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OT: World Politics

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Seriously though, it's this place:

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That's the region the Ukies have invaded, along that corridor between Sumy & Kursk. Kursk has a military airbase, but it might actually be within the AA envelope the Ukies have extended over the area. I wouldn't be surprised if they are using one of those NASAM 2 systems (120km) range near Sumy to provide protection against the Russian airforce. So the counter to that would be to launch from Lipetsk (top right....currently on fire) or Voronezh (no idea what flies out of there, not every airbase is set up to support attack aircraft)

So the Ukies just lit up 1 of the 2 most likely airbases the Russians would use to try to slow or kill this invasion.
 
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some of the Nafo chatter, that isn't reliable enough to repost but something to keep in mind is that apparently this airbase isn't a permanent home to VKS units, it's allegedly regularly used to store ammunition and to....use as additional storage when they're moving planes away from sensitive/dangerous areas.

Kursk's airfield would definitely be considered at risk right now and that's potentially where the units stationed at Kursk would be moved.
 
Nafo sources are saying Belbek airfield got clapped as well.

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That's the one closest to Sevastopol. There is one amazing low res photo online that doesn't really look like anything. This is super unconfirmed, but a lot of people usually somewhat plugged in seem to think it happened.

If they can clap an airbase, they can probably clap a bridge.
 
Fwiw, here's my prediction

This move is a feint meant to force a reorganization of Russian troops and reset the lines of the conflict. The Ukrainians have spent most of their long range missile assets removing anti air assets from Crimea, but they need Russia to move troops and artillery assets from Kherson....and keep them away, for a large enough bridgehead to be possible. There are only a few concentrations of troops available for Russians to pull from

- Vovchansk: Not enough. 25K total even if they give up the entire offensive. But they're locked into a fight right now. Not easy to withdraw if your enemy doesn't let you.

- Northern Luhansk: Again, not enough and what spare assets they have is stuck in on a bogged down offensive up in Kupyansk. It's going to take time to detach and they don't have a lot to spare. Most of this entire front is dug in to defend and out manned by Ukie units in the region holding Kupyansk & Lyman. If Russians pull from here, the Ukrainians can advance here.

- Donetsk: This is where it gets interesting. Making gains on 2 different salients, significant man and equipment advantages in both (the manpower and equipment to stop that was, it appears, set aside for this adventure). Russia would basically need to call the whole thing off and move a big chunk of available forces. Publicly available data suggests they have about 5-10K near Vuhledar, 25K near Marinka, ~60K around Avdiivka, 30-40K around Bakhmut, plus whatever they're using to take ground in new york and toretsk. The bulk of their force is here, but if they strip the 50K they're going to need and move it, shit grinds to a halt and they're probably stuck leaving a solid chunk of it guarding the border from now on.

- Zap: 30K+ north of Tokmak, very much stuck holding a large Ukie force that tried to break through a bunch of months back.

- Kherson/Crimea: 35K doing next to sweet fuck all but sitting there to keep a bridgehead for forming, while failing to stomp it out because of Ukie artillery on the other side of the river.

The Russians have a choice to make, they need troops now, and most of their troops in the country are currently locked into position...except Kherson which is under no imminent danger of large scale movement.

Estimates I've seen suggest Russia needs about 50K made available to get a handle on this and even consider pushing the Ukrainians back. I think the Ukie goal here is to fuck shit up, take as much as they can without overextending supply lines, avoid encirclement at all costs, hold as long as they can without taking heavy losses and force Russia to divert as much as they can be convinced to divert up there. A chunk of it will stay up there forever. That border needs to be defended for the rest of the war...the entire border with Ukraine is now under threat. When enough resources get pulled, the Ukies will come across at Kherson.
 
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I thought i read something that when the liberated one of the first villages the people asked them what happens next and they were like - prepare for a referendum!

i'm wondering whether they're gonna try to make that happen.
 
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