nowadays.

big time…I miss the days when it was just relatively harmless fun.

But I think you're wrong about JFK. There's so much evidence to support the "rogue element of the CIA" over Oswald. And there was so much chicanery with the Warren Report to make it virtually useless as "proof" of anything - same goes for Bugliosi's book.

All the CIA stuff pales in comparison to the concrete evidence against Oswald, imo.

The other thing with JFK conspiracies is so many of them drastically contradict one another, or run counter to another piece of “evidence” they claim points away from Oswald…..but it’s all shoddy speculative nonsense imo, compared to the pretty convincing concrete evidence against Oswald, that all fits together perfectly consistently.

When something is as picked apart as the JFK assassination across all walks of government life etc, you’re always going to come up with a gigantic amount of “evidence” that yarns can be spun out of….

There are so many coincidences floating around our lives that are just slightly out of our field of view at any given moment, that if you shine a bright enough spotlight on it and discover them all, it seems impossible that something nefarious isn’t afoot. (Imo)

 

[axlsalinger]

big time…I miss the days when it was just relatively harmless fun.


All the CIA stuff pales in comparison to the concrete evidence against Oswald, imo.

The other thing with JFK conspiracies is so many of them drastically contradict one another, or run counter to another piece of “evidence” they claim points away from Oswald…..but it’s all shoddy speculative nonsense imo, compared to the pretty convincing concrete evidence against Oswald, that all fits together perfectly consistently.

When something is as picked apart as the JFK assassination across all walks of government life etc, you’re always going to come up with a gigantic amount of “evidence” that yarns can be spun out of….

There are so many coincidences floating around our lives that are just slightly out of our field of view at any given moment, that if you shine a bright enough spotlight on it and discover them all, it seems impossible that something nefarious isn’t afoot. (Imo)

So many suspicious deaths in 1963-64, and again in the 70s when Congress re-opened the investigation into JFK's assassination ... I'm sure some of these deaths were accidental, but so many under suspicious circumstances, and several just straight-up murder. The odds of coincidence are probably worse than the odds for conspiracy.

I always say that whether you think Oswald did it or not, the evidence is kind of 51-49 one way or the other. There's a massive amount of "but what about?" in EITHER scenario. That's what makes it so fascinating, I guess.

There are still files being withheld from the public to this day. I think it's pretty clear some of them show the CIA knew more about Oswald in the summer of '63 than they let on at the time. Not surprising, as they would have had a keen interest in anybody who had lived in Russia. It may be that they simply show they were negligent in keeping tabs on him, but I would love to see what's in there.

This is probably my favourite piece of "evidence", a photo from 1955 with both David Ferrie and Lee Harvey Oswald in the picture. Of course it could just be coincidence. But they did know each other, even though Ferrie denied it after the assassination.

 

[Preston]

damn, you kinda caught me out there….off the top of my head I can’t think of one that sticks out…..there has to be some, but for the most part I think despite there absolutely being some true conspiracies, if someone chose to never believe any, they’d have a vastly higher success rate than the average Joe.

Im absolutely sure there’s plenty I’d believe tho, with convincing enough evidence.

Correct. It's not that some conspiracy theories aren't true. It's just that they're all highly improbable and well against the odds. Otherwise they'd be the consensus theory, as opposed to the conspiracy theory.

I'm a math guy that simply has a hard to believing anything that goes against the odds. Everything I believe in life, every decision I make in life, is based around probabilities.

 

[Montana]

So many suspicious deaths in 1963-64, and again in the 70s when Congress re-opened the investigation into JFK's assassination ... I'm sure some of these deaths were accidental, but so many under suspicious circumstances, and several just straight-up murder. The odds of coincidence are probably worse than the odds for conspiracy.

definitely not…that’s a phenomenal instance of what I’m talking about above.

I always say that whether you think Oswald did it or not, the evidence is kind of 51-49 one way or the other. There's a massive amount of "but what about?" in EITHER scenario. That's what makes it so fascinating, I guess.

…but the evidence of Oswald is all pretty damn concrete, and points away from it being something set up by the CIA to make him a patsy. Too many key decisions made my random citizens that were absolutely necessary for things to play out as they did.

