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The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

zeke said:
Yeah but Anyone-Matthews-Marner has kinda been the best line in the NHL for a few years now. Though maybe not quite as good last year.
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well ya Matthews was crippled in relative terms

Matthews trainer was asked recently how he's looking and the answer was "he's gonna score 80 goals and win MVP"

50-60 goals and 100-120 points is a completely reasonable prediction for him this year, as he's already done it over 70-75 games and is in his prime.

I think a big key is going to be what kind of threat Static Klingberg can be from the PP point. I think teams have been able to blunt the Leafs PP to an extent by not needing to pay attention to a threat high. This enables bus parking more by taking away the number of plays you have to defend. The Leafs should be much closer to the Oilers numbers by the talent they can throw out there. I feel like the Marner/Matthews combo is able to be over-defended by other teams. their numbers should be close to tops.. you have a top 5 playmaker and the best goalscorer in hockey this side of McDavid.
 
Volcanologist said:
well ya Matthews was crippled in relative terms

Matthews trainer was asked recently how he's looking and the answer was "he's gonna score 80 goals and win MVP"

50-60 goals and 100-120 points is a completely reasonable prediction for him this year, as he's already done it over 70-75 games and is in his prime.

I think a big key is going to be what kind of threat Static Klingberg can be from the PP point. I think teams have been able to blunt the Leafs PP to an extent by not needing to pay attention to a threat high. This enables bus parking more by taking away the number of plays you have to defend. The Leafs should be much closer to the Oilers numbers by the talent they can throw out there. I feel like the Marner/Matthews combo is able to be over-defended by other teams. their numbers should be close to tops.. you have a top 5 playmaker and the best goalscorer in hockey this side of McDavid.
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the Leafs biggest issue on the PP is the number of opportunities they get. they've been atop (or near the top) the league for years in efficiency.
 
yeah, last 3yrs 5v4 PP:

Goals per 60min

1. EDM 10.89
2. TOR 9.12
3. TBL 8.53
4. DAL 8.49
5. STL 8.46

xGoals per 60min

1. EDM 9.60
2. TOR 9.23
3. NYR 8.70
4. DAL 8.20
5. FLA 8.15


Not sure we're going to get much better than that on the PP. And I'm willing to admit that McDavid-Draisaitl is just better on the PP, specifically due to their McD-to-Drai one-timer ability. That play is money.
 
Wayward DP said:
the Leafs biggest issue on the PP is the number of opportunities they get. they've been atop (or near the top) the league for years in efficiency.
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cool but I'm talking about playoffs. I always will be, for the way the team currently is. we know they can score vs Columbus in January when nobody gives a fuck.

To get more specific, the last 2 years the Leafs have gone 10 for 49 against Tampa. And it completely dries up in the important games...

In the final 4 games of the 2022 series, they went 1 for 10

In the final 4 games of the 2023 series, they went 2 for 11

Against the Panthers, exact same thing, 2 for 11 in the series.

They aren't efficient when it counts, that's for sure.
 
Volcanologist said:
cool but I'm talking about playoffs. I always will be, for the way the team currently is. we know they can score vs Columbus in January when nobody gives a fuck.

To get more specific, the last 2 years the Leafs have gone 10 for 49 against Tampa. And it completely dries up in the important games...

In the final 4 games of the 2022 series, they went 1 for 10

In the final 4 games of the 2023 series, they went 2 for 11

Against the Panthers, exact same thing, 2 for 11 in the series.

They aren't efficient when it counts, that's for sure.
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There is a point here, but it could be our own internal bias creeping in from watching them so often. I'd love to see a "volatility" or "consistency" metric that compares the dips and hot streaks of the Leafs PP over the years with other teams. It certainly feels like the Leafs go from blazing out of control hot to ice fucking "I can't even string together a pass" cold more often than most teams but that could be inaccurate since I don't really follow other teams as much.
 
zeke said:
Thing is i blame our playoffs pp issues still on Matthews and Marner.
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that's fair too but I'd like to see us support them with at least league average blueline offence. seems reasonable for a contending team. I don't see how we can be bottom of the barrel in anything and expect to win 4 playoff rounds.
 
Volcanologist said:
that's fair too but I'd like to see us support them with at least league average blueline offence. seems reasonable for a contending team. I don't see how we can be bottom of the barrel in anything and expect to win 4 playoff rounds.
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absolutely, especially 5v5....which Klingberg most definitely helps with.

question is whether he can do it without giving up just as much on the other end.
 
and yeah maybe Klingberg's shot does open up the PP in the playoffs when they really dial down on matthews.

Mo was unbelievable in the playoffs this year, but that was all 5v5 offense.
 
zeke said:
Yeah but Anyone-Matthews-Marner has kinda been the best line in the NHL for a few years now. Though maybe not quite as good last year.
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Yeah, if Willy is a thing at centre, we get to balance our top 9 pretty pretty well for the first time since Naz was around and Matty-Marny just don't need the help.

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Nylander-Bertuzzi
Domi-Tavares-Jarnkrok

Is probably the way if Robbie is ready to stay healthy and put it together. Shuffle the wingers around a bit and slot Holmberg in if he's not.
 
