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The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

BG said:
..which is to say that he'd be an average #1 centre on any team in the league, except he's our #2.
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Yeah see, this is where it all breaks down.

A guy with okay but just okay nerdies without being asked to handle the heavies, and 41st in 5v5 P/60 isn't an average #1 centre. That's a slightly above average #2 centre.

Even if we zoom out a bit he's in the mid 30's in P/60 among centres over the last 2 & 3 seasons. This is while playing almost every shift with one of Nylander or Marner on his wing as well, so he doesn't lack for high powered play mates.

He's a 2C at 5v5
 
Kerf was fine, but not in a trade Kadri for him and make him your 5th highest paid forward kind of way.

23 goals in 2 years is flat out bad. He couldn’t drive the third line on his own. Total passenger. They couldn’t really afford Kerf being the only non core 4 forward they paid. Dubas penciled him in as the 3rd line center and he wasn’t even close to becoming that.
 
MindzEye said:
Yes, PP production counts too, but 5v5 play is far, far more important.
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I wouldn’t say far far more important…..more predictive? repeatable? absolutely.

…but if you know X player will give you a certain threshold of PP production year over year, or PPP/60…..that’s pretty important and valuable itself. Ovie is gonna average you 15 PP goals a year, it’s pretty important knowing he’s relatively stable and consistent in that production.


ES is always more of the game, more predictive and more important.….but I think people go overboard dismissing PP production, particularly consistent PP production.

21 was overly exceptional from John….but knowing you’re getting at least 10, and more likely than not in the mid/high teens. That’s plenty important too.


….all of which is to say I’d maybe remove 1 ‘far’ 😆



(one or two more PP goals from John would have felt mighty important Vs Florida)
 
For me the thing people miss with Tavares is acquisition cost baked into the price….Normally teams acquiring a player of that ilk, is paying through the nose in draft picks, quality roster players, prospects, etc….and then paying him whatever is left on his last market valued contract extension.

You’re never going to sign an elite UFA for great value in all likelihood unless they’re returning on a team friendly deal, or with zero taxes, etc…..so paying a mill or two a year on top of their market value is to be expected as part of the acquisition cost.


christ, we paid $1.2m of our cap for 7 years, just to get rid of Kessel….so I’m fine paying extra in cap space as acquisition cost, when I’m otherwise keeping my assets.
 
MindzEye said:
and this is fair, I get why someone would assess him like that.

I just can't ride with the idea that you're paying someone premium money based on their power play production.

PP production is generally extremely noisey year to year (JT scored 18 PP goals last season, a career high by 5 goals and more than he scored in the 2 previous seasons combined) and puts the value of a player almost solely in the hands of the zebras making calls (and at the right times)

Yes, PP production counts too, but 5v5 play is far, far more important.
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true, but even 5v5 p/60 for Cs

27. Beniers 2.21 (1.60p1)
28. Zibanejad 2.19 (1.81p1)
29. Schenn 2.13 (1.45p1)
30. Lindholm 2.11 (1.51p1)
31. Bergeron 2.11 (1.50p1)
32. Tavares 2.09 (1.53p1)
33. Ek 2.08 (1.45p1)
34. Couture 2.07 (1.55p1)
35. Kadri 2.05 (1.50p1)
36. Thomas 2.05 (1.52p1)
37. Suzuki 2.03 (1.44p1)


These are all very good players.
 
Montana said:
I’m accepting I’m the one missing it, here…but i am still slightly confused on Kerfoot.…and in a ideal world I’d love to spend that $3.5m on someone else….but like…

23 goals, 83pts over last two years, 164gp.

55.08 GF% (venue score adjusted)
52.79 xGF%
54.05 SCF%
54.01 HDCF%

…and as far as I can tell, looks to have been a decent enough contributor on the PK? (plenty of the above > Mitch or Kaampf, but it less TOI).


Are those all “meh” type numbers for $3.5m third liners? (Legit asking).


Would we have easily gotten better on the FA market for that?….(I assuming yes?)…and if so, who are some of the obvious guys we missed out on grabbing with that money for instance.
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He had a great year in 21-22. But that's the only one.
 
zeke said:
true, but even 5v5 p/60 for Cs

27. Beniers 2.21 (1.60p1)
28. Zibanejad 2.19 (1.81p1)
29. Schenn 2.13 (1.45p1)
30. Lindholm 2.11 (1.51p1)
31. Bergeron 2.11 (1.50p1)
32. Tavares 2.09 (1.53p1)
33. Ek 2.08 (1.45p1)
34. Couture 2.07 (1.55p1)
35. Kadri 2.05 (1.50p1)
36. Thomas 2.05 (1.52p1)
37. Suzuki 2.03 (1.44p1)


These are all very good players.
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and now on top, how many of those 31 also produce at his PPP/60?
 
The most interesting part of that Athletic article is that Vegas has no bad contracts. Florida has one. Colorado has one. Tampa has one, but he wasn't there the cup years.

Its better to overpay top end players like JT then any other type of player, but its even better to not overpay anyone.
 
leafman101 said:
The most interesting part of that Athletic article is that Vegas has no bad contracts. Florida has one. Colorado has one.

Its better to overpay top end players like JT then any other type of player, but its even better to not overpay anyone.
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it is still hilarious how much we in particular got fucked by the covid cap. Like as soon as we sign ALL of our big deals the cap just stops rising immediately. it's unreal really.
 
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