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The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

If we sign Perry, you can almost guarantee he will fall off a cliff and we'll have another useless plug cluttering up our bottom six.

I'd be down if he could still contribute at the same level, but you know, Leafs. As soon as they finally get him, he'll be shit.
 
Some notable trades:

2013: Stars Acquire Tyler Seguin, Rich Peverly, and Ryan Button from Boston Bruins for Loui Eriksson, Reilly Smith, Matt Fraser, and Joe Morrow

2014: Stars Acquire Jason Spezza and Ludwig Karlsson from Ottawa Senators for Alex Chiasson, Alexander Guptill, Nicholas Paul, and 2015 Second-Round Pick

Made some horrible goalie decisions like lindback and trading for Niemi but then he got khudobin and bishop.

Signed Pavelski, radulov to nice deals. But then traded a decent amount (the kids traded didn't end up being anything tho) for Kris Russell at the deadline.

A decent mix like every other experienced guy out there but way more good than bad I think.
 
Have any elite economists analyzed the NHL draft?

Richard Thaler analyzed the NFL draft (I know the NHL is a different beast with a much thinner talent pool) and the advice was pretty much: outside of a few sure bets you’re better off trading down and accumulating a ton of picks

www.nber.org

Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
www.nber.org www.nber.org
 
CH1 said:
Have any elite economists analyzed the NHL draft?

Richard Thaler analyzed the NFL draft (I know the NHL is a different beast with a much thinner talent pool) and the advice was pretty much: outside of a few sure bets you’re better off trading down and accumulating a ton of picks

www.nber.org

Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
www.nber.org www.nber.org
Click to expand...
Not sure I buy that. Top scoring forwards are heavily skewed to the first round and nhl talents to the first two.
 
mbow30 said:
Not sure I buy that. Top scoring forwards are heavily skewed to the first round and nhl talents to the first two.
Click to expand...

I clearly pointed out the study was for the NFL. My question was whether nerds have published deep dives into the NHL draft.

I’d imagine that outside the first two rounds, the draft is super random
 
zeke said:
somebody do a deep dive.

other than that crazy draft is he any good?
Click to expand...

I took a look since 2013...I mean I guess we don't know on the super recent drafts, but long story short, it would seem the Stars simply got lucky in 2017.

one thing that stuck out is they've made a number of poor 1st round picks under Nill
 
The first step would be to analyze the number of trades, I think. The abstract notes the NFL draft is “information rich”, which I would assume means there are a lot of observable transactions that allow the authors to construct a “market” with transaction volumes and values.

But it may well be the case the NHL “market” is too thin to construct a similar model and there are strata within the same round (such as this year) which makes categorization tricky.
 
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LeafOfFaith said:
If we sign Perry, you can almost guarantee he will fall off a cliff and we'll have another useless plug cluttering up our bottom six.

I'd be down if he could still contribute at the same level, but you know, Leafs. As soon as they finally get him, he'll be shit.
Click to expand...

But...

He won't be able to fuck us anymore and that alone makes it worth it
 
Volcanologist said:
I took a look since 2013...I mean I guess we don't know on the super recent drafts, but long story short, it would seem the Stars simply got lucky in 2017.

one thing that stuck out is they've made a number of poor 1st round picks under Nill
Click to expand...


Pretty excellent history of pulling impact players outside of top of the draft though.

Imagine we had pulled one Robertson or Hintz out of the 2nd round in the last 8 years....
 
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