stats nerds, I have someone telling me how Nylander is still not worth his contract and points to Pastas 6.6mil as a guide. Signed one year apart, much different usage until Keefe came along.... This all started by me saying you can't fill a hand with players as good as Willie signed for under 7M a year who produce like him. What can I show them?
Here is a list of everyone who has signed a contract recently for "Willy Money". This is all of course before we deal with things like age (there are some names in here that are signed well into their decline years), and contract length (there's a couple bridge deals), and heaven forbid the advanced mathematics involved in using cap% rather than raw salary (Pasta's cap% is 8.89%, Willy's is 8.76%...Willy did get "less" than Pasta)
K Connor: .96ppg
Point: .94ppg
Laine: .92ppg
Nylander: .91ppg
MaxPac: .89ppg
M Tkachuk: .81ppg
Gaudreau: .77ppg
E Kane: .70ppg
K Hayes: .60ppg
A Lee: .58ppg
JVR: .57ppg
Pavelski: .42ppg
A few takeaways:
- Pasta's contract isn't "recent" imo. He's in the back half of the 3rd year of it now. I'm not including it here, it's one of the best value contracts in the league and almost everyone else's contract looks overpaid in comparison.
- Kyle Connor's contract is great for Winnipeg. Just for the sake of argument, if Keefe Willy is the real Willy, he's fucking shit up to the tune of 1.03ppg
- The only other two comparable, young star players are both on bridge deals. They are going to get paid like a motherfucker in 1 more year (Laine) and 2 more years (B Point). Tkachuk is probably a step down from that group in quality, his 30+ goals last season looks to be a product of Gaudreau having a career year, and high SH%. In fairness, Willy's SH% is a little elevate this season too, but I don't see why the higher quality shots he's taking this season wouldn't lead to an improvement from his usual 10.5-11% mark. 12-13% seems doable and would slot him in as a perennial 30 goal threat. Even if we wanted to argue that Tkachuk is the same calibre, Tkachuk is also on a bridge deal for 2 more years at 7m...he's also going to get paid.
- Nothing that makes it to UFA status and gets paid 7m is worth it....or is it? I mean, if GM's all around the league are willing to pay .5-.7ppg veteran forwards ~7m a year well into their 30's, how much is 7m really worth around the league in 2020?