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The Fantastically Beautiful Joyously Superfun 22-23 Season Celebration Thread

Everyone was basically good at the point of ROR, Acciari and McCabe joining. We were all good with it and everyone thought there was one more bigger move on its way. Then the Engvall and Sandin dumps happened which seemed to almost assure it. And then it turned out those were for nothing and the main remaining hole (2LW) got let completely unaddressed. And now Fat Bastard is playing Kerfoot on the first line and Bunting on the fourth.

How can we be so unlucky that even when all the pieces are there to succeed, management/coaching won't allow the best roster to be iced?
 
Preston said:
Losing him.. okay whatever I can forgive because you can't cut his salary in half. But they could sure as hell have traded for someone else with retention. Nothing was stopping them... And they had a 1st round pick to do so, which was gold at this year's deadline. They decided not to for what reason? If there's one thing that will sink this current roster it's gonna be goal scoring depth. We knew that before they traded engvall and we know that even more now.
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Tragic, tragic shit.

The only redemption here is if the added toughness somehow was the tonic we needed all along and we power through to victory, but I really have a tough time envisioning it. Now add the ROR injury, Lilly pushed out (like how does this kid's toughness not make Keefe wet?), and ZAR and Kampf playing over McMann and Holmberg, and it just looks like an easy recipe for defeat.
 
They can still win easily. I don't think they're an easy out. They just self sabotaged a bit because they hate themselves and refused the opportunity to put them in Boston tier. But it doesn't mean they're fucked. They can still be wrong on that one single day of trades and get the results they need.

Plus maybe Knies is the savior or Murray/Sammy go on a heater.
 
Sure, anything can happen. But with Matty playing like his shadow, it's really hard to imagine a different result this year than last.
 
If Matty is not going to be prime Matty, then basically Marner and Willy have to be the best players on either team each series, with Tavares doing his usual thing, and Matty providing half of what he can. It puts more pressure on the core 4 than any other year, just a step above when Tavares got knocked out of the Montreal series and they were actually down to the core 3.
 
Artnes said:
I like Dom and his game score but the question really has to be asked. If his GVSA model is that good why hasn’t he been scooped up by now?

That manny elk guy showing his ass every week on Twitter even got picked up by a team. Does Dom have the Ebola?
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none of them are perfect, that's why no one should rely on them 100%. Teams rely on models that are not publicly available and likely much more sophisticated. Then of course there will be some GM's that ignore them (which is almost certainly a mistake), and others who rely on them. The answer as always probably lies somewhere in the middle of analytics and scouting.
 
Preston said:
I think it's possible liljegren plays over holl
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I'd be shocked honestly.

The one thing that might save us here is injury. If Holl or Schenn went down, and Lilly had to play. Basically the only reason why Sandin and Lilly got the opportunity they did this year, when Rielly, Brodie, and Muzz were all out.

We essentially need divine intervention to interfere with these idiots' plan and save us.
 
Also, I hope at some point we hear the real story here, and Dubie fesses up.

I still think there's no way he intended for the roster to go final as it was - I'm convinced there was a trade that fell through that fucked things up and he didn't have time to get a replacement deal in place.

It's pretty inconceivable he'd be so stupid. I just don't buy it.
 
Preston said:
His model, like many others, suffers greatly from undervaluing difficult usage. It kills the model for me tbh. Context is crucial with all of these nerdies.
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His model deals with usage better than any. GSVA told us Boston was elite elite when everyone said bubble team. It's stupid to ignore the model.
 
Dont think anyone is saying to ignore it I just think it was as valuable as we believe it to be sometimes one of the smart teams would have snatched it and him up by now
 
They had to subtract someone with salary, and by GSVA Kerf, Jarncrok, Engvall, Acciari and Holl are all roughly the same value, except Kerf who doubles up on the other guys.

Kampf would have been the best bet. Other than that all those guys are the same.

Dumping Sandin for nothing was a killer though. That will haunt them in the long run. Though Gus replaces what he was bringing this year.

In terms of the additions the real value is if ROR rebounds to form, which it looked like he was doing. Because if that happens they add almost 4 GSVA between ROR and McCabe alone. Plus another .6 in Acciari, 2 in Gus and a couple of replacement players.

If ROR stinks then it’s a marginal upgrade at best.

At the end of the day it will just come down to getting more from ROR, Crok, Acciari, Lafferty, Knies then they got from Mikheyev, Engvall, Spezza, Kase, Blackwell or Engvall, Foligno, Nash, Spezza etc etc. we’ll see.

still have never gotten close to the inherited JVR, Bozy, Kadri, Komarov, Brown version.
 
Artnes said:
Dont think anyone is saying to ignore it I just think it was as valuable as we believe it to be sometimes one of the smart teams would have snatched it and him up by now
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it's literally not that valuable ...a subscription to the Athletic cost $75/year..not even a rounding error on what the Leafs spend on analytics every day
 
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