The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

[MindzEye]

I’m accepting I’m the one missing it, here…but i am still slightly confused on Kerfoot.…and in a ideal world I’d love to spend that $3.5m on someone else….but like…

23 goals, 83pts over last two years, 164gp.

55.08 GF% (venue score adjusted)
52.79 xGF%
54.05 SCF%
54.01 HDCF%

…and as far as I can tell, looks to have been a decent enough contributor on the PK? (plenty of the above > Mitch or Kaampf, but it less TOI).


Are those all “meh” type numbers for $3.5m third liners? (Legit asking).


Would we have easily gotten better on the FA market for that?….(I assuming yes?)…and if so, who are some of the obvious guys we missed out on grabbing with that money for instance.

23 goals in 164 games is kind of terrible from a guy cemented in your middle 6 and getting a decent amount of time with high level offensive players.

242nd in P/60 this season among all forwards. That's very low tier 3rd line production and his nerdies are going to look okay because he doesn't do heavy defensive lifting and is on a very solid nerdies team.

That's kind of my point overall. It's not that he's terrible...it's that he doesn't serve a purpose. He's an okay 3rd line winger who isn't really good at anything other than shot suppression, but isn't good enough defensively to trust him to supress shots against top competition. He's a human swiss army knife. Can do everything okay enough but does nothing actually well.

 

[leafman101]

it is still hilarious how much we in particular got fucked by the covid cap. Like as soon as we sign ALL of our big deals the cap just stops rising immediately. it's unreal really.

Dubas has some real bad luck. take that shit with him.

 

[MindzEye]

true, but even 5v5 p/60 for Cs

27. Beniers 2.21 (1.60p1) - ELC
28. Zibanejad 2.19 (1.81p1) - 8.5M
29. Schenn 2.13 (1.45p1) - 6.5M
30. Lindholm 2.11 (1.51p1) - 4.85
31. Bergeron 2.11 (1.50p1) - 5.0
32. Tavares 2.09 (1.53p1) - 11.0
33. Ek 2.08 (1.45p1) - 5.25
34. Couture 2.07 (1.55p1) - 8.0
35. Kadri 2.05 (1.50p1) - 7.0
36. Thomas 2.05 (1.52p1) - 8.25
37. Suzuki 2.03 (1.44p1) - 7.875


These are all very good players.

I've never said JT was anything but a "very good" player. I've always just questioned if a "very good player" was worth 11 million. Which I think we're mostly in agreement that a "very good player" isn't. We're just disagreeing about the degree to which it's an inefficient cap spend, not whether or not it is.

I mean, I've adjusted your post to include the salaries of each player for emphasis.

 

[Preston]

If you're gonna pay one forward outside of the top 4 real money, he better be fucking good or at least provide elements that the rest of the roster lacks. He doesn't though. He was a waste of time and money. An example of a guy they could have targeted who is better and provides some missing elements from this group up front: Nino Niederreiter. Signed at 4m per for 2 years last year.

Not gonna light the world on fire but he's a far better goal scorer, can play physical and has proven to be able to hang with the big boys offensively if put into that role. Moving away from Kerf last summer to replace him with Nino felt sorta obvious as a base case. Wasn't even asking for much creativity there, though he could have gotten creative too and found someone else instead.

 

[leafman101]

The contracts are by far the biggest red flag for Treliving. Hopefully Pridham is actually as good as everyone says and keeps him in line.

 

[Jeremy]

The contracts are by far the biggest red flag for Treliving. Hopefully Pridham is actually as good as everyone says and keeps him in line.

With Huberdeau and Kadri, his hands were pretty tied though. He was in a tough place and had to make sure to replace Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

 

[Montana]

23 goals in 164 games is kind of terrible from a guy cemented in your middle 6 and getting a decent amount of time with high level offensive players.

242nd in P/60 this season among all forwards. That's very low tier 3rd line production and his nerdies are going to look okay because he doesn't do heavy defensive lifting and is on a very solid nerdies team.

Amongst forwards who played 2,000 minutes over the past two years, he’s 41st in xGF%…..and nearly every name around that range, is good Kadri, McKinnon, Point, Kopitar, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Kreider, Gourde, Trochek, Stutzle, Kempe, Garland, Hagel.

….and again, I asking for explanation more than anything…cause xGF% seems like a solid metric to judge him by, but he’s one of the lower paid guys anywhere around him.

GF% he’s 36th.
SCF% he’s 37th.
HDCF% he’s 34th.

Are these really all pretty empty numbers? (it clearly has to be exaggerating his value, on account of linemates…but so much so as to be kinda meaningless?)….. [hand to god, asking legitimately]

 

[MindzEye]

Amongst forwards who played 2,000 minutes over the past two years, he’s 41st in xGF%…..and nearly every name around that range, is good Kadri, McKinnon, Point, Kopitar, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Kreider, Gourde, Trochek, Stutzle, Kempe, Garland, Hagel.

