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The Fantastically Beautiful Joyously Superfun 22-23 Season Celebration Thread

Volcanologist said:
more to the point, what is the chance Marchand Bergeron and Pastrnak are going to allow the Leafs to beat them 4 times out of 7 with this kind of supporting cast
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I mean our stars should be better than their stars. If they aren't we probably deserve to lose.

Of course, this is all moot cause Tampa likely takes us out in round one.
 
Which back up what we can obviously see with their stacked lineup top to bottom.

But thank heaven for the nerdies here to enlighten us.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Which back up what we can obviously see with their stacked lineup top to bottom.

But thank heaven for the nerdies here to enlighten us.
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you're either deliberately ignoring reality here or willfully blind.

in the offseason, numerous pundits were proclaiming the death of the Bruins dynasty, etc. consensus among the talking asses was that they were going to regress and may even miss the playoffs.

on the other hand, Dom and his model were like, guysszzzz, you're being dumdums, look at their nerdies, they are gonna be dominant and amazing.

Dom was right. the talking asses were wrong. nerdies: 1; talking asses eyes': 0
 
Wayward DP said:
you're either deliberately ignoring reality here or willfully blind.

in the offseason, numerous pundits were proclaiming the death of the Bruins dynasty, etc. consensus among the talking asses was that they were going to regress and may even miss the playoffs.

on the other hand, Dom and his model were like, guysszzzz, you're being dumdums, look at their nerdies, they are gonna be dominant and amazing.

Dom was right. the talking asses were wrong. nerdies: 1; talking asses eyes': 0
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here's a great example for you, the predictions from nhl.com.

15 different folks made predictions. of those 15, only 1 of them predicted the Bruins to finish in the top-3 in the Atlantic division. and they predicted them to finish 3rd. That means 14 of the 15 talking asses wrongly predicted the Bruins to finish no higher than 4th in the division.

and 15 of 15 predicted them to finish no higher than 3rd.

I wonder where Dom had them...
 
Wayward DP said:
I mean our stars should be better than their stars. If they aren't we probably deserve to lose.

Of course, this is all moot cause Tampa likely takes us out in round one.
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yeah, but I still think we have way more chance vs. Tampa, barring Vasi simply standing on his head (which is entirely possible)

Boston quite unlike the Bolts is near impossible to score on...they are 32 goals ahead of the #2 GA team and over double the goal differential of the next best team by that ranking. Offensively speaking, they're a comfy #2 in the league and they're only that low because the team ahead of them has 2 guys over 120 points. It's taking McDavid to keep the Bruins out of 1st in that category too, essentially.

In a league that pulls gravitationally to its salary cap middle, the Bruins are an absolutely bonkers team this year.
 
Volcanologist said:
yeah, but I still think we have way more chance vs. Tampa, barring Vasi simply standing on his head (which is entirely possible)

Boston quite unlike the Bolts is near impossible to score on...they are 32 goals ahead of the #2 GA team and over double the goal differential of the next best team by that ranking. Offensively speaking, they're a comfy #2 in the league and they're only that low because the team ahead of them has 2 guys over 120 points. It's taking McDavid to keep the Bruins out of 1st in that category too, essentially.

In a league that pulls gravitationally to its salary cap middle, the Bruins are an abolutely bonkers team this year.
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I don't expect the Bruins goaltending to be as good in the playoffs, just based on probabilities. but it could be.

anyways, I'll focus on the Bolts first anyhow. agreed that this year's Bruins are fucking absurd though
 
The problem for me isn't that the Leafs aren't good enough to beat Boston or Tampa in a single series.. Of course they are. I just wonder if they're good enough to beat both. The hard part is when the sample size increases to 2, 3 and 4 series and external factors like luck become less of a factor. That's when you HAVE to be really good on things like the nerdies even when you win a game or a round. Otherwise, it's probably inevitable that you're toast.

Teams outside the top ~5-7ish in the NHL in all the meaningful statistics just don't win 4 series in a row. And the Leafs have been out of that range for an uncomfortable amount of time now.
 
