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TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

I was gonna say probably worse because it's hard for any model to project 115pts......but then I checked and he had the Leafs projected at 109.3 points before the season so yeah after the deadline moves it probably would have added a few more (Gio and Blackwell alone were worth something like 2.5 wins aka 5pts on his model).
 
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he had playoff Leafs at 114 points.

So current Leafs are ~106.
 
I assume Boosh. And Sandin was hurt.

but looking at that again it seems to just be the actual standings. So it was probably a projection of how the teams would finish the last few games and not how they would perform in a new season post deadline.
 
Detroit paid a shitload more for those upgrades and locked themselves into some ugly looking deals. $25m for 6 wins vs $5m for 4 wins for Ottawa.

Meanwhile most of their roster isnt actually young enough to expect lots of improvemrnt from, while ottawa's core is legit mostly ~22 last year.
 
As far as the Leafs off season goes...

Full time Lilly & Robertson could easily be impact additions on par or better with anything that was available on the free agent market.

Easily.
 
So he had last years opening roster Leafs at 109 points and this years at 106? I guess that's the decline in goaltending and the loss of Mik outweighing their much improved d corps? Could be accounting for declines in Brodie, Muzzin and Gio too I suppose. All in all a 3 point decrease seems reasonable since last year I suspect he had Jack-Pete at around league average. This year goaltending may be ranked as the worst in the league with a high degree of uncertainty and could easily cost them that 3 point decrease, or more. I get it.
 
Preston said:
So he had last years opening roster Leafs at 109 points and this years at 106? I guess that's the decline in goaltending and the loss of Mik outweighing their much improved d corps? Could be accounting for declines in Brodie, Muzzin and Gio too I suppose. All in all a 3 point decrease seems reasonable since last year I suspect he had Jack-Pete at around league average. This year goaltending may be ranked as the worst in the league with a high degree of uncertainty and could easily cost them that 3 point decrease, or more. I get it.
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did he release projections for this year yet?
 
Preston said:
I'm going based on 101's estimation, prolly around there
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I think he was estimating it off the wrong starting point.

Anyways, given that Dom has us as 3rd best contract value and most every good team is a cap team I'm thinking we slot pretty high again.
 
zeke said:
Only thing to remember here is that this is projected wins compared to what our season-ending roster would have projected to this year, not what they did last year.

So, for example, it counts Blackwell's full-season contributions as the loss, and doesn't include Giordano's next year full-season projections as an addition.

Notice here that this projection was based mostly on counting Mrazek as a notable upgrade over Andersen.

Though fair is fair - it was also because Bunting was a model-breaker and projected as a big upgrade and that turned out to be right, and we haven't made an addition like that this year (yet).
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Ah, wait, so they're subtracting Giroux + Chiarot from Florida as if they played the whole year with them but not subtracting them from their pre-deadline teams? That's a bit messy.
 
hockeylover said:
Ah, wait, so they're subtracting Giroux + Chiarot from Florida as if they played the whole year with them but not subtracting them from their pre-deadline teams? That's a bit messy.
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There's really no clean way to do it tbh.

They're not really subtracting GIroux and Chiarot as if they played the whole year with them - they've subtracted what Giroux and Chiarot would have done if they played this whole upcoming season, and replaced that with what the new guys project to do.
 
zeke said:
There's really no clean way to do it tbh.

They're not really subtracting GIroux and Chiarot as if they played the whole year with them - they've subtracted what Giroux and Chiarot would have done if they played this whole upcoming season, and replaced that with what the new guys project to do.
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True but I think you'd need to keep in mind when looking at this that the actual teams that had Giroux and Chiarot for most of the year last year aren't getting dinged for a loss whatsoever.

Like Anaheim is considered the 6th most improved team but they ditched Rakell, Lindholm, and Manson at the deadline and Milano will likely walk and none of those are factored in in any way.
 
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