Volcanologist said:
this is again why trading Sandin like that is so bonkers. you have like 1 guy who can make a skilled pass ffs. and you didn't even get anything back that really helps you or addresses that need in return. fuck me.
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agreed he'll probably be good there but to be fair, Sandin's disappointing production was kind of a problem last year. McCabe was probably an offensive upgrade on him.


5v5 production last 2yrs:

Player: p/60 - p1/60 - g/60

Rielly 1.29 - 0.89 - 0.23
Klingberg 1.03 - 0.76 - 0.22
Liljegren 1.03 - 0.56 - 0.28
Giordano 0.98 - 0.53 - 0.13
McCabe 0.96 - 0.51 - 0.14
Brodie 0.87 - 0.46 - 0.14
Timmins 1.18 - 0.66 - 0.26
Benoit 0.43 - 0.18 - 0.12



Selected Bluelines Last year

Leafs:

Rielly 1.05 - 0.77 - 0.17
Giordano 1.04 - 0.49 - 0.10
Sandin 0.90 - 0.38 - 0.30 ----- McCabe 0.86 - 0.52 - 0.17
Liljegren 0.76 - 0.53 - 0.29
Brodie 0.77 - 0.30 - 0.12
Holl 0.77 - 0.18 - 0.09
Timmins 1.54 - 0.85 - 0.34 ---- Gustafsson 0.50 - 0.50 - 0.00 ---- Holowell 1.59 - 0.79 - 0.00 ---- Mete 0.93 - 0.00 - 0.00
Schenn 0.33 - 0.33 - 0.33 ---- Benn 0.72 - 0.72 - 0.36 ---- Muzzin 1.14 - 1.14 - 0.00

replacing Holl with Klingberg should be a significant upgrade, and while Sandin will probably do better this year, his primary point production was legit weak last year his offense was replaced by McCabe just fine. Brodie will once again be the one true offensive black hole back there but his defense makes up for it - but if you have all of Brodie, Holl, and Schenn out there then yeah that's a massive offensive sinkhole.


Vegas:

Theodore 1.71 - 0.86 - 0.31
Pietrangelo 1.43 - 0.78 - 0.32
Whitecloud 0.80 - 0.60 - 0.33
Hague 0.70 - 0.48 - 0.09
McNabb 0.51 - 0.30 - 0.04
Martinez 0.47 - 0.19 - 0.05
Hutton 0.80 - 0.53 - 0.27
Miromanov 0.84 - 0.84 - 0.28 ---- Korczak 0.71 - 0.36 - 0.00 --- Pachal 0.39 - 0.39 - 0.00

Theo and Pietro racked up a ton of secondary assists but i'm not sure if that's more ability or assists. Mo and Klingberg generally match them in primary production.


Florida:

Montour 1.40 - 0.93 - 0.47
Forsling 1.29 - 1.05 - 0.48
Gudas 1.00 - 0.53 - 0.12
Mahura 0.89 - 0.67 - 0.22
Ekblad 0.78 - 0.62 - 0.21
Staal 0.68 - 0.34 - 0.15
Kiersted 1.29 - 0.99 - 0.32

Panthers definitely got a ton of production from the blueline last year. Especially in terms of goals. Don't think we can match that. Though Florida did sacrifice a ton of defense for that offense.


Boston:

McAvoy 1.43 - 0.88 - 0.17
Lindholm 1.22 - 0.78 - 0.26
Grzelcyk 1.11 - 0.56 - 0.15
Clifton 0.97 - 0.56 - 0.19
Forbort 0.78 - 0.62 - 0.24 ---- Orlov 1.74 - 0.79 - 0.47
Carlo 0.69 - 0.42 - 0.11
Zboril 0.96 - 0.48 - 0.24
Reilly 0.40 - 0.00 - 0.00 ---- Stralman 0.00 - 0.00 - 0.00

Leafs can match that, at least pre-Orlov trade. Not that the orlov trade helped them in the playoffs.


Carolina:

Burns 1.29 - 1.07 - 0.52
Skjei 1.13 - 0.71 - 0.46
DeHaan 1.06 - 0.53 - 0.18 --- Gostisbehere 0.75 - 0.00 - 0.00
Slavin 0.92 - 0.53 - 0.18
Pesce 0.83 - 0.54 - 0.08
Chatfield 0.71 - 0.53 - 0.29
Coghlan 0.91 - 0.61 - 0.00

Don't think we can match that, and now they added Orlov too.
 
So Keef's first gut instinct lineup:

Bertuzzi --- Matthews --- Marner
Domi --- Nylander --- Jarnkrok
Knies --- Tavares --- Lafferty
Gregor --- Kampf --- Reaves
(Robertson --- Holmberg --- Abbruzzese*)

* - that would probably be McMann if he was healthy


Rielly --- Brodie
McCabe --- Klingberg
Giordano --- Liljegren
(Lagesson* --- Timmins)

* - that would probably be Benoit if healthy
​

If those lines stick for a bit, especially Willy at center, you gotta think an easy move would be putting the best of Robertson/Gregor/Holmberg up in the top 9 and drop Lafferty to the Kampf line.
 
Robertson --- Matthews --- Marner
Knies --- Tavares --- Bertuzzi
Domi --- Nylander --- Jarnkrok
Lafferty --- Kampf --- Reaves​
 
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