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2023 Draft and UFA Thread

TheCountofMonteCristo said:
The NHL needs one of those NFL charts which tells you if a trade is of equal value
Click to expand...
There is one, and it’s actually a lot less than what is being offered on this board but there problem is that there isn’t a lot of data out there as teams moves up very rarely. And the players available in a given draft makes the value quite different.

From those charts a 2nd round pick or late first should be enough to move from 5 to 2. And a 3rd round pick should be enough to move from 5 to 4. I highly doubt that would be enough this year.
 
A bunch of media talking heads, for what it’s worth. And I’ve never read or heard about him being in the same class as the top 5. Is he worth a 5th?
 
Well, for starters, let's just look at where the sites have him ranked.

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Afterwards, let's see what they describe him as:

Hockey Prospects:
11 PLAYER TEAM LEAGUE HEIGHT WEIGHT POS GRADE
LEONARD, RYAN USA-U-18 NTDP 5’ 11.75” 190 RW A
NHLCS CEILING FLOOR HOCKEY SENSE COMPETE SKILL SKATE MISC
NA-5 7 8 7 7 7 7 7

A power forward, he plays with an edge and a ton of energy. He’s not blessed with a great frame like a Matthew Knies
or a Mason McTavish from past years, but he’s extremely strong and powerful for his frame. He’s one of the most
powerful players in this draft class, pound for pound. Leonard uses his great speed to be an effective forechecker,
constantly disrupting puck-carriers with his speed, tenacity and physicality. He has a great motor that never stops, but
also does a really good job using his stick to make things difficult for opponents. In addition, his stick activation comes
into play when backchecking. He can surprise opponents by lifting their sticks to steal pucks from them.

One aspect of power forwards that we have examined more in recent years is their mental makeup. Are they mentally
tough? Do they drive the bus, and will their games translate to playoff hockey in the NHL? We answered all those
questions with a resounding “yes” for Ryan Leonard. He may not have the high-end talent of Smith or Perreault, but
he’s more well-rounded, much better defensively and much better along the boards.

In watching him, our staff would engage in some debates such as: how would his upside affect his position in our
rankings? One of our first questions was about his shot. In the first half of the season, he encountered difficulties while
reading seams, and his shooting skills were inconsistent. We saw a bit too many shots hit the goalie’s crest, leading us to
wonder how his scoring abilities would translate to the NHL. But in the 2nd half of the season, his shooting abilities
improved, and he read goalies better. He was able to beat them more cleanly with his shot, and his pre-shot reads and
accuracy were positive in this regard.

We don’t want to sell Leonard short for his skill level and compare him to his linemates all the time. He scored highlightreel
goals in his own right this season. In fact, one of the best goals we saw from anyone this year was one of his
November Five Nations’ Tournament goals (more specifically, against Team Finland). Flashing some real good hands, he
beat a defenseman one-on-one before beating the goalie on the backhand. Because of his proximity to Will Smith,
Leonard’s hands are underrated. He has a good small-area game and can beat players one-on-one handily.
A very versatile forward, Leonard is going to be highly-regarded by his future NHL coach. He’s going to be able to play
on any line, as he can play different styles on the ice in addition to the skill game. He is also tough to play against and
will bring positive aspects to any line he will play on. His speed, anticipation and compete level are useful on the PK. On
the power play, he can be an asset around the net for rebounds, screens, deflections, and to retrieve pucks along the
boards.

Leonard can be viewed as a jack of all trades but a master of none. Playing with great pace, he’s an above-average
skater with good acceleration and good edgework who is very strong on his skates. He’s quite dangerous one-on-one;
he can beat you with his hands, and his skating ability adds another dimension, as he can also beat you with outside
speed. Unafraid to cut to the net with the puck on his stick, he’s also one of the best players in his draft class when it
comes time to attack the net with authority.

We feel Leonard has progressed very well this season. Formerly a mid-first round potential pick, we now consider him a
potential top-10 pick, and his improved shooting skills are a big reason why. He’s also one of the safer players in this
draft class. One thing NHL teams want when selecting a player high in the draft are minimal question marks associated
with his name. This is the case with Leonard, who will be a very good player in the NHL due to his versatility, speed,
skills and compete level. His game will also translate to NHL playoff-style hockey very well, and he’s a great
complimentary piece to have on a line with two skilled players (as is the case with Perreault and Smith).

