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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

Preston said:
Listening to that idiot, Wheeler, talk.

He basically says people only began wondering if Gavin would be the #1 pick in the fall, but that sort of went away as the season went on. The conversation has shifted and he's widely viewed as the #1 prospect now and he'd be surprised if the Leafs don't take him and believes they absolutely should take him and it's not much of a question that he's the #1 in this draft.

He thinks he's gonna struggle in the NHL next year and there will be a major learning curve. Feels he's a bit soft on pucks, doesn't battle, is a perimeter guy, lacks details, etc. He's weak and frail and doesn't really involve himself in battles. He expects it'll be similar to the Jack Hughes rookie season. He also says he's a worse skater and less competitive than Hughes. He can be very difficult and frustrating to watch because of his lack of compete. He says he's not Bedard or Celebrini caliber or style of player either. Says maybe a Panarin type is the upside. He's unbelievably talented and mentions how much he scored in the WHL and how favorably it compares to the Bedard types so there is lots of upside.

Also re: Marner comparisons - Some similarities, but Gavin is more talented, more electric, more dynamic, but not as good defensively or off the puck; not even close. Gavin needs to be scoring to be impactful, Mitch doesn't.
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Re: Chase Reid, says Leafs have no reason to draft him and then wait a few years for him to arrive and likely watch him struggle his first few years as most young D do. He's likely to play 2 more years of college and then even then, he has a lot of question marks and he's not 100% sure on him ever reaching that potential. Lots of question marks on him - with the Leafs window he feels the timing doesn't make sense, they need a more immediate impact guy. He said he has heard the Leafs like Reid, but when push comes to shove, he thinks it'll be Gavin.

He says this draft isn't a very good year to get a high pick. There's some uncertainty at #1 and the D are ok but none are locks and they all have question marks.
 
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Preston said:
Listening to that idiot, Wheeler, talk.

He basically says people only began wondering if Gavin would be the #1 pick in the fall, but that sort of went away as the season went on. The conversation has shifted and he's widely viewed as the #1 prospect now and he'd be surprised if the Leafs don't take him and believes they absolutely should take him and it's not much of a question that he's the #1 in this draft.

He thinks he's gonna struggle in the NHL next year and there will be a major learning curve. Feels he's a bit soft on pucks, doesn't battle, is a perimeter guy, lacks details, etc. He's weak and frail and doesn't really involve himself in battles. He expects it'll be similar to the Jack Hughes rookie season. He also says he's a worse skater and less competitive than Hughes. He can be very difficult and frustrating to watch because of his lack of compete. He says he's not Bedard or Celebrini caliber or style of player either. Says maybe a Panarin type is the upside. He's unbelievably talented and mentions how much he scored in the WHL and how favorably it compares to the Bedard types so there is lots of upside.

Also re: Marner comparisons - Some similarities, but Gavin is more talented, more electric, more dynamic, but not as good defensively or off the puck; not even close. Gavin needs to be scoring to be impactful, Mitch doesn't.
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Hot take...but winger defence is easily the least valuable and impactful of the positions and I honestly don't fucking care as long as there's a reasonable motor and give a fuck level.
 
MindzEye said:
Hot take...but winger defence is easily the least valuable and impactful of the positions and I honestly don't fucking care as long as there's a reasonable motor and give a fuck level.
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He's gonna drive this market nuts. Like another Willy type. I'm oddly excited for those takes.
 
Preston said:
He says this draft isn't a very good year to get a high pick. There's some uncertainty at #1 and the D are ok but none are locks and they all have question marks.
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I mean, this is just fucking dumb. The top of the draft has 3 guys who have put up elite-elite age adjusted numbers this year, then Reid who makes eye testers change their pants, and Verhoeff who is about as close to the Ekblad, Parayko, Pietrangelo, etc mold as you're going to get.

He was in love with the 2023 draft and this top 5 is at least the pre draft equal of Bedard, Carlson, Fantilli, Smith, and Reinbacher/Simashev.
 
