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TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

hockeylover said:
You can easily see a scenario this year where both Murray and Samsonov completely crap the bed. Not even like either of their floors are just average. So that part is frightening.
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It’s not. I can see a scenario where they’re both more than fine because Kallgren went 8-4 in his stint. Relax people. Goalies are all that’s being discussed here.
 
I think I can confidently say that I don’t give two shits about any advanced stats for goalies.

As for Samsonov, any official confirmation or salary numbers? Or is it still only this Staples dude who’s saying we signed him?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
It’s not. I can see a scenario where they’re both more than fine because Kallgren went 8-4 in his stint. Relax people. Goalies are all that’s being discussed here.
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they also went 12-6 with Mraz in net.

In fact, with all backups: .890sv%, 23-12-1, 107pt pace
 
zeke said:
they also went 12-6 with Mraz in net.

In fact, with all backups: .890sv%, 23-12-1, 107pt pace
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This is a fantastic team in front of any goalie we sign, zero disagreements there.

I would just love to have a season where you don't have to tell us how much better the pace when we get good goaltending every few weeks.
 
hockeylover said:
This is a fantastic team in front of any goalie we sign, zero disagreements there.

I would just love to have a season where you don't have to tell us how much better the pace when we get good goaltending every few weeks.
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Watch this whole thing when you get a chance.
 
zeke said:
apparently HDSV% is where it's at.
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I'd like to see someone do properly rigorous statistical work on this, but my current leaning is that the more granular you get with SV%, the more you're going to struggle to pull trends and find predictive value in it. Only 5 goalies in the league saw 400 or more HD shots against last season....that's not a lot of events and there's a pretty big variance in the quality of chances even within HD. A breakaway is a HD shot, and has a league wide shooting percentage of ~30%. A 2 on 1 shot would also be a HD chance and those have a shooting % of closer to 50%. Rebounds have high shooting %'s, etc. The fewer the amount of events that are considered to "matter", the more that things like shooter quality and team quality will create noise in the results and make the statistic useless for future prediction.
 
MindzEye said:
I'd like to see someone do properly rigorous statistical work on this, but my current leaning is that the more granular you get with SV%, the more you're going to struggle to pull trends and find predictive value in it. Only 5 goalies in the league saw 400 or more HD shots against last season....that's not a lot of events and there's a pretty big variance in the quality of chances even within HD. A breakaway is a HD shot, and has a league wide shooting percentage of ~30%. A 2 on 1 shot would also be a HD chance and those have a shooting % of closer to 50%. Rebounds have high shooting %'s, etc. The fewer the amount of events that are considered to "matter", the more that things like shooter quality and team quality will create noise in the results and make the statistic useless for future prediction.
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You have to believe teams like the Leafs (and now the Habs) have MUCH BETTER data breakdowns than us schmoes. You don’t spend several hundred thousand per year so your staff can scrape Twitter for insights from JFresh and EvolvingWild
 
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