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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

BeLeafer said:
But that's part of the issue. These contracts are betting on future performance.

Mitch, for instance, had a wickedly good season last year offensively.

2.87 pts/60 and 1.78 p1/60

Previous two years were quite different

2.12 pts/60 and 0.70 p1/60

They're betting on that most recent year as being the new norm.
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Over the life of their ELCs, marner has significantly better numbers than all of them.
 
zeke said:
Over the life of their ELCs, marner has significantly better numbers than all of them.
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I'm sure that's the case. The issue being discussed, however, is future performance. Marner's numbers spiked last year -- is that an outlier or the new norm. No one can say with certainty.
 
BeLeafer said:
I'm sure that's the case. The issue being discussed, however, is future performance. Marner's numbers spiked last year -- is that an outlier or the new norm. No one can say with certainty.
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But they're not just looking at the spike. On overall numbers, he's been plain better than all of them.
 
I have no idea what they were looking at but the first two years are very different from the third. Without that huge year there's no way in hell he would have got that contract.

When you blend them all together to make your point it masks the fact that there are significant differences over the three years you average. This is why using averages can be problematic.
 
All the players have high spike years in there. That's not unique to marner.

But his total body of offensive work is simply better - by a healthy margin. It doesn't matter whether you compare best years to best years, worst year to worst years, median to median, mean to mean....they all say the same thing.
 
I was using Marner as an example of betting on future performance. He's the most obvious due to the term and also the level of increase in his offensive output. His p1/60 when up by ~150%. I wasn't saying anything about the others but I'd be surprised if they have such a y-o-y increase.
 
If we just look at their first 2 seasons, just the offensive numbers:

Rookie + Soph (5 on 5)

Marner: 2.06 P/60, 1.52 P1/60
Point: 1.95 P/60, 1.49 P1/60
Aho: 1.89 P/60, 1.51 P1/60
Tkachuk: 1.88 P/60, 1.46 P1/60
Rantanen: 1.80 P/60, 1.30 P1/60

Marner was already on his way to being the highest paid of the lot (the powerplay gap between Marner & #2 on the list is ridiculous, Mitch was 2.18 P/60 ahead of Rantanen....his power play production stupid, not far off double what Brayden Point's was at 5th on the list)
 
And unlike guys like point and Rantanen marner didn't get to play with any 1st line talent in those 2yrs.
 
MindzEye said:
If we just look at their first 2 seasons, just the offensive numbers:

Rookie + Soph (5 on 5)

Marner: 2.06 P/60, 1.52 P1/60
Point: 1.95 P/60, 1.49 P1/60
Aho: 1.89 P/60, 1.51 P1/60
Tkachuk: 1.88 P/60, 1.46 P1/60
Rantanen: 1.80 P/60, 1.30 P1/60

Marner was already on his way to being the highest paid of the lot (the powerplay gap between Marner & #2 on the list is ridiculous, Mitch was 2.18 P/60 ahead of Rantanen....his power play production stupid, not far off double what Brayden Point's was at 5th on the list)
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These gaps are quite small and marginal in some instances. Watching the game but would be good to see the 3rd year for each.
 
BeLeafer said:
These gaps are quite small and marginal in some instances.
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The gaps are quite small 5 on 5. The PP gap is fucking immense.

Watching the game but would be good to see the 3rd year for each.
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Mitch thumps the field, only Point is remotely close. Only Point is with .68 points per 60 in either category. Point is between .3-.4 in both P/60 and P1/60 behind Marner in both as well.

So Mitch edges the field in years 1-2 (with PP impact acting are a very solid tie breaker if we want to look at the gaps and consider them inconsequential) and then decimates the field in year 3.
 
MindzEye said:
Mitch thumps the field, only Point is remotely close. Only Point is with .68 points per 60 in either category. Point is between .3-.4 in both P/60 and P1/60 behind Marner in both as well.

So Mitch edges the field in years 1-2 (with PP impact acting are a very solid tie breaker if we want to look at the gaps and consider them inconsequential) and then decimates the field in year 3.
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Yep, that's what I would expect. Mitch had a ridiculous year last year. If he can do that regularly moving forward, great.
 
Best to worst years 5v5 (PP in brackets)

Marner (21) 2.88, 2.59 (6.01, 3.72)
Point (22) 2.69, 2.27 (7.84, 4.84)
Aho (20): 2.38, 1.95 (4.66, 3.79)
Tkachuk (21): 2.25, 1.74 (5.95, 4.52)
Rantanen (22): 2.16, 1.47 (6.73, 5.68)

Point (21): 2.32, 1.86 (3.59, 1.96)
Marner (19): 2.18, 1.61 (6.59, 4.28)
Tkachuk (19): 2.06, 1.61 (5.14, 3.95)
Aho (21): 1.96, 1.46 (5.79, 3.27)
Rantanen (21): 2.09, 1.36 (7.00, 4.60)

Marner (20): 1.93, 1.44 (8.40, 6.05)
Tkachuk (20): 1.69, 1.30 (4.86, 3.34)
Rantanen (20): 1.49, 1.26 (2.74, 1.52)
Aho (19): 1.41, 1.08 (5.37, 3.69)
Point (20): 1.49, 1.04 (4.28, 2.14)

Just noticed that last year was Mitch's worst year on the PP.
 
Our PP set up was so bad last year. Kind of crazy that the final numbers ended up as good as they did given how inept it was for the majority of the season. When it was hot though, it was fucking en fuego. Ran somewhere around 15% for 3/4 of the year though.
 
BeLeafer said:
It really was brutal watching that never changing pile of shit.
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It was producing stupid good advanced stats, so I get why they gave it some time to regress to the mean. But you have to figure that with 6 weeks left before the playoffs or so, you switch shit up. Nope, just keep forcing the puck to Mitch in an area that he's never going to score from, and everyone in the universe knows that he's trying to force a seam pass through.

Just terrible.
 
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