Preston said:
He's gonna drive this market nuts. Like another Willy type. I'm oddly excited for those takes.
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The least interesting part of Mitch's game to me was always the wing defence. Where that player type makes the most impact is in transition (being able to consistently carry the puck out of the D zone is way more impactful for an elite winger than knowing where to stand), controlling possession in the offensive zone, and being murder on the PP. I mean, if Mitch shot the puck better and more he probably would have been the player Paul thinks he is. 100-110 points, clutch plays, etc. Where Mitch flopped in the playoffs with us wasn't even living outside of the contact areas so much as it was everyone in the rink knowing what he was trying to do with the puck before he did it. Oh...Mitch is skating with the puck? Cool, find Auston and stick on him, then wait for Mitch to throw the puck harmlessly towards the net. If Mitch was capable of taking that perimeter possession, curling into the middle and beating goalies from the slot just often enough for teams to be afraid of it, they play him and us completely differently. McKenna appears to do exactly that, and quite often.
 
MindzEye said:
I mean, this is just fucking dumb. The top of the draft has 3 guys who have put up elite-elite age adjusted numbers this year, then Reid who makes eye testers change their pants, and Verhoeff who is about as close to the Ekblad, Parayko, Pietrangelo, etc mold as you're going to get.

He was in love with the 2023 draft and this top 5 is at least the pre draft equal of Bedard, Carlson, Fantilli, Smith, and Reinbacher/Simashev.
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He said it compares more to 2025 than 2023 or 2024. He isn't horny about it. High upside, highly flawed guy at 1. High floor, low upside guy at 2. And then a bunch of d that he feels all have question marks.
 
As a loyal reader from day one, I think the “hockey scouts” from The Athletic is easily the weakest part of their offering.

They magnify every prospect flaws
 
CH1 said:
As a loyal reader from day, one I think the “hockey scouts” from The Athletic of the weakest part of their offering.

They magnify every prospect flaws
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And rely too much on eye testy stuff. Wheeler has been pretty consistent about Gavin being tremendously flawed for a long while, don't think this is an anti Leaf thing. And he's been gushing over Reid offensively for awhile too (while questioning his defensive game). But the offensive numbers on Reid aren't anything to write home about, so if that's his only strength then uhh I don't know...
 
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It’s 100 % eye test plus they cover every amateur league in the world, so they’re not constantly updating their reports because frankly they don’t have the bandwidth

They are storytellers first and foremost
 
CH1 said:
As a loyal reader from day one, I think the “hockey scouts” from The Athletic is easily the weakest part of their offering.

They magnify every prospect flaws
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This is better than he's the next Bobby Orr, or his ceiling is Beliveau but better skating and shot!!!!!
 
I’m still reading that Lane Hutson’s skating will be a problem going forward. Might be ok on the power play though
 
I would have pushed back on Wheeler saying he expects Gavin to struggle similarly to Jack Hughes in his rookie year. Could be the case, but Jack didn't have a year of college under his belt. I think Gavin progressed quite well throughout the year and scored at a pace that should make him a pretty good candidate to immediately do better than the 20 points that Jack had. Maybe I'm wrong but that seems pessimistic to me!
 
Preston said:
He said it compares more to 2025 than 2023 or 2024. He isn't horny about it. High upside, highly flawed guy at 1. High floor, low upside guy at 2. And then a bunch of d that he feels all have question marks.
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Yeah, that's an unhinged take, but I'm not surprised. There's a reason he's been doing this for over a decade now and no one has stolen him away from the media.
 
hockeylover said:
I’d imagine we start hearing this a lot more now.
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We saw this after the Matthews lotto too. Suddenly the magnifying glass came out for all his flaws, and high-minded “well maybe Laine is ackshually better, but the Leafs need a center so they should still take Matthews” think-pieces starting proliferating rapidly.
 
I don't know enough about the NCAA to opine too much, but my understanding is that Penn State is relatively "new" to the group of top hockey programs, and their roster was also kind of weak compared to other places he could've gone to. So it was mildly controversial that McKenna went there, and he really did struggle in the early going.

Obviously he had a monster second half to alleviate most of those concerns though.
 
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