….and again, I asking for explanation more than anything…cause xGF% seems like a solid metric to judge him by, but he’s one of the lower paid guys anywhere around him.

GF% he’s 36th.
SCF% he’s 37th.
HDCF% he’s 34th.

Are these really all pretty empty numbers? (hand to god, asking legitimately)

All of those numbers are heavily impacted by team, linemate and usage, yeah.

I mean, let's take a look under the hood of just one of those numbers for a second. GF%

Kerfoot was 161st among all forward in GF/60 this season and 32nd last season. What happened this year? Did he magically lose his ability to assist in generating offence when he was on the ice, or was he on the ice with Matthews, Marner, & Nylander a whole lot less and just got very fortunate overall last season? Last season is the pretty obvious statistical outlier amongst his entire tenure in Toronto fwiw. He did an okay job as the 3rd wheel on the JT-Nylander line.

On the other side of that GF% stat, he was 51st in GA/60 this season (all forwards, min 800 min 5v5), which on the surface is pretty good. But again, his usage isn't against top opposition nor defensive zone slanted.

That's my overall read on him. He's not good at anything, but also not really bad at anything (other than goal scoring, his shooting talent isn't good). He's just bland empty calories in a lineup that can't afford to spend 3.5 million dollars on 3rd line winger whose speciality is making sure that as little happens when he's on the ice as possible, but can't do it against good competition. Holding the other 3rd line to low events isn't a skillset I think we need to be paying money for.

 

[Montana]

Amongst forwards who played 2,000 minutes over the past two years, he’s 41st in xGF%…..and nearly every name around that range, is good Kadri, McKinnon, Point, Kopitar, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Kreider, Gourde, Trochek, Stutzle, Kempe, Garland, Hagel.

….and again, I asking for explanation more than anything…cause xGF% seems like a solid metric to judge him by, but he’s one of the lower paid guys anywhere around him.

GF% he’s 36th.
SCF% he’s 37th.
HDCF% he’s 34th.

Are these really all pretty empty numbers? (it clearly has to be exaggerating his value, on account of linemates…but so much so as to be kinda meaningless?)….. [hand to god, asking legitimately]

Last three years (FWDs, min 2,400 mins)

GF% 63rd (tied with Hyman and Cirelli)
xGF% 68th
SCF% 63rd
HDCF% 61st

 

[MindzEye]

Last three years (FWDs, min 2,400 mins)

GF% 63rd (tied with Hyman and Cirelli)
xGF% 68th
SCF% 63rd
HDCF% 61st

I mean, if you're just going to throw metrics around without context after I've already provided context, I'm not sure what we're doing here.

He's a sheltered low event player who has played on an excellent nerdies team and has one offensive outlier season as the 3rd best forward on a JT-Nylander line to buoy his otherwise lukewarm offensive numbers whenever you try to view them in a broader sample.

 

[Montana]

Just to add a few Mindz mentioned, since I have the page up already…

GF/60 75th
xGA/60 23rd
GA/60 65th.

Last three years (FWDs, min 2,400 mins)

GF% 63rd (tied with Hyman and Cirelli)
xGF% 68th
SCF% 63rd
HDCF% 61st

 

[Montana]

I mean, if you're just going to throw metrics around without context after I've already provided context, I'm not sure what we're doing here.

it was already typed out and sent before I read yours, dipshit.

He's a sheltered low event player who has played on an excellent nerdies team and has one offensive outlier season as the 3rd best forward on a JT-Nylander line to buoy his otherwise lukewarm offensive numbers whenever you try to view them in a broader sample.

He was a 35pt pace years one and two, 50pt outlier like you say, and then dipped to 32 roughly balancing out the four years. (unless, the metrics don’t at all follow that similar trajectory….but they seem to.)

 

[Preston]

There's no chance Montana isn't Kyle Dubas himself. Then again, I'm not even sure Dubas himself defends Dubas as much as Montana has. This is some next level shit.

 

[MindzEye]

it was already typed out and sent before I read yours, dipshit.

Apology accepted

 

[Montana]

There's no chance Montana isn't Kyle Dubas himself. Then again, I'm not even sure Dubas himself defends Dubas as much as Montana has. This is some next level shit.

I’m genuinely not defending, I’m curious….like even as described, but ending up in those ranges what is a player like that worth? I even tried to preface that I know Im in the wrong, I’m just trying to understand how, and to what extent $$ wise.

Literally the first thing id bring up to friends in any offseason discussion, was ditching Kerfoot to fantasy GM that money elsewhere.


