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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

BeLeafer said:
This is the thing I don't like about this purported trend of post-ELCs escalating -- it's teams taking on added risk by betting on unproven commodities. This is particularly concerning with blueliners like Provorov. I can name at least a few who recently came out of the gates blazing and the faded pretty baldly (Myers, Ekblad ... at least one other I can't recall).
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I'm interested in taking a look at those....

Ekblad Yr1-3: ES 17:50 (B- qoc), 0.87p/60, 0.59p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +0.4xgfrel -- PP 2:45, 2.69p/60, 1.53p1/60
Ekblad Yr4-5: ES 18:37 (A+ qoc), 0.88p/60, 0.55p1/60, -0.1cfrel, -1.1xgfrel --- PP 1:53, 4.07p/60, 2.71p1/60

I don't think Ekblad is fading at all, really - in fact given the massive jump in QoC I think he's been much better post-ELC. Not awesome, but a legit good 2-way elite comp top pair dman.

The key here is that Ekblad didn't actually do anything close to elite on his ELC. He played against pretty soft competition and put up only good not great numbers overall. And of course he did get that serious concussion near the end of his ELC too.

Myers Yr1-3: ES 17:08 (A- qoc), 1.02p/60, 0.74p1/60, +0.2cfrel, -0.3xgfrel --- PP 2:44, 3.54p/60, 2.03p1/60
Myers Yr4-10: ES 17:08 (B+ qoc), 0.75p/60, 0.50p1/60, -0.6cfrel, -1.0xgfrel --- PP 2:06, 2.86p/60, 1.97p1/60

Yeah that's a weird one. That's a flat out awesome ELC performance, followed by a steep drop into mediocrity or worse. The one thing I'll say here is that he's been absolutely injury riddled his whole career starting in the last year of his ELC:

Games Missed:

Year 3: 27
Year 4: 43
Year 5: 20
Year 6: 11
Year 7: 9
Year 8: 71
 
for ekblad I actually don't see it as a decline given the massive increase in qoc.

For Myers, yeah, that's not only a solid drop but exacerbated by the drop in qoc.

I think you may have misread Provo's rookie year stats - he was a big negative in xgf that year.
 
Ah, missed the minus symbol on Prov's first year. Maybe not so bad.

It's fair to say you'd expect a drop with increased QoC but what's the norm there? Do all players see a big hit? How often does it stabilize or improve over time?
 
hard to say exactly.

but say in ekblad's case a 1.5 drop from elc to after elc is enough to besignificant, but not huge (generally when it's within one I . while a bump from B- qoc (borderline #4 dman usage) to A+ qoc (elite #1 usage) is huge. In this case I would eyeball it as actually being slightly better. If the drop was bigger (say 2-3 rel) i'd probably call it even. so i dunno, somewhere around 1-2rel for every letter grade or thereabouts? I also try to keep my eye on both corsi and xgf simultaneously just for more data points.
 
Interesting. You'd certainly know better than most on how to judge the impact. I'd really like to see someone do some in-depth statistical work on QoC.
 
Given what else Philly has in their D group, that contract was about as good as they could do. They HAD to get him signed.
 
jeffbear said:
Given what else Philly has in their D group, that contract was about as good as they could do. They HAD to get him signed.
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it's funny cuz all we've heard for years is about what a stacked young dcorps they had coming.
 
zeke said:
it's funny cuz all we've heard for years is about what a stacked young dcorps they had coming.
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Sanheim looks like a real good one. Provorov could be a #1. Ghost is limited but seems to be a solid 2nd pair guy. Myers is still unknown but I like him as a prospect.

You know, they may not have been far off. Those guys are panning out quite well.
 
zeke said:
it's funny cuz all we've heard for years is about what a stacked young dcorps they had coming.
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They may still ... in a couple of years. In the meantime, they've managed to fill out their top 6 with coat racks like Niskanen, Braun and Hagg. That is NOT a good group, and taking Provorov out would have been a terrible blow.
 
Yeah Sanheim is Dermotty good I th
jeffbear said:
They may still ... in a couple of years. In the meantime, they've managed to fill out their top 6 with coat racks like Niskanen, Braun and Hagg. That is NOT a good group, and taking Provorov out would have been a terrible blow.
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Ya know I like to point how overrated their kids are but I gotta be honest I'm a big Niskanen fan even if he's fallen off from his cup winning form (he was the real #1 on that dcorps that year), and think he and provo can be a good top pair.

Sanheim-gost could potentially be a good 2nd pair to, though there's huge question Mark's there.

Brain is pretty terrible but might be passable if used in a bottom pair role, maybe paired with a kid like Myers.
 
Spurgeon is better but yeah, potentially less points. I think a lot depends on Barrie this year. Does he get 50+ points and top pp time? Or is he on the second unit and gets closer to 30-40 points? If it's the latter I can't see him getting more than 7 for 7 years after accounting for the minimal cap inflation we'll see next year.
 
And remember... He's a d in the toughest market for d in the NHL. We saw what that did for Gardiner. I think he'll get a lot of criticism for his defensive game, which is pretty awful to be fair.
 
Spurgeon is gonna be 38 in the last year of that deal. Not wild about that kind of term for a guy that will effectively be 31 when the deal kicks in.

Barrie is close to two years younger.
 
BeLeafer said:
Spurgeon is gonna be 38 in the last year of that deal. Not wild about that kind of term for a guy that will effectively be 31 when the deal kicks in.

Barrie is close to two years younger.
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I have heard rumblings he may want to play back home in Vancouver so this could all be moot anyway.


But yeah spurgeon is far better anyway. Older or not. The Toronto d market downgrade could help too. I have a feeling he won't be very well liked here. Seems that the media has been pumping his tires all summer. Certainly wouldn't be the case if they saw him play every night. This market hates d like him.
 
Don't sell Barrie short at evens, though.

Last 3yrs ES p1/60 (min 2500min)

1.Burns 1.13
2.Barrie .97
3.Hamilton .94
4.Hedman .90
5.Rielly .89

P/60

1.Burns 1.55
2.Karlsson 1.48
3.Hedman 1.31
4.Hamilton 1.30
5.Josi 1.28
6.Rielly 1.23
7.Klingberg 1.22
8.Barrie 1.20
9.Letang 1.18
10.Carlson 1.17
 
zeke said:
Don't sell Barrie short at evens, though.

Last 3yrs ES p1/60 (min 2500min)

1.Burns 1.13
2.Barrie .97
3.Hamilton .94
4.Hedman .90
5.Rielly .89

P/60

1.Burns 1.55
2.Karlsson 1.48
3.Hedman 1.31
4.Hamilton 1.30
5.Josi 1.28
6.Rielly 1.23
7.Klingberg 1.22
8.Barrie 1.20
9.Letang 1.18
10.Carlson 1.17
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Oh I'm not. I've followed his career closely for years and called for the leafs to trade for him on here a few years ago after an off-year. I got roasted to death of course. I've loved him for years though. Dude is fucking electric to watch and really as a fan I want to watch an entertaining team before anything else. Give me 82 games of electric entertainment and I'm happy regardless. He helps provide that shit.
 
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