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TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

Wayward DP said:
hey there was a decent troupe of us at the time opposed to the JT signing. feeling pretty vindicated, despite whatever LOF will say in reply.

also surprised that Dom's model is so low on Muzz.
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Vindicated that he’s been an awesome PPG player for four years? I hope you’re just as vindicated for the final three years.

I don’t see how you’re coming away thinking you were right about something- as 101 showed, he’s provided more than equivalent value just now in year 4, is still just entering his low 30’s, and we got him for free. You generally don’t sign an $11m player long term and end up on track to get almost full value after 7 years.

He’s literally probably our best long term UFA signing ever, the one guy who actually left bigger money on the table to come home when he could. History will remember his tenure fondly when all is said and done.
 
And why are we complaining about Jarnkrok? Looks like a pretty awesome signing to me when basically a total scrub generally makes $1.5m to $2m these days.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Vindicated that he’s been an awesome PPG player for four years? I hope you’re just as vindicated for the final three years.

I don’t see how you’re coming away thinking you were right about something- as 101 showed, he’s provided more than equivalent value just now in year 4, is still just entering his low 30’s, and we got him for free. You generally don’t sign an $11m player long term and end up on track to get almost full value after 7 years.

He’s literally probably our best long term UFA signing ever, the one guy who actually left bigger money on the table to come home when he could. History will remember his tenure fondly when all is said and done.
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1 - not actually PPG, but you know this

2 - the best case scenario was that he would provide positive value on the front end and then negative value on the back end. it's looking like he'll provide neutral value on the front end and negative value on the back

3 - when we signed him, we were not in a 'win now' position like we are now. we could afford an overpay. but now, having his albatross contract being unmoveable, providing negative value, and potentially sabotaging our second line makes it really hard to address our current needs and maximize our roster during our win now moment

I like the guy. He's a talented player and a dogged worker. But he was and remains overpaid and as (hopefully, if) his performance continues to decline over the years he certainly adds some challenges to our continued success and growth.
 
Wayward DP said:
1 - not actually PPG, but you know this

2 - the best case scenario was that he would provide positive value on the front end and then negative value on the back end. it's looking like he'll provide neutral value on the front end and negative value on the back

3 - when we signed him, we were not in a 'win now' position like we are now. we could afford an overpay. but now, having his albatross contract being unmoveable, providing negative value, and potentially sabotaging our second line makes it really hard to address our current needs and maximize our roster during our win now moment

I like the guy. He's a talented player and a dogged worker. But he was and remains overpaid and as (hopefully, if) his performance continues to decline over the years he certainly adds some challenges to our continued success and growth.
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Haha, you’re funny.
 
I appreciate Doms work overall, but any assessment of player value in dollar terms has to take market forces into account. So yeah, by Doms model JT has been a 10.5 to 11 million dollar hockey player, but in a model where elite players are worth 20 million.
 
always a good move to open the vault for the generational talents
 
That contract was bargain the instant he signed it. Seems like a guy who probably doesn't care that much. The just over $100 million he earned between 13-14 and 21-22 was probably enough to buy most of Nova Scotia during that time.
 
I disagree with the notion that elite players are only worth what the market pays them. High end players in the NHL may be the most undervalued and underpaid assets in any sport. Their value is derived from the value they add to a team. The market is under valuing them, and allocating too much cap space to mid tier players. That is where the value is in hockey free agency. (that and striking gold in the bargain bin).

Tavares has provided $41 million in value over the last 4 years. Its hard to get that from two $5.5 million players.

Seattle signed Eberle and Schwartz for about that last year. Between the two of them they had 1 season where they produced positive value on a $5.5 mill contract, and 10.1 GSVA (compared to JT 10.9) or an average combined somewhere between $7.7 and $9 million of value a year.

Kadri had an amazing year this year, but produced about $4-5 mill in value the previous 3 years, and 7.9 GSVA overall over the last 4. His overall value wasn't close to JT over the last 4 years.

You are much more likely to overpay that mid level tier, then you are to overpay the high end tier.