The question of his upside remains an enigma when it comes to the idea of selecting him in the top 5. We don’t see him
becoming a top point-producer in the NHL (80-90 points per season or more) but 50-65 seems more achievable. His
playoff value remains more than that of other players who might get more points during the regular season (which could
be the case for someone like Will Smith). One could argue that a guy like Mason McTavish has more playoff value than a
Trevor Zegras, despite Zegras’ regular season numbers. As one of the safest players in this draft class, if you draft

Leonard very high, it means you’re very confident he’s going to hit his upside and become that versatile top-6 forward
who has great playoff value for your franchise.
“I see a top-6 forward in this guy. He does everything well, and I want him on my team in the
playoffs,” - HP Scout Jérôme Bérubé, November 2022
“I think he’s the best player on the team. Much better skill than people think.” - NHL Scout,
December 2022
“He hits…he can really fly. I love his game.” - NHL Scout, January 2023
“His shot is a bomb.” - NHL Scout, January 2023
“Whenever his team needed an energy shift to spark them, he is the one who gave it to them.” - NHL
Scout, January 2023
“He’s a good competitor and he had skill. Two good things in a draft prospect when you work for the
________.” - NHL Scout, January 2023
“I kinda call bullsh*t on how competitive he is. I mean he works hard but this isn’t the second
coming of Matt Tkachuk.” - NHL Scout, January 2023
“He might get 20 points less than his teammates in the NHL but I think he’ll be great in the
playoffs.” - NHL Scout, January 2023
“(Will) Smith will get you to the playoffs and Leonard will help you win in the playoffs.” - NHL
Scout, January 2023
“I like him. He reminds me of Kyle Palmieri.” - NHL Scout, January 2023
“Ranking these program (USNTDP) guys is not fun this year. Right now I have it Smith, Leonard,
Perreault but if you told me you had it reversed I wouldn’t argue.” - NHL Scout, January 2023
“Leonard drives the bus for that team and I always want the driver over the passengers.” - NHL
Scout, February 2023
“I saw him compete but it wasn’t nearly as consistent part of his game as some scouts think it
was. I’ve seen him a ton.” - NHL Scout, March 2023
“It’s really hard to pass on guys like Leonard and Barlow these days. The are getting rare.” - NHL
Scout, March 2023
“I have this feeling that he’s going to be the better NHL player than Smith…actually all of them
(USNTDP players) - NHL Scout, May 2023
“What you see is what you get…he’s already close to 220 pounds. You are watching close to the
finished product.” - NHL Scout, May 2023
“I think he had 42 goals and when you see him shoot the puck you know how he got them.” - NHL
Scout, May 2023
“When I think playoffs I push him up my list.” - NHL Scout, May 2023
“Look at the Florida Panthers right now. Calgary basically traded Leonard (Tkachuk) for Smith
(Huberdeau). Which player do you want right now? “ - NHL Scout, May 2023
“Similar to Benson but different. He’s a hockey player and a winner. Although he’s bigger, more
powerful and faster than Benson, he’s not as good as a playmaker as Benson and I would give Benson
the edge for smarts. Different style of player but both bring a winning attitude to the table.” - HP
Scout Jérôme Bérubé, May 2023
“So tight from four through twelve. Really like how he woke up his team at times if they were
asleep at the wheel.” - HP Scout, Mark Edwards, May 2023
Click to expand...
 
the consensus is there’s a bunch of guys in Leonard’s tier — he could go 5th or just as easily slide to 11th
 
McKeens:


Is Ryan Leonard the straw that stirs the drink on the dominant first line of the U.S. NTDP team? Will

Smith’s skill and creativity are driving forces for play creation and Gabe Perreault’s vision and spacing

awareness are integral as complementary pieces, but there are many scouts who believe that Leonard

was the most integral piece. His ability to play with pace, his physicality, and his two-way efficiency

allowed that line to consistently be behind the wheel regardless of matchups. Also, a skilled finisher and

play creator, it would not be a stretch to call Leonard the most complete forward in this year’s draft class.

