If NYR don't even consider trading Lafrenière, then yeah it's a moot point.
Why I think it's possible from New York's point of view:
1- They've already got $73.38M in contracts allocated for next year's team, with 10 forwards signed, 5 d-men and 2 goalie (Louis Domingue's a journeyman / AHLer, so they might sign an upgrade & send him to the minors). The Cap next year is supposed to be around $83.5M next year. So a hair over $10M for 3 forwards and 2-dmen.
2- Among their notable free agents, they have Kane, Tarasenko, Lafrenière and Miller. I think they would love to re-sign all four, but unless Tarasenko & Kane decide to re-sign there for pennies on the dollar like Bergeron/Krejci did in Bawstun, I don't think it's realistic. If they let Kane & Tarasenko walk, the cap crunch becomes a lot easier. I think it's all but guaranteed Kane will sign there, contract $ to be determined. K'Andre Miller's not going to be signed for cheap, and if I'm his agent I point towards Travis Sanheim's contract (8 years, $50M or $6.25M AAV) as the starting point. Maybe NYR would try to convince him to take a bridge contract, but if I'm his agent, I squash that notion before it even starts.
3- NYR's contract situation is tough for them. The easiest contracts they have to move (Lindgren, Chytil, Kakko) are the ones they would be crazy to trade, and the ones that would be the most obvious to trade (Zibanejad 7 years @ $8.5M, Coleman 4 years @ 3.64M, Trotchek 6 years @ 5.625M, Panarin 3 years @ $11.64M) due to the players' age are going to be extremely difficult to do because teams don't just have cap space laying around. Not to mention New York would be demanding real assets in return, such as picks and prospects, which are worth their weight in gold.
4- While Lafrenière didn't blow the world up, and expectations might have been a little too high for him, he might demand more money than the NYR would be willing to pay. Kakko, for example, with slightly inferior production in his first three seasons, signed a 2 year, $2.1M AAV contract. I'm not sure Lafrenière would settle for that, and would instead point to someone like Kirby Dach, who got 4 years @ $3.5M AAV.
Maybe it's all pie in the sky, but Lafrenière's the guy I'd go for before everyone else.
Other candidates would need to be 21/22/23 with high upside, on teams that are at (or near) the cap limit. Pavel Dorofeyev in Las Vegas, Shane Pinto in Ottawa are some names. There's Zegras & Drysdale in Anaheim, but they have so much cap space available that it's not even worth discussing, they'll be getting re-signed there.
And if I can't get a player with that criteria? I'll just use the pick and see if I can get a defenseman like Sandin Pellikka or Reinbacher at 17th.