And I think that is played out with the teams that have won cups in the cap era, with a couple minor exceptions. its teams with elite players that are paid a lot of money, but not what they are really worth.
 
JT coming off a major concussion last year. I fully expect him to have a great year for us.

He’s def not the problem on this team. Expensive or not.

Our problem is management has been doodoo. Year after year they can’t figure out goaltending situation.
 
Leafin' said:
JT coming off a major concussion last year. I fully expect him to have a great year for us.

He’s def not the problem on this team. Expensive or not.

Our problem is management has been doodoo. Year after year they can’t figure out goaltending situation.
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Our problem is Matthews and Marner in elimination games.

If they play up to their talents, we win. That's it. Since they haven't, I wanted and still want more offense, which only moving Muzz can provide, but it's looking like this is maybe what we're rolling into the season with, with a few fringe moves to fit Sandin in.
 
leafman101 said:
I disagree with the notion that elite players are only worth what the market pays them. High end players in the NHL may be the most undervalued and underpaid assets in any sport. Their value is derived from the value they add to a team. The market is under valuing them, and allocating too much cap space to mid tier players. That is where the value is in hockey free agency. (that and striking gold in the bargain bin).

Tavares has provided $41 million in value over the last 4 years. Its hard to get that from two $5.5 million players.

Seattle signed Eberle and Schwartz for about that last year. Between the two of them they had 1 season where they produced positive value on a $5.5 mill contract, and 10.1 GSVA (compared to JT 10.9) or an average combined somewhere between $7.7 and $9 million of value a year.

Kadri had an amazing year this year, but produced about $4-5 mill in value the previous 3 years, and 7.9 GSVA overall over the last 4. His overall value wasn't close to JT over the last 4 years.

You are much more likely to overpay that mid level tier, then you are to overpay the high end tier.

And I think that is played out with the teams that have won cups in the cap era, with a couple minor exceptions. its teams with elite players that are paid a lot of money, but not what they are really worth.
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Whats interesting is that you could make an aegument they're even undervalued still by models like Dom where Bunting's huge value last year might be largely due to his linemates, but not credited it to them. So if you think some of the lesser lights are being overvalued by Dom's model due to teammates, then those elite teammates arr worth even more than his model thinks.
 
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LeafOfFaith said:
Our problem is Matthews and Marner in elimination games.

If they play up to their talents, we win. That's it. Since they haven't, I wanted and still want more offense, which only moving Muzz can provide, but it's looking like this is maybe what we're rolling into the season with, with a few fringe moves to fit Sandin in.
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Yeah, we are not scoring goals in games 6 and 7 like we should be (Or game 5 in 2020). That is very clear
 
Jarnkok is another swiss-army-knife, can play C/W and maybe gets a look on that 2nd line if it turns into a bit of a carousel. He's not another $850k player, but still a value-signing IMO.
 
Any model that estimates the dollar value of a player has to incorporate the scarcity of dollars spent. At maximum it would be if all teams spent to the cap - which they don't.

My pts/$ model isn't fancy, but seems to track pretty closely to what the top 150 players are getting paid. It also assumes that maximum dollars can/will be spent.

Here's the top 12 from last season:

Auston Matthews $13,548,773
Connor McDavid $13,442,219
Leon Draisaitl $13,413,806
Kirill Kaprizov $12,547,176
Johnny Gaudreau $12,466,669
Steven Stamkos $11,947,436
Matthew Tkachuk $11,792,512
Jonathan Huberdeau $11,577,038
Alex Ovechkin $11,419,748
Kyle Connor $11,385,245
Mitch Marner $10,627,535
Chris Kreider $10,590,666

Here's the Leafs top 10:

Auston Matthews $13,548,773
Mitch Marner $10,627,535
William Nylander $9,221,716
John Tavares $8,289,126
Michael Bunting $6,926,266
Morgan Rielly $6,157,055
Alexander Kerfoot $5,107,089
Ilya Mikheyev $4,347,014 (53 games - 82/$5,000,000)
Pierre Engvall $4,045,621
Ondrej Kase $3,336,961
 
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