(I am curious tho [a] why did the Leafs value him more than the public and Does his bland style, low event play bias our view of the actual value he brought. Potentially partially answering some of [a])



2020-21



2021-22


^Christ, knew he played with them a lot….didn’t realize it was 60% with JT




2022-23

 

[MindzEye]

He was a 40pt pace years one and two

lol no

Yr 1: 35
Yr 2: 34
Yr 3: 51
Yr 4: 32

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I've never said JT was anything but a "very good" player. I've always just questioned if a "very good player" was worth 11 million. Which I think we're mostly in agreement that a "very good player" isn't. We're just disagreeing about the degree to which it's an inefficient cap spend, not whether or not it is.

I mean, I've adjusted your post to include the salaries of each player for emphasis.

For all the complaining though, here's what it boils down to.

1 - You don't get to sign the top UFA for less than market, and also get him to take less term (unless he himself wants to), and only get the prime benefit of the initial years and not the inevitable drop off in the final years.

2 - Most of you were all nervous about how the last few years of his deal could be a disaster, but there we are five years later, and while he's not as good 5v5, he's still an awesome player who is able to pop more than 35 goals and is a key part of our PP.

3 - Discounting his abilities and production just because he is great on the PP (where we're locked in their zone and he does what he does best, by having a little more time and space in the corners and in front of the net) is overlooking the fact that being great on the PP is not automatic. You have to be pretty great to begin with. Why doesn't everyone fill the net like McDavid and Drai do on the PP? Because it's not so fucking easy.

4 - We still have excellent strength with him down the middle with a Matty-Tavares one-two punch. He is still a very, very good weapon to have on the team. Are you really going to be complaining if he scores another 70-80 goals in his final two years? Like, is this actually a problem that warrants all the griping and whining?

5 - What is the amazing alternative scenario you're all pining for? So, if Tavares expired this year, what would you go with the $11M that is burning your asses so bad? Right now we've got $10M or more to spend while he's still on the roster, so who are we spending it on? Is there any reasonable assurance that we're going to land some top player with it in the $7M/$8M territory, or are we more likely to only be able to add more secondary talent? If the $11M got wiped out, we'd have a very hard time replacing Tavares, too difficult to make it worth it to free up those extra few mill that the tears are flowing over. What's the overpay? $3M right now? Who the fuck are we dying to spend the $3M on that we can't get anyway with all the space we have and keep Tavares? Which PPG 1C/2C do we then get to replace Tavares (I don't see any remotely comparable player going UFA), and what other assets do we give up to get him? I promise, that extra $3M for the next two years is not the difference between us winning the cup or not.

Bottom line, there has never been a more wasteful discussion than the one about Tavares being overpaid.

 

[Montana]

On the other side of that GF% stat, he was 51st in GA/60 this season (all forwards, min 800 min 5v5), which on the surface is pretty good. But again, his usage isn't against top opposition nor defensive zone slanted.

I think I might also be just not properly visualizing where some of these numbers place him or something….cause to me, even with your caveats, doesn’t 51st in GA/60 seem good?


maybe it’s because when we go out three years, and have a fair minute restriction for a three year span, you’re just ditching way too many superior players who missed a year, or we’re rookies/sophomores, and any combination of those.

lol no

Yr 1: 35
Yr 2: 34
Yr 3: 51
Yr 4: 32

thanks, no idea how I fucked that up.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

If you're gonna pay one forward outside of the top 4 real money, he better be fucking good or at least provide elements that the rest of the roster lacks. He doesn't though. He was a waste of time and money. An example of a guy they could have targeted who is better and provides some missing elements from this group up front: Nino Niederreiter. Signed at 4m per for 2 years last year.

Not gonna light the world on fire but he's a far better goal scorer, can play physical and has proven to be able to hang with the big boys offensively if put into that role. Moving away from Kerf last summer to replace him with Nino felt sorta obvious as a base case. Wasn't even asking for much creativity there, though he could have gotten creative too and found someone else instead.

Yeah, that was a steal, and then him being available at the deadline was another missed opportunity, which we were both sad about.

 

[MindzEye]

I think I might also be just not appreciating where some of these numbers place him either or something….cause to me, even with your caveats, doesn’t 51st in GA/60 seem good?

Sure, it's fine. I think it aligns with what I call him. A low event/shot suppression guy who can't handle heavy matchup hockey.

He's a good defensive forward as long as he's not played against good offensive hockey players. But for me it always comes back to my root question with him.

He doesn't score goals/produce offence at average or better rates. He doesn't check against quality opposition. He doesn't play physical "playoff" hockey.

His calling card is that he's a solid defensive forward as long as you're not expecting him to do it against top opposition. Which imo is of extremely limited utility to a team that considers deep playoff runs as the expected level of success.