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TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

I didn’t expect to see the Leafs this low, but several little things begin to add up. The biggest change is obviously in net where the team likely downgraded. The combo of Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek wasn’t elite by any means, but on paper, it’s probably more reliable than Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov. Again, goalies are weird beings, so maybe this bet pays off for Toronto, but for now it’s a net negative.
 
It was certainly an offseason where the gap between the haves and the have nots shrunk. Makes sense, after seeing it widen the last few years. Eventually those value plays start costing real money and they get capped out. Now they have to find new value plays; it often takes a couple years to really play out.
 
CH1 said:
I didn’t expect to see the Leafs this low, but several little things begin to add up. The biggest change is obviously in net where the team likely downgraded. The combo of Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek wasn’t elite by any means, but on paper, it’s probably more reliable than Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov. Again, goalies are weird beings, so maybe this bet pays off for Toronto, but for now it’s a net negative.
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these are doms words, not yours
 
CH1 said:
nah...need zeke to become a bear

dom is insignificant
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I don't think that would happen even if the Leafs traded for a guy who wasn't vaccinated (and would only join the team in 6 weeks best case scenario) at the deadline. Hell, there are even Jays bulls on Forumice defending that decision!
 
leafman101 said:



not a great offseason.
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Only thing to remember here is that this is projected wins compared to what our season-ending roster would have projected to this year, not what they did last year.

So, for example, it counts Blackwell's full-season contributions as the loss, and doesn't include Giordano's next year full-season projections as an addition.

leafman101 said:
theathletic.com

NHL offseason by the numbers: Which teams have improved the most (and least)?

While there will still be more player movement to come, now feels like a good time to analyze which teams improved the most on paper.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

FWIW, last season they were 9th most improved.
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Notice here that this projection was based mostly on counting Mrazek as a notable upgrade over Andersen.

Though fair is fair - it was also because Bunting was a model-breaker and projected as a big upgrade and that turned out to be right, and we haven't made an addition like that this year (yet).
 
I need a stat head as a guest on a podcast. Who's brave enough?

Listening to boring podcast I've found the better ones have a level of intensity to them.

That's what I'm looking for
 
Don't disagree with the goaltender criticisms as I didn't love targeting Murray at all...

but is it just me, or are people kinda papering over just how bad Campbell was from December on? .893?

Not to mention how great our record was anyway with Mrazek, Holl and Kallgren (110 pt pace for 38 games).

We're still going to be fucking good.
 
I guess the point is that it's hard to do better than 115 points. I don't think they improved the team either and maybe even got a little tiny amount worse. But that's hardly a fucking tragedy.
 
On paper they are worse because despite being bad from January on, generally Campbell has been great the last few years and the goalies we got suck. Also they didn’t do anything notable with their depth additions.

just a boring, underwhelming offseason.

of course the goalies could be just below average and Robertson could take the jump and they are a significantly improved team.

but also the goalies could suck, Jarnkrok could be done and they are spending $9 mill on nothing.
 
Preston said:
I guess the point is that it's hard to do better than 115 points. I don't think they improved the team either and maybe even got a little tiny amount worse. But that's hardly a fucking tragedy.
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The win projection isnt being compared to 115 points but compared to what last year's season ending roster would have projected to this year.
 
Oh then it makes even more sense because they were arguably better than a 115 point team at the end of last year with healthy Muzzin and Gio in the mix.
 
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