leafman101
Well-known member
The Leafs getting two 5ths in the deal is actually underrated too for that reason. They still have the same number of picks, just slightly lower odds.
The Fantastically Beautiful Joyously Superfun 22-23 Season Celebration Thread
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Hoss
Well-known member
Interesting to note that he seems to be able to score on the rush a bit, but the majority of his goals come from bang bang plays in front of the net.
This leads me to think that he may have a bit of a scoring touch... similar to Acciari.
What about moving ROR to 3C and put Lafferty in with JT and Willy.
He comes in fast on the forecheck, creates space... gets the puck to the big boys, then goes to the net to get some greasy goals.
Put ROR with Jarnkrok and Engval... and fourth is Kampf, Acciari and ZAR
Preston
MBow30 alt account
If I recall correctly, their odds of plucking an NHLer with 200+ games is around 30% for a late 1st, 22.5% for a late 2nd. In return their 5ths have a ~13-15% likelihood of doing the same. It's kind of ridiculous how powerful and valuable these picks are quite frankly.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Fuck. All these nerds use 200 as the threshold. I'd need to do a deep dive. Brb, I'll be busy for the next few months.
But seriously, yeah the 30% thing for late 1sts is very generous. I'd imagine the majority of those 200+ gamers are highly replaceable low-end of the lineup players.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Yup.
There's 2 main benefits of the building through the draft
1) It's generally the only place you get your hands on elite talent. They don't get traded a lot and they don't move in free agency a lot. So if you want a #1C, #1D, etc your best bet is getting them at the draft table. This though, gets hard AF outside the top 10...so if you're already good and have elite talent, you stand a really low chance of getting your hands on more at the draft. There's really not a much better chance of landing an elite or impact talent 28th in the draft than 58th statistically.
2) Getting useful players through their ELC/Cheap RFA years. This is probably where good teams get the most utility out of the draft table, but it looks like a few organizations are starting to figure out that spending draft capital on NHL bodies who have cheap contracts or with big salary retention does the exact same fucking thing. The underlying fact here though is that getting more than 1 year of productivity out of an ELC from this level of draft pick is pretty rare as well. So more often you're still into paying 1.5-3+ million a year for their early productive years. So what's the difference really if you're giving up that late 1st for an established and good NHL player at a similar AAV after retention?
leafman101
Well-known member
1st round picks are just worth different values to different teams. To Chicago, whose best player is an NPC they are very valuable.
to the Leafs, whose best players will be in the hall of fame by the time a 2025 1st hits his prime, if it’s a good pick, they are worthless other than as a trade asset.
to the Leafs, whose best players will be in the hall of fame by the time a 2025 1st hits his prime, if it’s a good pick, they are worthless other than as a trade asset.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Just a rando draft year (2013) and yeah...even McCarron and Freddy were chasing 200 games and of the guys who broke 200+, only Shea and Burakovsky are players that I would feel an organization actually missed out on having. If Chicago uses our first to draft the next Ryan Hartman or Anthony Mantha....meh.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Honestly not a bad random year to have a 20-30 pick. I'd say 4 of the 11 guys are pretty pretty quality NHLers.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Yup. But how many of them would you be sad to give up for McCabe at 3x2.0?
and yeah, that's a good year for 20-30 picks.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Still seems so out of place to have ROR centering and Tavares on the wing. Yeah, the line looks good, but the whole point was to have some real depth (offensive) on the bottom six. I’m just not a fan of loading up and out of position.Speaking of Mirtle
Mirtle: Why the Maple Leafs really won the Jake McCabe trade. And what comes next
In McCabe, the Maple Leafs added a top-four blueliner for bottom-pair money for the rest of this season and two more.theathletic.com
This trade puts them in great shape for next year. They'll have money to keep Bunting, ROR and Knies and add an impact forward.
I’ll keep insisting they get a real 2LW and have the best center line up in the league.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Love this discussion. Really shedding light on some real inefficiencies with 1st rounders that can and should be exploited.
And truthfully, I think we all sort of have known this, but as a fan, you hate to have draft day become irrelevant for you, and so we probably have tended to want to keep the pick for reasons that wouldn’t improve the team as much as trading them off.
And it all boils down to what you get it anyway. Nick Foligno, Jeannot, or Meier.
leafman101
Well-known member
ROR first 5 games as a Leaf: 1.7 g/60, 2.55 p1/60, 1.01 ixg/60, 64.94 gf%, 52.71 xgf%
He hasn't looked like a diminished version of ROR by the eye test either.
He hasn't looked like a diminished version of ROR by the eye test either.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
getting a talent with some NHL tape and further along his career arc also has value...that's why Hughes traded a mid first for Kirby Dach
hockeylover
Well-known member
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
first round is 32 picks long....and the buffet spread rarely has much in the way of high end food
/goodluck