zeke
Well-known member
he makes it look easy, when literally none of the other bottom pair options could do it while accelerating out of it like he does there.
The ****ing Pre-Season/Training Camp Thread (2019/20)
- Thread starter LeafGm
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he makes it look easy, when literally none of the other bottom pair options could do it while accelerating out of it like he does there.
zeke
Well-known member
gonna come down to smarts there. jury's out on lilly in that regard.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Career minor leaguer that is considered to be a ++ skater.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
definitely the big question mark with him. Tools were never the question. His brain is and always was.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
His read/react is very good. I know I've been bullish on him for years so I get it if someone thinks I'm just pot committed at this point with him, but my biggest question with him was always his physical development. He looks like he's going to end up as a brick shithouse 6'1 210, with plus skating (though not the elite skating it looked like he might develop pre draft). His hockey IQ is good (though yeah, probably not elite), his passing is plus, and he's got a heavy shot. It's a matter of reps and experience imo. He's going to be really good.
leafman101
Well-known member
Yeah, I think he just needs some time to figure it out. Not sure Dubas would have drafted him, but if players like Zaitsev, Ceci, Polak and 38 year old Hainsey are legit NHLers than I have no doubt someone like Lilly can do it.
He just needs to continue to improve the hockey IQ to play at a quicker pace.
He just needs to continue to improve the hockey IQ to play at a quicker pace.
Artnes
Well-known member
He was great with the Marlies last year to those that paid close attention. And I am not just referring to Jeffler but a few others who follow the Marlies quite extensively
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Yeah, I've read lots of the reports on him and watched some Marlies. Again, I'm not saying he's not gonna make it or be bad or anything like that. Where I've always differed with ME and zeke on this is the ceiling. I see him topping out at good two way second pair. Great value for a 17th pick.
I agree with the posts above that his IQ (i.e., quickness to think/see the play) is his biggest question mark. I'm just not quite as impressed with others on his tools.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Where I struggled (and still do) with that assessment is probably semantic. What constitutes a "2nd pair" defender. If we consider any of the top 60 defenders in the NHL to be top pairing quality defenders, I think we get into some names that I'd be surprised if Lilly wasn't better than.
If we look at just pure offence, Dimitry Orlov was 60th last season with 29 points. If we look at TOI, Zach Bogosian was 60th in ice time. Ron Hainsey was technically a "top pairing" defender despite being the 4th or 5th best defender on the team. It's hard to not call Muzzin and Gardiner top pairing defenders for the majority of their careers.
I don't think Lilly is going to be a stud. But when I look at what should count as a top pairing defender around the league, I have a hard time not putting Lilly's upside there with guys like Dumba, Petry, Severson, Eckholm, Montour, Faulk, Matheson, etc. All guys used as top pairing defenders by their respective teams. I think it only makes sense to not put his upside in "top pairing" territory if we're using what I would consider a flawed view of what a top pairing defender is, the same type of logic that required Rielly to become a top 3-5 defender before anyone would admit that he was a "#1"
BeLeafer
Well-known member
A good 2nd pair to my mind is ...
Can reliably log 18+ mins a game against good to really good comp. Should be able to step in capably on the pk and/or pp. There's probably not a full complement of guys that fit this bill to fill NHL rosters' second pairs, maybe not even half of them.
Can reliably log 18+ mins a game against good to really good comp. Should be able to step in capably on the pk and/or pp. There's probably not a full complement of guys that fit this bill to fill NHL rosters' second pairs, maybe not even half of them.
zeke
Well-known member
Yeah I really prefer to use a "top-3" delineation, because #4s around the league are mostly crap.
For me, that's Lilly's upside - i.e. a guy who can be the complementary guy on the top pair or the Guy on the 2nd pair. Just like muzzin or Gardiner. Or Stralman.
What's thrown everything out of whack is that Sandin just came along and put up an 18yr old season that puts him on a potential #1 dman track. Which instead of just raising his profile, has ended up lowering Lilly's too.
For me, that's Lilly's upside - i.e. a guy who can be the complementary guy on the top pair or the Guy on the 2nd pair. Just like muzzin or Gardiner. Or Stralman.
What's thrown everything out of whack is that Sandin just came along and put up an 18yr old season that puts him on a potential #1 dman track. Which instead of just raising his profile, has ended up lowering Lilly's too.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
For sure, it's slim pickins outside of the top 90-100.
So, yeah, we just differ on the ceiling (probabaly for both). I'd say Lily projects to a 4/3, whereas Sandin would be a 3/2 projection for me. Both could surprise and go higher. Whatever the case, two really good blueline prospects, particularly for where they were picked.
I see Sandin has a Sylvain Cote level guy. I loved Cote but he wasn't a #1 stud.
So, yeah, we just differ on the ceiling (probabaly for both). I'd say Lily projects to a 4/3, whereas Sandin would be a 3/2 projection for me. Both could surprise and go higher. Whatever the case, two really good blueline prospects, particularly for where they were picked.
I see Sandin has a Sylvain Cote level guy. I loved Cote but he wasn't a #1 stud.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
What's the difference between that and a #2 defender though? Other than doing the same in 21 minutes rather than 18 of course.
Atlantic: McDonagh, Muzzin, Krug, Petry, Yandle, Montour, Green, De Melo
Metro: Orlov, Leddy, Dumoulin, Faulk, Werenski, Niskanen, Skjei, Severson
Those are the #2 guys for every team in the west and maybe half of them touch all of your bases for what a good 2nd pair defender is.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Cote was playing in the NHL as an 18 year old. There's no real way to compare them at that stage, particularly with era effects.
This is the thing that gives me pause. Yes, impressive that he's done what he's done at that age in the AHL. But there are so few comparables due to CHL agreement, past development practices, that it's kinda pointless to talk about it in historical rankings.
This is the thing that gives me pause. Yes, impressive that he's done what he's done at that age in the AHL. But there are so few comparables due to CHL agreement, past development practices, that it's kinda pointless to talk about it in historical rankings.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Good question.
I'd say probably ... 1) 3+ mins a game, 2) top pp/pk unit vs. seconds, 3) consistently playing top comp
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Most of those #2 defenders do 2 out of the 3 at most. Very few of them are on both special teams units, a couple play against top comp. I think you're setting all of your bars higher than reality dictates. We're into calling only the top 5-6 #2 defenders in the league (who are probably top 30 defenders in actuality), #2 defenders.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Most #2's don't play with the team's #1's?
Hainsey wasn't our #2 last year, but he played against top competition next to our #1.