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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

Volcanologist said:
Not sure how Marner doesn't get at least 90-100 points for the next several years assuming health. By how much is he overpaid in that event? As I've said, I think the day of the 8 figure hockey star has arrived and people are still getting used to it. These bridge deals simply postpone the inevitable for a couple of years.

Now the Leafs didn't get team-friendly deals from Matthews or Marner, or Tavares for that matter (they paid a fair but full price), but I don't think we'll have a problem getting value from players that good. At least not for the next 5 seasons.

Also, there's certainly a chance for us to get greater value than cap hit past the top of the roster in the next few years. For example Johnsson or Kapanen may have another gear. If not, they are at least fairly paid and locked up for several seasons. We have yet to see what value Kerfoot and Mikheyev bring. Sandin and Dermott could also potentially punch above their weight in the near to mid term. Perhaps substantially, if we're lucky.
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It's not so much that Marner is overpaid, it's that he's not underpaid like most young players are. You hope that guys coming off their ELC should still be at a discount for a few years.

Basically, not getting a discount on them means you're really tight for space for at least the next couple seasons. This year you're basically going to constantly be doing paper transactions to shuffle guys around, and you might actually run into some serious trouble if too many guys get hurt but aren't hurt long enough to go on LTIR.

But if you can make it through that, and the cap continues to rise, then at least you avoid having to pay UFA prices for all those guys down the road. You know you have them all locked in for 5-6 years, and basically can plan your cap space that far into the future without knowing whether a guy like Point is going to cost you 9M or 14M or nothing 4 years down the road. Whether that ends up being better for you long-term than saving a bit of money for now, hard to say.
 
UWHabs said:
It's not so much that Marner is overpaid, it's that he's not underpaid like most young players are. You hope that guys coming off their ELC should still be at a discount for a few years.

Basically, not getting a discount on them means you're really tight for space for at least the next couple seasons. This year you're basically going to constantly be doing paper transactions to shuffle guys around, and you might actually run into some serious trouble if too many guys get hurt but aren't hurt long enough to go on LTIR.

But if you can make it through that, and the cap continues to rise, then at least you avoid having to pay UFA prices for all those guys down the road. You know you have them all locked in for 5-6 years, and basically can plan your cap space that far into the future without knowing whether a guy like Point is going to cost you 9M or 14M or nothing 4 years down the road. Whether that ends up being better for you long-term than saving a bit of money for now, hard to say.
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Yep.

For the production he's likely to give us, it's hard to argue that he doesn't deserve the money than he's being paid. Or that guys like Matthews or McDavid actually deserve to be paid more than they're currently being paid.

But this isn't happening in a vacuum. You're competing against 30-31 other teams, and if you're overpaying massively relative to the rest of the teams you're competing with, you've put yourself at a competitive disadvantage.
 
UWHabs said:
It's not so much that Marner is overpaid, it's that he's not underpaid like most young players are. You hope that guys coming off their ELC should still be at a discount for a few years.
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That is what you used to hope, because shelling out for those veteran 32 year old free agents was expensive. That was before teams realized paying players for what they used to be able to do wasn't working in a cap system.

Basically, not getting a discount on them means you're really tight for space for at least the next couple seasons. This year you're basically going to constantly be doing paper transactions to shuffle guys around, and you might actually run into some serious trouble if too many guys get hurt but aren't hurt long enough to go on LTIR.
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They were already doing that last season, sending down guys every day they could etc. to maximize space. Pridham wrote the rules. He's on it.

But if you can make it through that, and the cap continues to rise, then at least you avoid having to pay UFA prices for all those guys down the road. You know you have them all locked in for 5-6 years, and basically can plan your cap space that far into the future without knowing whether a guy like Point is going to cost you 9M or 14M or nothing 4 years down the road. Whether that ends up being better for you long-term than saving a bit of money for now, hard to say.
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The Leafs didn't have to kick the can down the road. It was an option for them, but not really one that they needed to use. I am skeptical that this maneuver will save any real money for the teams that did it. At best, I suppose it makes the player easier to trade in the mid term than Marner because of the lower AAV, but I'm pretty sure that is not the intention with any of this year's RFA crop.
 
Yeah, these bridge deals are as much a bet by the RFA's, on revenues exploding in the next few years as anything else.

They're going to be chasing contracts that are 12-13% (or more) of the cap. But they're hoping to do it at a 92-95 million dollar cap, not an 81.5 million dollar cap.
 
Bridge deals are good now, but are a concern when they end. It's funny Matthews at 5 years is seen as the end of the world, but 3 years for everyone else is fine.
 
I still dont understand why a player would want a bridge unless its the only option.

7x3 with backloading due to a min 4th year QO vs 6x9.5 with front loading.

Not only do they need the $$$ to be 11.5M at the lowest for the next 3 years but they have to make up for the time value of money and interest that could be earned.
 
trujaysfan said:
I still dont understand why a player would want a bridge unless its the only option.

7x3 with backloading due to a min 4th year QO vs 6x9.5 with front loading.

Not only do they need the $$$ to be 11.5M at the lowest for the next 3 years but they have to make up for the time value of money and interest that could be earned.
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I think it has to do with the general shift in contracts.

So if you're 22 and you sign an 8 yr, big money deal now. You're 30 when it ends, and the trend is clearly moving towards paying for your actual prime years (22-26/27) and not for your twilight/post prime. This trend will likely pick up as we get closer to that hypothetical 8 yr contract ending.

So if you're trying to maximize career earnings, taking that bridge now makes a lot of sense. You take the 7 million now, sign a bigger (potentially much bigger) 8 year deal at 25/26 yrs old that carries you into your early/mid 30's. You're betting that the 7 million now, combined with the bigger 8 year deal is more than you would make on the back end of your career.
 
The long term deals didn't work out great for a lot of players that signed them. Guys like MacKinnon, Scheifele, Marchand, Pastrnak, Rielly, Slavin etc. threw away some of their prime, high earning years.

Of course it works out great for some like Rick Dipetro, or Zaitsev.

But like ME said, if the expensive UFA deals are drying up you need to maximize earnings in your prime.
 
Be interesting to see how this plays out over the years.

Dubas either looks like a genius for getting Marner signed for 6 years or looks like absolute shit if these guys re up for the same or less than Marner has now.
 
Cojo said:
Be interesting to see how this plays out over the years.

Dubas either looks like a genius for getting Marner signed for 6 years or looks like absolute shit if these guys re up for the same or less than Marner has now.
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It would take some crazy deals to get the others up to Marner's earnings.



I haven't checked his numbers (he's usually reliable when not in the middle of drama class). Laine has more time to make up the gap but it would still have to be a really, really juicy deal.
 
The only one that is as good according to the numbers though is Point, who likely gave the Tampa Bay discount because everyone fucking does.
 
I don't think anyone can say how good these guys are relative to one another at this stage. They're all still very young.
 
It is nice not to worry about these deals for awhile. There is some major negatives about 2-3 year deals although if it's not the Leafs giving them out no one mentions it.
Leafs probably have a pretty god idea where the NHL cap is going.
 
MindzEye said:
Going forward? Sure. But you can absolutely measure their relative performance to this point.
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But that's part of the issue. These contracts are betting on future performance.

Mitch, for instance, had a wickedly good season last year offensively.

2.87 pts/60 and 1.78 a1/60

Previous two years were quite different

2.12 pts/60 and 0.70 a1/60

They're betting on that most recent year as being the new norm.
 
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