The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

[MindzEye]

Assuming we can dump murray this offseason we have a ton of flexibility... biggest key is figuring out what Matty and Styles will cost in the following years.

Matthews probably 12.5-13.0 ish.

Mackinnon's 12.6 starts next year and is the new high water mark. Can't see Auston asking for much more than that.

Willy is probably somewhere in the 9 million dollar range with the Forsberg deal (8.5) the low water mark and the Johnny G deal (9.75) being the high water mark. So really only one Kerfoot's difference in combined cap hit.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Yeah those press box tirades on national television just prove that he crumbled under the pressure (because this time his job really was on the line) and he's in over his head. He can't function in a media fishbowl like Toronto. He needs to go and so does Shanahan and Keefe. If they can't bear to fuck with the core four then they need to clean house upstairs and behind the bench. This stay the course BS won't get them anywhere. The needle has barely moved in 7 years. At some point you simply have to admit the reality that it didn't work and that doing more of the same won't work either. Cosmetic changes will only produce cosmetic results.

It's not a cosmetic change to let all the UFAs walk and replace them up and down the lineup with speed, skill, and youth.

That's a significant change that probably takes this squad up to the level it needs to be to break through.

And the only way to ensure the personnel is utilized properly is to get rid of the guy who obviously refuses to do so by dropping or benching guys like Lilly and Holmberg who did nothing but impress and earn their spots.

 

[trujaysfan]

Matthews probably 12.5-13.0 ish.

Mackinnon's 12.6 starts next year and is the new high water mark. Can't see Auston asking for much more than that.

Willy is probably somewhere in the 9 million dollar range with the Forsberg deal (8.5) the low water mark and the Johnny G deal (9.75) being the high water mark. So really only one Kerfoot's difference in combined cap hit.

I factored in Robertson/kneis/mcmann/holmberg all in the lineup. Resigned Accari/schenn annd O'Rielly at 5MM we had almost 7 to play with next season.

Being able to move murray is a must this offseason.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Matthews probably 12.5-13.0 ish.

Mackinnon's 12.6 starts next year and is the new high water mark. Can't see Auston asking for much more than that.

Willy is probably somewhere in the 9 million dollar range with the Forsberg deal (8.5) the low water mark and the Johnny G deal (9.75) being the high water mark. So really only one Kerfoot's difference in combined cap hit.

Sounds about right. Except Matty's timing was bad to go from 60 goals down to 40 and then a goalless second round. I think that needs to cost him, and I never was buying the earlier estimates here of the $14m range, which wasn't going to happen since Marner is going to demand close to whatever Matty gets, and that's untenable. If we're talking 8 years, that $12.6m should be the ceiling.

Willy may need more than $9M too. But I could see that as a very reasonable stopping point for both sides on 8 years.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I factored in Robertson/kneis/mcmann/holmberg all in the lineup. Resigned Accari/schenn annd O'Rielly at 5MM we had almost 7 to play with next season.

Being able to move murray is a must this offseason.

I honestly don't see that much value in ROR. I want to, I really do, but I don't. Especially if there's a 3+ year commitment on that contract, which at minimum there will be, that could end up being a big waste of $5M for a guy who really just slots in as 3C. I wouldn't cry over bringing him back, but I also wouldn't celebrate. Very much the same feeling as when we got him at the deadline.

 

[MindzEye]

I factored in Robertson/kneis/mcmann/holmberg all in the lineup. Resigned Accari/schenn annd O'Rielly at 5MM we had almost 7 to play with next season.

Being able to move murray is a must this offseason.

Worst case scenarios are that he's traded at 50% retention (so we carry a 2.35ish million dollar hit) or we buy him out and it's like 700K of a hit next season, 2 million the season after.

But most of the savings their will just go to Sammy.

But yeah, there should be money to work with this summer.

Assuming that no big moves are made and we're just rearranging deck chairs, keep ROR & Acciari but punt some others (Kerf and Holl can definitely go, Lafferty should, Jarnkrok meh, Bunting gone, fuck off ZAR)

Tavares-Matthews-Nylander
Robertson-XXXXX-Marner
Knies-ROR (~5.5)-Jarnkrok
Steeves-Holmberg-Acciari(~1.25)
McMann

Rielly-Lilly
McCabe-Brodie
Gio-Timmins
Schenn

Sammy (~3)
Woll

I've got that in at about 75-76 million (so about 7-8 million in cap) but with no obvious 2C's available.

Possible trade targets (not opinions/suggestions on the players, just lining up players who could theoretically fill the role of 2C and might be available)

Kadri: 7M x a lot
Nuge: 5.1M x a lot
JT Miller: 8M x a lot
Brock Nelson: 6M x 2
B Schenn: 6.5 x 5
D Strome: 5x5
PLD: RFA
Kuznetsov: 7.8x2
Hayes: 7.1x3
Compher: UFA
Jenner: 3.75x3
Pageau: 5Mx3

 

[thehabhater]

Worst case scenarios are that he's traded at 50% retention (so we carry a 2.35ish million dollar hit) or we buy him out and it's like 700K of a hit next season, 2 million the season after.

