The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

[Montana]

Do we think Kerfoot in a vacuum is a $3.5m value player, but just not one we want/need on our team?


Underlying all this, obviously Dubas and the boys felt that if you have our core 4, and can dominate the high events stretches with them….and then lower the total events when they are off ice, on balance that’s a winning formula? (Guessing he also felt this is where some cap value was?)

That a fair assumption broadly, of the FI take on Kyle’s m.o.?

 

[hockeylover]

I don’t think Kerfoot’s overly offensive at that price point but he always seemed like a tough fit at that amount. I always wanted someone a bit better for 2LW and IMO, you could probably find someone better and cheaper and with more of an identity for 3LW.

 

[MindzEye]

Do we think Kerfoot in a vacuum is a $3.5m value player, but just not one we want/need on our team?

I mean, I guess. I don't see his utility to any team that considers itself a real playoff team.

He's just a league averagish NHL'er without a role or skill of value to a good team imo.

 

[Preston]

Do we think Kerfoot in a vacuum is a $3.5m value player, but just not one we want/need on our team?


Underlying all this, obviously Dubas and the boys felt that if you have our core 4, and can dominate the high events stretches with them….and then lower the total events when they are off ice, on balance that’s a winning formula? (Guessing he also felt this is where some cap value was?)

That the assumption broadly?

It's a slight overpay I think for a 30-35 point guy who isn't great or shit at any one thing. But it's definitely someone they should have tried harder to improve on because there were plenty of opportunities out there to do so.

 

[Montana]

There's no chance Montana isn't Kyle Dubas himself. Then again, I'm not even sure Dubas himself defends Dubas as much as Montana has. This is some next level shit.

I’ll take this compliment to my grave.

 

[MindzEye]

IMO, you could probably find someone better and cheaper and with more of an identity for 3LW.

Yup.

 

[Preston]

Yeah, that was a steal, and then him being available at the deadline was another missed opportunity, which we were both sad about.

He was realgud for Winnipeg. I don't even consider that a huge value signing or fantastic deal.. Market value really. Which IMO speaks to the waste of 3.5m that Kerfoot was.

 

[LeafGm]

Do we think Kerfoot in a vacuum is a $3.5m value player, but just not one we want/need on our team?


Underlying all this, obviously Dubas and the boys felt that if you have our core 4, and can dominate the high events stretches with them….and then lower the total events when they are off ice, on balance that’s a winning formula? (Guessing he also felt this is where some cap value was?)

That the assumption broadly?

In a vaccum, Kerfoot isn’t terrible value at $3.5M—and that’s coming from one of the biggest Kerf haters around.

But as soon as it became clear that he couldn’t play center at the NHL level or fill our #3C hole, which was the specific role Dubas acquired & signed him to that contract for, he just didn’t make any sense at that price point within our cap structure.

 

[Montana]

What’s a good way to pull his QoC over the last 3-4 years?

 

[Leafin']

I still don’t know how to feel about Treliving as the hire. Def not the guy I had initially hoped we’d go for. Then again I’m not sure who was really available of the bigger names(Nill, Armstrong). Very happy Dubas is gone. Never liked him.

they should get rid of Keefe but I imagine they do the cowardly thing and use him as a bullet if things don’t go swimmingly next season.

Some big decisions to be made in the next few weeks. If they don’t get Matthews locked up July 1 and he ends up walking next year then you fire everyone. That would be unacceptable. I think the conversations start now and if you have an inkling that he won’t sign on July 1 you make the decision to move him. Losing him for nothing is not an option.

 

[Leafin']

And Kerfoot sucks. You can bend his point totals any which way but the guy sucks.

as for some of the deals Treliving had to give out in Calgary to get guys to go there… well that’s the price of asking anyone to move to Calgary. No one is moving there unless the price is right. And the price is definitely higher than most other major cities. I wouldn’t judge the contracts so much as I would the talent evaluation.

 

[Montana]

Last thing on Kerf…even if every last one of you was wrong about him (hypothetically say internally his metrics came out to $4m+ value)….if you’re going to keep having first round exits that are so soul crushing, at least try switching out a mid tier piece like that to get a different look.