There is truly no area in Leonard’s game that requires significant growth in order for him to be an NHL

player. His linear speed is a strength, and his first step quickness is a characteristic that allows him to be

so effective on the counterattack. He carries confidently and while he may not be the most creative player

one on one, he protects the puck well on net drives and is difficult to separate from the puck. Leonard’s

strength on the puck makes him a great forechecker and boards player too, as he rarely loses a 50/50

battle at the junior level. Too often this year did Leonard make a hit to gain possession in the offensive

end, allowing the U.S. to hold the offensive blueline and hem opposing teams in. One of Leonard’s biggest

strengths is his shot. Armed with an array of high-end shots, Leonard can beat goalies in a variety of

different ways. His offensive zone anticipation and understanding of spacing helps him to consistently

find soft spots in coverage and his quick release helps him to take advantage of those opportunities…

more often than not.

As a two-way player, Leonard’s relentless pressure in puck pursuit helps him to be an extremely reliable

defensive and neutral zone presence. While it is cliche, he simply never quits on a play and his physicality

is a major weapon for him to help separate opposing players from the puck. It is for this reason that

Leonard was used as one of the U.S.’ top penalty killers this year on the U18 team. Leonard is also a great

shot blocker; again, showing that he is the kind of player who is willing to do anything to help his team

win. Simply put, Leonard is going to be a player that NHL teams will want in their lineup come playoff

time.

The million-dollar question is ultimately…what is Leonard’s upside as a player who is really good at

absolutely everything, but not elite in one thing? Can he be a first line winger the way guys like Gabriel

Landeskog or Matthew Tkachuk are? Or does he fit into more of the middle of the lineup as a Brandon

Saad or Nick Foligno type? If you’re using a top ten selection on Leonard (and we firmly believe that

someone will), then you definitely imagine that his projection is the former. Headed to Boston College

(along with Smith and Perreault), Leonard will focus on improving his vision and playmaking ability. He

should be an immediate impact player at the college level similar to how Cutter Gauthier was this past

season. He should also be an NHL player sooner than many players drafted in the first round this year.

How high his ceiling ultimately reaches will depend on just how much further his skill, finishing ability,

and play with the puck develop at the college level. - BO
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Elite Prospects:


Ryan Leonard’s got that dog in him. Think a Great Dane with a spiked collar, tattoos, and a mean-looking, badass scar — that kind of dog in ‘em.


He’s bringing it. Every shift. No matter the score. No matter the stakes. It’s always overtime in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final when Leonard steps onto the ice. If you’re not up for the fight, that’s your problem.


This isn’t why we’ve moved him up to No. 6 on the final Elite Prospects board for the 2023 NHL Draft, though. That’s not a spot for unidimensional bruisers. No, Leonard is there because he’s one of the most talented skaters in this draft, an inside-driven scorer who can beat opponents with his hands, shot, and passing skill in equal measures, all while maintaining a clean defensive conscience.


Put another way: The type of player you win with when the games matter the most.


“The BC commit is dangerous with the puck in the offensive zone, possessing a pro-calibre shot and hands,” Elite Prospects USHL scout Joey Padmanabhan said of his game. “Leonard is incredibly deceptive, using his upper body and eyes to turn defenders’ feet and sticks before walking around them or getting a shot on net. Leonard is a great facilitator, as well. After making a move, he can find guys in stride in dangerous spots. An above-average skater, Leonard can employ all of these tools off the rush too, making him even more versatile.”


That point about Leonard’s ability as a facilitator is critical to understanding our enthusiasm for this player, because you can’t tell the story of his draft year without broaching his development in that facet of the game. Better still, how that growth allowed him to become more potent with his established skills as a finisher.

Where Leonard was once content to play a straight-forward, north-south power forward’s game in his draft-minus-one season and even the beginning of this one, there was clearly a concerted effort on his part to add a changeup to his rotation rather than just leaning on his fastball.

By the second half of the season, you could see those changes on a shift-to-shift basis – the addition of a delay and give-and-go game, using deception to set up passing plays, etc. – elevating his already present passing skill to far more effective ends.

And this didn’t come at the expense of his power game. Leonard still had it in him to explode past an opponent in space or bury the shoulder or carve his way through an opposing defence with a vast array of handling moves en route to the goal like a power forward straight out of the 80s.

When you take all of this into account, it should be pretty easy to understand our affinity for this player relative to most in the industry. I mean, what’s not to like about a player who is a skilled dangler, a lethal shooter, and an intelligent, skilled passer who bullies opponents and shuts things down in the defensive zone? Especially when they just might be able to line up at centre.