Wayward DP said:
you're either deliberately ignoring reality here or willfully blind.

in the offseason, numerous pundits were proclaiming the death of the Bruins dynasty, etc. consensus among the talking asses was that they were going to regress and may even miss the playoffs.

on the other hand, Dom and his model were like, guysszzzz, you're being dumdums, look at their nerdies, they are gonna be dominant and amazing.

Dom was right. the talking asses were wrong. nerdies: 1; talking asses eyes': 0
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Sure, but there were no nerdies in the off-season, so they were all just looking at the roster and last year’s stats, weren’t they?
 
Preston said:
The problem for me isn't that the Leafs aren't good enough to beat Boston or Tampa in a single series.. Of course they are. I just wonder if they're good enough to beat both. The hard part is when the sample size increases to 2, 3 and 4 series and external factors like luck become less of a factor. That's when you HAVE to be really good on things like the nerdies even when you win a game or a round. Otherwise, it's probably inevitable that you're toast.

Teams outside the top ~5-7ish in the NHL in all the meaningful statistics just don't win 4 series in a row. And the Leafs have been out of that range for an uncomfortable amount of time now.
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I really don’t know that we’re good enough to beat Boston. Tampa, yes. We’ve been better than them all year. Boston? They’re on another planet, so I don’t see how anyone competes with them over 7 games.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I really don’t know that we’re good enough to beat Boston. Tampa, yes. We’ve been better than them all year. Boston? They’re on another planet, so I don’t see how anyone competes with them over 7 games.
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Yet their implied chances of winning the cup on any gambling site, factoring in the vig, are at around 15-17%. Nature of the sport. A 7 game sample is not enough to determine how good a team is. Plenty of goofy things can and have continually happened in such a small sample. Winning 4 rounds is no fluke. 1 round? Leafs are certainly close enough to Boston to give them a good ride.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Sure, but there were no nerdies in the off-season, so they were all just looking at the roster and last year’s stats, weren’t they?
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this tells me you don't understand how GSVA and other various metrics work.

there are always nerdies!

Dom's forecast is based on his model, which uses data from previous seasons to predict outcomes. it also uses data about aging curves. The point of all this is that Dom's model more accurately predicted the Bruins success this year than the talking asses.

i.e. the nerdies were right, the asses' eyes were wrong
 
Preston said:
Yet their implied chances of winning the cup on any gambling site, factoring in the vig, are at around 15-17%. Nature of the sport. A 7 game sample is not enough to determine how good a team is. Plenty of goofy things can and have continually happened in such a small sample. Winning 4 rounds is no fluke. 1 round? Leafs are certainly close enough to Boston to give them a good ride.
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doesn't Dom have them at close to 33%?

and last year Colorado was by far #1.

and Tampa the year before?
 
Yeah, not sure if Dom outperforms Vegas odds, I recall he went on a bit of a spiral gambling because the amount of volatility and randomness he suffered through (which was my main point) - you can bet on Boston right now at 20% implied odds (without factoring the vig) so even if Dom's is more accurate, there's no real edge on Vegas.

And yeah, 21% does not quite back up the opinion that no one has any chance vs Boston.
 
I don't know about no-one...remember, not every team has lost 6 1st rounds in a row and has also suffered multiple previous crippling playoff losses to Boston. that goes into the equation too.
 
Volcanologist said:
I don't know about no-one...remember, not every team has lost 6 1st rounds in a row and has also suffered multiple previous crippling playoff losses to Boston. that goes into the equation too.
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Not gonna deny that it's fair to question the Leafs. But by the logic of assuming another first round exit, it wouldn't even be the Leafs that face them!
 
Preston said:
Not gonna deny that it's fair to question the Leafs. But by the logic of assuming another first round exit, it wouldn't even be the Leafs that face them!
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it's more that the history isn't good vs Boston. that might even be fine if we were talking years later and it's different players...but its years later and the same players
 
Wayward DP said:
this tells me you don't understand how GSVA and other various metrics work.

there are always nerdies!

Dom's forecast is based on his model, which uses data from previous seasons to predict outcomes. it also uses data about aging curves. The point of all this is that Dom's model more accurately predicted the Bruins success this year than the talking asses.

i.e. the nerdies were right, the asses' eyes were wrong
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Just for the record, I don't pay any attention to the asses either.
 
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