….which is only magnified if you‘re all are right about him.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Kerf is a mystery. He has amazing wheels, and isn't completely unable to score, but just never got better, and actually tailed off.

If Jarny is only worth $2M, then Kerf is obviously worth less. If he took less than that (say $1.75m) and stayed, I wouldn't be upset honestly because then he'd slot in fine in the bottom six. But he's not likely to take such a pay cut...unless he has to...which he actually might imo.

 

[Preston]

Do we think Kerfoot in a vacuum is a $3.5m value player, but just not one we want/need on our team?


Underlying all this, obviously Dubas and the boys felt that if you have our core 4, and can dominate the high events stretches with them….and then lower the total events when they are off ice, on balance that’s a winning formula? (Guessing he also felt this is where some cap value was?)

That a fair assumption broadly, of the FI take on Kyle’s m.o.?

And one more thing.. Him being a close to market value player is a strike AGAINST Dubas if anything. If the excuse was they needed to spend assets to dump his contract then Kyle would have some excuse for his never ending love affair with the most mediocre bland, vanilla player ever. But I don't think the contract was shit enough for that.. They could have off-loaded him for a mid-round pick and replaced him in-house, signed a UFA or traded assets for another guy.

If you have this cap structure and there's ONE depth piece up front that you spend any money on, it mother fucking CANNOT be Alex Kerfoot. This was obvious to everyone but Dubas long ago.

 

[hockeylover]

I know he had a good goal scoring year but… I am fairly lukewarm on Jarnkrok too.

Also still can’t really figure out what’s to like about Lafferty.

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[leafman101]

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[MindzEye]

Last thing on Kerf…even if every last one of you was wrong about him (hypothetically say internally his metrics came out to $4m+ value)….if you’re going to keep having first round exits that are so soul crushing, at least try switching out a mid tier piece like that to get a different look.

….which is only magnified if you‘re all are right about him.

This is a personal thought and only a thought, but the focus on low event hockey is a main driver to why we've been so "unlucky" in the playoffs.

Every event becomes more important when your focus is on limiting events. Fewer events = letting lady luck determine your fate to a higher and higher degree. Every bounce, tip, post and save becomes more and more important.

When you're the higher skill team you should be looking to increase the total amount of events (within a controlled structure) and not limiting
them.

I also think that our roster makeup leaves us at a "luck deficiency". Aside from Matthews, Nylander, and Tavares we don't have forwards who go to the net with any sort of regularity looking to create potential events. That's where "luck" happens in the playoffs, at the net front. I think publicly tracked xG doesn't address that properly because the shot quality data just isn't good enough (as basically every professional has tried to tell us over the last 5 years).

 

[Preston]

I know he had a good goal scoring year but… I am fairly lukewarm on Jarnkrok too.

Also still can’t really figure out what’s to like about Lafferty.

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5 goals in 86 career playoff games. That isn't bad luck. That's a legitimate sample.

Both Kyle and Tree have acquired them in the past couple of years so this maybe isn't only a knock against Dubas (though Tree added him as a rental and didn't lock him up for 4 years). But that's fine. They can keep him. My issue with Jarn is that both him and Kerf on a playoff roster guarantees their supposed top depth guys won't fucking score.

 

[Preston]

This is a personal thought and only a thought, but the focus on low event hockey is a main driver to why we've been so "unlucky" in the playoffs.

Every event becomes more important when your focus is on limiting events. Fewer events = letting lady luck determine your fate to a higher and higher degree. Every bounce, tip, post and save becomes more and more important.

When you're the higher skill team you should be looking to increase the total amount of events (within a controlled structure) and not limiting them.

It was a fun idea. Low event, hope you get lucky on your bottom two lines and let the core 4 run wild and win you games. I prefer a GM with a bit more ambition to find inefficiencies and build a banger of a bottom 6 that can compete with anyone. The plan failed. It's time to move on and hope the new plan doesn't change a lot, but changes enough to re-shape the way they try to win games.

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

I know he had a good goal scoring year but… I am fairly lukewarm on Jarnkrok too.

Also still can’t really figure out what’s to like about Lafferty.

changemymind.gif

lafferty fast