Like the woman whose nephew who just got a job at the book depository and knew they were hiring, so mentioned it when Marina Oswald brought up Lee needing a job….or the manager of the book depository hiring multiple people the day he hired Lee, and sending half of them to one location (far away from the motorcade route) and the other at the book depository Lee shot from.

His known alias being use to order the carcano…his photos holding the carcano….Marina testifying to Lee admitting to trying to assassinate General Walker a month or so prior….the bullet used to try to assassinate him also being tied to Oswald’s gun.

Marina hearing of the shooting on TV, and instantly worrying it was Lee who did it…..the note he left for Marina that morning, him leaving his wedding ring behind as he left that morning.

telling his usual drive home he didn’t need one that day…..having a odd package with him that morning on the way to work that he claimed were curtain rods (his apartment already had curtain rods, and the woman he claimed to be borrowing them from never discussed lending him any)

Lee being the only book depository employee leaving the scene after the murder….the dozens of witnesses who saw him kill Tippett in cold blood, for no other discernible reason.

There are still files being withheld from the public to this day. I think it's pretty clear some of them show the CIA knew more about Oswald in the summer of '63 than they let on at the time. Not surprising, as they would have had a keen interest in anybody who had lived in Russia. It may be that they simply show they were negligent in keeping tabs on him, but I would love to see what's in there.

I think redacted files show at most embarrassing evidence that Oswald was in contact or on some FBI/CIA watch lists, and it’s been hidden to protect people/families from blame, as he shouldn’t have been allowed to be anywhere along the motorcade route that day.

edit: just saw you alluded to as much. I think it’s just that, and/or other evidence of any sort that would embarrass either agency or it’s agents, or also any CIA/FBI operations they don’t want the public or their enemies to know the nuts and bolts of. Especially if similar tactics are still in use today.

This is probably my favourite piece of "evidence", a photo from 1955 with both David Ferrie and Lee Harvey Oswald in the picture. Of course it could just be coincidence. But they did know each other, even though Ferrie denied it after the assassination.

See you’re catching on! haha….for real tho, coincidences that seem ominous or nefarious are WAY more common than humans understand, and we simply do not correct for it well.

 

[Montana]

Correct. It's not that some conspiracy theories aren't true. It's just that they're all highly improbable and well against the odds. Otherwise they'd be the consensus theory, as opposed to the conspiracy theory.

I'm a math guy that simply has a hard to believing anything that goes against the odds. Everything I believe in life, every decision I make in life, is based around probabilities.

Nailed it. My sentiments to the letter.


I’m happy to be convinced of anything and be proven wrong over absolutely anything, I just need you to bring some evidence to the table that moves the probability in a meaningful way.

and I think the biggest poison to most peoples decision making or analysis are pieces of iffy evidence that feel significant on a first pass, or by using “common sense” but that fall apart once put under any real scrutiny. Too many people go with their gut and trust what seems to make sense when they hear it.

 

[Montana]

I’d mentioned how I’d planned to start a conspiracy theory debunking thread and start with JFK….but then a week or so later Lemino who makes great docs on YT (MH370, DB Cooper, Jack The Ripper….simply going over the available evidence & varies theories, etc)….came out with this Oswald doc that laid out so many of my main points, that it would have felt pointless to type them all out when I could just post the doc.



There’s lots more to pile on to strengthen the he can against Oswald, but to me this touches on a ton of the key points….gives other theories or discrepancies their time as well….but overall makes a great solid case imo, in a short period of time with a really well made video.

 

[Slinger 48]

Good conversation here guys, very interesting. I don't know enough about it to go in depth like you guys have, I've learned a couple of things here today though.

I'd like to read Bugliosi's book on the JFK assassination. I've read Helter Skelter several times and always learned something new each time.

Gonna watch that doc you posted Montana.

 

[Montana]

Good conversation here guys, very interesting. I don't know enough about it to go in depth like you guys have, I've learned a couple of things here today though.

I'd like to read Bugliosi's book on the JFK assassination. I've read Helter Skelter several times and always learned something new each time.

Gonna watch that doc you posted Montana.

Id recommend Gerald Posners book “Case Closed” over Buggliosi’s….just think it’s a better summation of the evidence, and lays it all out much clearer.

 

[Slinger 48]

Id recommend Gerald Posners book “Case Closed” over Buggliosi’s….just think it’s a better summation of the evidence, and lays it all out much clearer.

I'll keep an eye out for it.