• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

The Fantastically Beautiful Joyously Superfun 22-23 Season Celebration Thread

LeafOfFaith said:
If a goal was scored, but it wasn't xPected, should it even count?

Discuss.
Click to expand...

I know that you're joking here, but the serious answer to this is that if you take a shot from a location where similarly located shots score at a 1% clip, and it goes in...well, it went in, congratulations. But that doesn't mean that you should be shooting from there very often and is a bad strategy to use going forward.

Hockey has more beautiful random bullshit than any other major sport. Which is what happens when you have so few scoring events in a game, but so many potential scoring events, all it takes is a weirdo 1%er to change the game entirely. No other sport has that combination of random fuckery. You either have low scoring events, low scoring attempts (soccer, baseball), high scoring-high attempts (basketball) which all kind of evens out a lot of the randomness.
 
Artnes said:
Leafs runs from 2019-2022 combined xgf% ranking:

5v5 - 4th
all situations: 5th

5v5 splits
19-20 - 5th ( Columbus 20th)
20-21 - 3rd (Habs 10th)
21-22: 9th (Tampa 10th)

All situations splits
19-20 - 11th ( Columbus 17th)
20-21 - 4th (Habs 12th)
21-22: 7th (Tampa 6th)


Conclusion:

we're fucking cursed
Click to expand...
InxPlicable.
 
Artnes said:
Leafs runs from 2019-2022 combined xgf% ranking:

5v5 - 4th
all situations: 5th

5v5 splits
19-20 - 5th ( Columbus 20th)
20-21 - 3rd (Habs 10th)
21-22: 9th (Tampa 10th)

All situations splits
19-20 - 11th ( Columbus 17th)
20-21 - 4th (Habs 12th)
21-22: 7th (Tampa 6th)

Conclusion:

we're fucking cursed
Click to expand...


we've actually outscored our opponents the past 2 playoffs.
 
zeke said:
their stars weren't as good as ours.

well, except for Chara, who they ditched.
Click to expand...


If you made a list of the biggest blunders by an NHL team in the past 40 years, Redden over Chara would have to be right near the top of the list.

And their stars being worse than ours kind of makes it worse, considering Alfie’s Sens managed to win some playoff rounds and make a run to the finals at least. Same goes for the uber-choker Marleau/Thornton-era Sharks.

So the 88/34/16/91 Leafs are currently the biggest chokers of the 21st century so far when it comes to their ratio of playoff success to talent level/regular season play.
 
MindzEye said:
I know that you're joking here, but the serious answer to this is that if you take a shot from a location where similarly located shots score at a 1% clip, and it goes in...well, it went in, congratulations. But that doesn't mean that you should be shooting from there very often and is a bad strategy to use going forward.

Hockey has more beautiful random bullshit than any other major sport. Which is what happens when you have so few scoring events in a game, but so many potential scoring events, all it takes is a weirdo 1%er to change the game entirely. No other sport has that combination of random fuckery. You either have low scoring events, low scoring attempts (soccer, baseball), high scoring-high attempts (basketball) which all kind of evens out a lot of the randomness.
Click to expand...
It's that randomness that makes the nerdies like trying to pitch a tent in the middle of a tornado. It might help a little, but you'll still likely get blown straight from Kansas to Oz if you over-rely on that shit.

What ever happened to Corsi and Fenwick anyway?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
It's that randomness that makes the nerdies like trying to pitch a tent in the middle of a tornado. It might help a little, but you'll still likely get blown straight from Kansas to Oz if you over-rely on that shit.
Click to expand...

Over a small sample like an individual game, a few weeks to a month, sure. But over a larger sample, nah. Bad teams don't win the whole thing. Even the regular season makes a lot of sense when you start stripping away shit like OT losses, shootout wins, etc.

Something like xGF is just the best single indicator of who the best team is at 5v5. Not the only indicator, just the best one available. Hockey isn't entirely 5v5 though of course, and goaltending is also a motherfucker of a thing.
 
But we don't need the nerdies to tell us which teams are good and are likely to be good. We already know. Based on rosters before the season in large part, then performance by way of wins, ROW, goal differential, special teams success, etc. The nerdies usually just confirm the basics.

If the nerdies want to educate us on something, let them tell us who will beat Boston in the playoffs this year. That's what I want to know. If they just point to Boston and then another team wins, what did they do for us? There should be some divergence between the basic stats and the nerdies, not just reinforcement of the basic stats by the nerdies. Maybe there is? I obviously don't keep up with the shit to know, but I don't recall ever being like, holy shit, those nerdies really were on to something that all other information on the surface didn't seem to reveal.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
But we don't need the nerdies to tell us which teams are good and are likely to be good. We already know. Based on rosters before the season in large part, then performance by way of wins, ROW, goal differential, special teams success, etc. The nerdies usually just confirm the basics.

If the nerdies want to educate us on something, let them tell us who will beat Boston in the playoffs this year. That's what I want to know. If they just point to Boston and then another team wins, what did they do for us? There should be some divergence between the basic stats and the nerdies, not just reinforcement of the basic stats by the nerdies. Maybe there is? I obviously don't keep up with the shit to know, but I don't recall ever being like, holy shit, those nerdies really were on to something that all other information on the surface didn't seem to reveal.
Click to expand...

Maybe you should have listened to what the nerdies said about boston earlier
 
It’s not about liking or disliking nerdies — it’s about if you want data that can help you understand what may happen next?

Ie… a team that wins 5 in a row with poor underlying numbers won’t fare as well going forward as a team that went 3-2 even though they dominated every single one of those games…. same predictive indicators (even stronger) occur on an individual level where a player might be on a short term scoring spree based largely on luck while another player might be creating a ton of chances without being rewarded

Most fans spend their time in GM mode here — so nerdies are important part of the discussion but I’m pretty sure everyone here takes off their GM cap when the puck drops and simply want to celebrate a win regardless of salary cap allotments and expected goal percentages
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top