But most of the savings their will just go to Sammy.

But yeah, there should be money to work with this summer.

Assuming that no big moves are made and we're just rearranging deck chairs, keep ROR & Acciari but punt some others (Kerf and Holl can definitely go, Lafferty should, Jarnkrok meh, Bunting gone, fuck off ZAR)

Tavares-Matthews-Nylander
Robertson-XXXXX-Marner
Knies-ROR (~5.5)-Jarnkrok
Steeves-Holmberg-Acciari(~1.25)
McMann

Rielly-Lilly
McCabe-Brodie
Gio-Timmins
Schenn

Sammy (~3)
Woll

I've got that in at about 75-76 million (so about 7-8 million in cap) but with no obvious 2C's available.

Possible trade targets (not opinions/suggestions on the players, just lining up players who could theoretically fill the role of 2C and might be available)

Kadri: 7M x a lot
Nuge: 5.1M x a lot
JT Miller: 8M x a lot
Brock Nelson: 6M x 2
B Schenn: 6.5 x 5
D Strome: 5x5
PLD: RFA
Kuznetsov: 7.8x2
Hayes: 7.1x3
Compher: UFA
Jenner: 3.75x3
Pageau: 5Mx3

Who do you pencil in to replace Robertson once he gets injured flossing his teeth?

 

[fergy57]

If Dubas goes, I'm going way off board here, but how about Wickenheiser as GM?

 

[thehabhater]

If Dubas goes, I'm going way off board here, but how about Wickenheiser as GM?

Well, she's brilliant, has a hockey mind, and would probably be successful.

That might not work in Toronto.

 

[MindzEye]

If Dubas goes, I'm going way off board here, but how about Wickenheiser as GM?

Eh, no.

I'm welcome to seeing her as part of the advisory group that helps make decisions, but until she has some pretty significant seasoning on that side of the business and shows aptitude for it, nah.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Worst case scenarios are that he's traded at 50% retention (so we carry a 2.35ish million dollar hit) or we buy him out and it's like 700K of a hit next season, 2 million the season after.

But most of the savings their will just go to Sammy.

But yeah, there should be money to work with this summer.

Assuming that no big moves are made and we're just rearranging deck chairs, keep ROR & Acciari but punt some others (Kerf and Holl can definitely go, Lafferty should, Jarnkrok meh, Bunting gone, fuck off ZAR)

Tavares-Matthews-Nylander
Robertson-XXXXX-Marner
Knies-ROR (~5.5)-Jarnkrok
Steeves-Holmberg-Acciari(~1.25)
McMann

Rielly-Lilly
McCabe-Brodie
Gio-Timmins
Schenn

Sammy (~3)
Woll

I've got that in at about 75-76 million (so about 7-8 million in cap) but with no obvious 2C's available.

Possible trade targets (not opinions/suggestions on the players, just lining up players who could theoretically fill the role of 2C and might be available)

Kadri: 7M x a lot
Nuge: 5.1M x a lot
JT Miller: 8M x a lot
Brock Nelson: 6M x 2
B Schenn: 6.5 x 5
D Strome: 5x5
PLD: RFA
Kuznetsov: 7.8x2
Hayes: 7.1x3
Compher: UFA
Jenner: 3.75x3
Pageau: 5Mx3

Sincerely, what did you like so much about ROR that you'd consider $5.5m with term?

 

[MindzEye]

Sincerely, what did you like so much about ROR that you'd consider $5.5m with term?

I've already told you, but you didn't like what I had to say. He's basically Tavares without the shot, but better at controlling board play and can be trusted to handle heavy defensive lifting. At 5.5 I can live with that.

After seeing him play with a bit of talent around him, I'm willing to give him a mulligan on his St Louis offensive numbers this season. His most common linemates this year were Brandon Saad and Josh Leivo. You're not going to generate a ton of offence getting extreme defensive usage with those two on your wing

In absence of a really good #2C (which I just don't see available tbh), I'm good with having 2 guys at the ROR level (Good 2 way centres that can put up 45-50+ points without premium PP usage) there instead, and I'm good with the cap spend.

We should never, ever, ever be in the position again where a coach feels like David Kampf is his best choice to match up against top 6 centres.

Fucking ever. Go get strong up the middle, we haven't been for a few years now. Tavares stopped being a really good centre about 2 years ago and we haven't had a 3C of functioning note since Kadri.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I've already told you, but you didn't like what I had to say. He's basically Tavares without the shot, but better at controlling board play and can be trusted to handle heavy defensive lifting. At 5.5 I can live with that.

