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2023 Draft and UFA Thread

GGpX said:
Why's that?

Beyond the lottery, I'm don't think this is a generational draft like 2003 or 2015 was. Historically, more often than not, the statistical probabilities of drafting a top-6 forward or top-4 d-man in the middle of the first aren't that high.

I think there's a much better chance that Lafrenière can turn it around than drafting someone in the mid-first, waiting 2-3 years and hoping he becomes something.
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2003 wasn’t a generational draft back in 2003 - the 2004 lockout & rule changes helped make it so
 
GGpX said:
Why's that?

Beyond the lottery, I'm don't think this is a generational draft like 2003 or 2015 was. Historically, more often than not, the statistical probabilities of drafting a top-6 forward or top-4 d-man in the middle of the first aren't that high.

I think there's a much better chance that Lafrenière can turn it around than drafting someone in the mid-first, waiting 2-3 years and hoping he becomes something.
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Habs managed to screw those both up.

But let's just not pull a Boston.
 
because ownership will not buy into a "fuck the fans" attitude and not want to be decent no later than 2024, I would be very shocked if we took the Russian. I don't care about the politics/optics of taking a Russian, and I doubt Geoff does, but the practicality is he won't come for at least 3 yrs if that. We can't afford to wait that long for a top 5 guy to play for us.
 
TheCountofMonteCristo said:
because ownership will not buy into a "fuck the fans" attitude and not want to be decent no later than 2024, I would be very shocked if we took the Russian. I don't care about the politics/optics of taking a Russian, and I doubt Geoff does, but the practicality is he won't come for at least 3 yrs if that. We can't afford to wait that long for a top 5 guy to play for us.
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Firstly Michkov is very special offensively and I could absolutely see them taking him but as a value pick. Like if the Panthers continue to slide and we get like 3rd and 10th and he's slipped? They will likely bite. He's that good.
 
Habsy said:
Firstly Michkov is very special offensively and I could absolutely see them taking him but as a value pick. Like if the Panthers continue to slide and we get like 3rd and 10th and he's slipped? They will likely bite. He's that good.
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I agree. The problem I have with Count’s reasoning here is that just because the owner wants his team to be good sooner than later doesn’t mean they can or will be. Every owner wants his team to be good . . . If only it was that easy.
 
And in response to my question, I would take the 1OA and a lower Panthers pick over two in the top 5 this year only because this is also entertainment and having a generational player on the Habs (the first since Flower) would be highly entertaining.
 
Krustchev said:
I agree. The problem I have with Count’s reasoning here is that just because the owner wants his team to be good sooner than later doesn’t mean they can or will be. Every owner wants his team to be good . . . If only it was that easy.
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what GM will be willing to wait possibly 5 yrs for a top 5 to join the team? not many. The political aspects are also a factor regardless of what people think, not because Russians are evil knuckle dragging Nazis attacking extremely democratic peace loving Ukrainians who treated Russians on Donbas perfectly (saracsm off) but because there is a risk of conscription or Vlad not letting him out). I might take him with a 3rd 1st
 
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MN took Kaprisov. Someone will take Michkov before the 15th pick. Bet on it. You're really not getting how good this kid is.
 
Habsy said:
MN took Kaprisov. Someone will take Michkov before the 15th pick. Bet on it. You're really not getting how good this kid is.
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If he's available when it gets to the Florida pick... you absolutely take him. Assuming it's outside of the top 5 of course. Can you imagine if we end up in the top 3 and also land Michkov?
 
Habsy said:
Imagine Bedard and Michkov. Drool. Cup city.
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Seriously... that's potentially Crosby/Malkin-esque

Like really, I hate the idea of waiting for Michkov's contract to be over... but it's 3 years from the time he's drafted till he's good to go. Drafting a player at 6, 7... 10th or whatever you're going to be waiting 3 years for them anyway. With Michkov though, you might have a 21 year-old superstar coming in 3 years.
 
Habspatrol said:
Seriously... that's potentially Crosby/Malkin-esque

Like really, I hate the idea of waiting for Michkov's contract to be over... but it's 3 years from the time he's drafted till he's good to go. Drafting a player at 6, 7... 10th or whatever you're going to be waiting 3 years for them anyway. With Michkov though, you might have a 21 year-old superstar coming in 3 years.
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And the Habs won't rush him like kk, Slaf, Chuck
 
Habsy said:
MN took Kaprisov. Someone will take Michkov before the 15th pick. Bet on it. You're really not getting how good this kid is.
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In round 5, Kucherov also dropped into round 2 because of the “will he leave Russia” factor…
 
Sal_Butera said:
He will drop out of top-10 IMO, simply because GMs want to know what the scouts have seen of potential draftees with their own eyes during draft year vs their peers
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There's zero chance that Michkov drops out of the top 10. Maybe... and it's a huge maybe, he falls to like 7-8.
 
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