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TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

As for our bottom 6's offensive capabilities, Dubas certainly has a type:


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the Leafs won't be playing as exciting a brand of hockey when these guys are on the ice, but having a bottom 6 that is defensively strong isn't the worst idea Dubas has had by a long shot.

if this team gets any kind of goaltending at all, we could be looking at some very nice GA numbers this season.

playoffs you're playing an elite team every night. Not so during the year. Dubas can give the team a bit of a shot in the arm offensively at the deadline.
 
I don't have a problem with that personnel. Jarnkrok is a big risk, but assuming he reverts back to 2020-21 form, there is not much to dislike. There are 5 high end (4 elite), play limiting players, that don't need to be sheltered. Engvall, Jarnkrok, Kubel and Robertson all have 10-15+ goal potential too.

The problems are Kerfoot sucks balls as a top 6er, and if a Simmonds or Clifford pushes Robertson out.

I also think Keefe is a bigger issue. IMO they need to open things up a little bit. Matthews and Marner will wreak havoc no matter what you ask them to do, but even Tavares and Nylander's offensive impact was neutered last year (particularly Nylander). They were bottom 5 in the league in rush chances generated. I think you have to have a bit of the quick strike element in your game. Especially in the playoffs where everything is so tight in front of the net. The Leafs can skate circles around the ozone all game, but its hard getting pucks through. Especially with the depth of talent on D. They have the luxury of being able to cover any mistakes.

Last year they were actually a much better team trailing than when the game was tied:

Tied 1330:52
xGF/60: 2.74 (5th)
xGA/60: 2.34 (11th)
xGF%: 53.99 (7th)

Trailing 1021:08
xGF/60: 3.03 (2nd)
xGA/60: 2.29 (3rd)
xGF%: 56.59 (1st)

Nylander Tied 376:19
xGF/60: 2.88
xGA/60: 2.46
xGF%: 54.00

Tavares Tied 369:01
xGF/60: 2.56
xGA/60: 2.48
xGF%: 50.83

Nylander Trailing 307:04
xGF/60: 3.30
xGA/60: 2.37
xGF%: 58.20

Tavares Trailing 295:33
xGF/60: 3.21
xGA/60: 2.52
xGF%: 56.01

Some of that is obviously the leading team sits back. But the D actually improved when they turned it up down in games. Thats not the case for most teams in those situations (e.g. Boston from 1.94 xGA/60 to 2.04, Carolina 2.2 to 2.6, Calgary 2.14 to 2.6, Minnesota 2.15 to 2.15)

Just loosen things up and create some more offense from the bottom 3 lines off the rush, to generate cleaner looks. I know they want to possess the puck, but they do that even more when they push the pace a bit.
 
I still think the best thing is to put Marner back with Tavares this year. Matthew and Marner have the rest of the careers to play together after JT is gone.

with all the scoring pressure on 2 lines, we need the second unit more than ever.
 
If adding ZAR means that Kampf moves down to a checking line with him, then that should open things up offensively for the guys on the other bottom 6 line.

Last year the soft o-zone usage bottom 6 line was the one with Spezza (71gms) and Simmonds (72gms) on it. Guys barely hanging on as NHLers.

This year there's a decent chance the bottom 6 line getting the ozone start easy matchups will be 3 of Jarnkrok/Kerfoot/Engvall/Robertson, a line with much more speed and recent production.
 
We have so few contracts in 2 years hard to complain too much about too much term for Jarnkrok. Rodrigues fell off a cliff after a strong start, no?
 
Sure, take Marner away from Matthews in his contract year .... Nylander has to realize that he is the problem on that line.
I would be more prone to split JT from Zoolander. Stick JT with Engvall and Robertson, Matthews and Marner with Bunting, and put Willie on his own line with Janrock and Kerfoot.
Matthews has already made it clear he has no desire to play with Willie.
 
Tavares needs to move to 3C. He's too slow, great on face offs and can play on PP. We need players with wheels on the 2nd line to compliment each other
 
Tavares-Nylander

w/Kerf: 53.5xgf%, 50.4gf%
w/Bunts: 52.8xgf%, 18.7gf%
w/Kase: 50.4xgf%, 42.4gf%
w/Mikky: 51.8xgf%, 38.8gf%
w/Robby: 61.9xgf%, 32.5gf%

w/Mitch: 64.0xgf%, 00.0gf%
w/Cock: 73.4xgf%, 59.3gf%
 
I mean Keefe probably won't change anything. he'll still play them together. which means we're still waiting for the ideal 3rd piece on that line.
 
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