After seeing him play with a bit of talent around him, I'm willing to give him a mulligan on his St Louis offensive numbers this season. His most common linemates this year were Brandon Saad and Josh Leivo. You're not going to generate a ton of offence getting extreme defensive usage with those two on your wing

In absence of a really good #2C (which I just don't see available tbh), I'm good with having 2 guys at the ROR level (Good 2 way centres that can put up 45-50+ points without premium PP usage) there instead, and I'm good with the cap spend.

We should never, ever, ever be in the position again where a coach feels like David Kampf is his best choice to match up against top 6 centres.

Fucking ever. Go get strong up the middle, we haven't been for a few years now. Tavares stopped being a really good centre about 2 years ago and we haven't had a 3C of functioning note since Kadri.

I just didn't see the offensive game from ROR at all, except for literally just that hat trick at the start. He looks like much more of a plugger than a guy with skill these days, and he mostly had great linemates. I didn't see him set up anything, and other than his hat trick, his goals were few and far between and terrible frankly. I beyond trust him to be 3C, but I'd feel sick paying him $5.5m to do that, and I think that's where he maxes out.

Just remember how much worse our PP looked with him there instead of Willy. He was so, so much worse, it was like having Kampf out there, just slower.

 

[zeke]

Since the day we traded for ROR

Even Strength Paces

Marner 18gls/71pts
Matthews 34gls/62pts
O'Reilly 17gls/46pts
Nylander 22gls/45pts
Tavares 16gls/39pts


With ROR taking by far the toughest matchups with by far the worst linemates.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

First of all, who were his by far worst linemates? Tavares, Willy, Knies?

And PP means something. He racked up shit points, and then did nothing locked into the PP in the second round with Willy watching on the bench.

 

[MindzEye]

ROR had 14 EV points in 24 total games as a Leaf. Tavares had 10 EV points over his final 24 games of the season (incl playoffs)

Not sure what you're seeing.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

He had 3 goals and 1 assist in his first game, 1 goal the rest of the regular season.

3 goals in the playoffs. One was that game tying goal in the last minute that was a flub, another was the one where Marner danced and then fed him an open net. And one that Knies left for him on the goal line that he tapped in.

Stats do you no favors with this guy.

 

[Hoss]

Yep.

He was right the first time. Just because Kappy, Johnson, Connor Brown, etc, etc weren't the right mix of skill depth, doesn't mean the philosophy itself was wrong. But we've gone over to a bunch of depth players who can't get a shot on net on a 4 on 1 for fuck sakes.

I get this perspective, but I'm starting to feel that we need a big dirty player somewhere in our line up. Corey Perry type of asshole that will go anywhere to get a chance to get a goal and hurt people.

Marner can't play in there. I'm scared for Matthews too, and JT just doesn't have it in him.

Higher up in the line up..like Wilson and you're paying a price...but we need some of those players...yanni gourde types.

That's why I'm all over the marner trade. That's the domino and the culture leader of that room. It needs to go....

 

[MindzEye]

Gotta fight your way to the front of the net to be there for a tap in, have to read the play to know where to go.

People have been bad mouthing ROR for how he "looks" out there since Junior. He's a better centre than JT is at this point, point blank period. If I'm stuck with that cunt, move him on Matthews wing so we can keep padding his stats but go get me a few guys who can play the position still. ROR can still play the position, and well.

 

[Hoss]

Worst case scenarios are that he's traded at 50% retention (so we carry a 2.35ish million dollar hit) or we buy him out and it's like 700K of a hit next season, 2 million the season after.

But most of the savings their will just go to Sammy.

But yeah, there should be money to work with this summer.

Assuming that no big moves are made and we're just rearranging deck chairs, keep ROR & Acciari but punt some others (Kerf and Holl can definitely go, Lafferty should, Jarnkrok meh, Bunting gone, fuck off ZAR)

Tavares-Matthews-Nylander
Robertson-XXXXX-Marner
Knies-ROR (~5.5)-Jarnkrok
Steeves-Holmberg-Acciari(~1.25)
McMann

Rielly-Lilly
McCabe-Brodie
Gio-Timmins
Schenn

Sammy (~3)
Woll

I've got that in at about 75-76 million (so about 7-8 million in cap) but with no obvious 2C's available.

Possible trade targets (not opinions/suggestions on the players, just lining up players who could theoretically fill the role of 2C and might be available)

Kadri: 7M x a lot
Nuge: 5.1M x a lot
JT Miller: 8M x a lot
Brock Nelson: 6M x 2
B Schenn: 6.5 x 5
D Strome: 5x5
PLD: RFA
Kuznetsov: 7.8x2
Hayes: 7.1x3
Compher: UFA
Jenner: 3.75x3
Pageau: 5Mx3

I like the b. Schenn if it were a bit shorter. Schenn is a player that plays a tough play off style.

Followed by Jenner