Whichever team gets Leonard in this draft is going to be very happy to have him on their side. Lord knows, you’d hate the alternative.


INDUSTRY CHATTER

“Really good all around player, the 200 foot guy, he’ll fit well in the NHL. I think he’s a real safe, smart pick for someone.” - Western Conference scout, May 2023

“ Can he play centre? Yeah, for sure he can. Will he play centre? It depends who you want him to play with. I gotta think that BC is going to want to keep that first line together, so he’s probably going to stick on the wing, unless they move him to centre and move Cutter Gauthier up with those guys.”

He can play anywhere in the lineup. He’s a top-six guy, but he can play any forward position. He can kill penalties. He can play the power play. He’s tenacious. He’s got a little bit of Matthew Tkachuk in his game. And he’s an impressive kid when you meet him, too. He checks off all of the boxes.” – Western Conference scout, May 2023

“ He will be a top-20 pick and top-nine forward in the NHL. A powerful, smooth athlete [and] a strong skater with speed and he has 1-on-1 skills. Heavy shot, and a great release. He’s also very physical and hits with impact.” – NHL scout, April 2023

“I’m a power forward who gets the inside, loves to shoot the puck. I’m very physical, too.” – Ryan Leonard, April 2023

“My biggest role model is my brother. He’s been my day one guy that I could talk to at any given moment about life or hockey or anything. He’s just kind of been there for me my whole life.” – Ryan Leonard, April 2023

“Yeah, that’s who he is. Ryan Leonard doesn’t take days off. I haven’t seen it once in two years, so I’m not expecting to see it anytime soon. That’s who he is. He’s always going, and this is every single game, every single practice – he’s playing like it’s playoff hockey for him all of the time. He only knows one way. There’s no other switch. Obviously, another strong game from him and his line. That’s the expectation that we have. That’s the expectation that they put on themselves. They’re creating a lot of offence, but I believe those guys should get a lot of credit for their play away from the puck, too. They’ve been really good in this tournament.” – USA U18 head coach Dan Muse, April 2023

“Their whole team was pretty hard to defend. He’s really skilled. He’s a fast skater. It’s pretty hard to defend him.” – Jakub Dvořák, April 2023

“He’s just amazing. To talk about him, he’s just an amazing player, great shot. He just makes plays out of nothing.” – Danny Nelson, April 2023

“Lenny had an opportunity and he capitalized. That’s who he is. He’s a big-time player who thrives in big moments. It could’ve been a number of guys, but it’s not shocking that it was him.” – USA U18 head coach Dan Muse, April 2023

“I always take puck battles personally. I want to win all of them.” – Ryan Leonard, November 2022

“I’m the type of forward who likes to get to the net. I like to use my lower body and I focused on that in the weight room. It gives me power and helps me a lot. I feel like some players don’t go to the hard areas enough and I feel that’s a spot where you can get rewarded the most.” – Ryan Leonard, November 2022

“I think my speed is good. Near the top of the team. I’m not the fastest guy but I’m up there for sure.” – Ryan Leonard, November 2022
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Future Considerations:


Leonard is a high-skilled, tenacious forward known for his elite finishing ability and power-forward style. With a high hockey IQ, he constantly scans the game, finding the right solutions to advance play, whether through passes or creating space for teammates. Leonard’s versatile shot, acceleration, and ability to use speed in zone entries and rushes are notable strengths. Off-puck, he positions himself well to win battles and score, but his defensive play could use improvement, particularly in backchecking and discipline during penalty kills. His powerful stride and effective forechecking help him regain possession, while his deceptive play and excellent scanning abilities keep defenders guessing. Leonard boasts a strong lower-body that allows him to drive around opponents and protect the puck, while his determination to fight and battle in tough areas stands out. His shot is one of his best traits, with a quick release and the ability to change points of release easily. Leonard’s good hands enable him to fool defenders and shield the puck from opponents. However, his playmaking skills need improvement to make him a more dominating offensive player at the next level. His off-puck play and ability to drive offense independently are areas that require further development. In addition to his impressive offensive skills, Leonard has shown perseverance as a very good and active forechecker, frequently stealing pucks in the offensive zone. Although Leonard has a high floor, his ceiling may be lower compared to some of his peers.
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