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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

BeLeafer said:
It could certainly look like a steal in few years, it could also look like stupidity.

The question is ... what do you use to bank on upside. I think it's a big red flag that he stagnated in his third year and is no better than a couple of (relatively well seasoned) rookies.
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He has two proven years of basically 50 points and he's like 21. There isn't a planet in the universe where that isn't worth at least 5.5.

You're reading too much into this stagnant thing. That isn't as uncommon or concerning as you think. As I said, he's worth it even if he doesn't improve from here.
 
Preston said:
He has two proven years of basically 50 points and he's like 21. There isn't a planet on earth where that isn't worth at least 5.5.

You're reading too much into this stagnant thing. That isn't as uncommon or concerning as you think.
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He's stagnated sub-50 points. Take a look at some of the other 2015 forwards -- the 'names' all show improvement here or a breakout (Eichel, Connor, Aho, Rantanen, Meier) despite most not getting the rookie draft year. Barzal regressed after JT left, but he's still above TK's level. I'll dig into this a bit more when I have time, but I think progression is important at this level of committment.
 
Well if we're comparing him to fucking rants and Aho then yeah I'll take a while guess and say he won't be as good. With inflation, this looks like a steal in three years even if he doesn't improve at all.

The worst case scenario is that is a very fair market value deal. And there's upside for a lot better. Where is the downside? I'm confused.
 
Preston said:
Well if we're comparing him to fucking rants and Aho then yeah I'll take a while guess and say he won't be as good. With inflation, this looks like a steal in three years even if he doesn't improve at all.

The worst case scenario is that is a very fair market value deal. And there's upside for a lot better. Where is the downside? I'm confused.
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I'm comparing him to other good young players to see evidence of the stagnation you suggested is normal.
 
BeLeafer said:
I'm comparing him to other good young players to see evidence of the stagnation you suggested is normal.
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Gonna go ahead and say it's a little harsh to compare him to franchise players. And remember, progression isn't always linear and varies for different players often depending on opportunity.

It's a great value contract. Don't worry though, I still like Dermott. Both teams did well in the trade. Leafs couldn't afford this contract anyway.
 
Preston said:
Gonna go ahead and say it's a little harsh to compare him to franchise players. And remember, progression isn't always linear and varies for different players often depending on opportunity.
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Fine. Take Eichel and Ratanen out of it. You still see the same thing - progression in production/higher production for the good players that merit term.
 
I'm not as consumed about this improvement thing as you are. Even if there's only a 25% or less chance he improves, the contract seems like an obvious great one to me.

I would have said the same if the leafs signed kappy or Johnny to a similar deal. When their contracts are up, you don't think they'll be getting 7+ even if they show minimal improvement? It'll be mostly all UFA years and that will be the going rate for 45-50 point players. It already almost is for UFAs.
 
The more I look at it, the more convinced I become that this deal is an overcommittment.

Take a look at his xGF%, SF%, SCF%, HDCF% ... unpretty relative to his teammates. Don't see the appeal.
 
I don't even care about arguing how good he will be. That's a different argument than what is required to evaluate the contract. It's irrelevant.
 
BTW, Mods, last years thread is still stickied. (I used to do this housekeeping my mod privileges were nuked with the new platform.)
MindzEye said:
Why are you both using raw scoring numbers?
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Just responding to pretz's metrics. Started with pts/60.

It's not like they're irrelevelant, in any event.
 
Konecny

Yr 1: .42G/60 1.55 P/60 (3rd in P/60 on Flyers)
Yr 2: 1.22G/60 2.26 P/60 (2nd on the Flyers in both)
Yr 3: 1.0G/60 2.11 P/60 (2nd on the Flyers in both)

His rookie year wasn't that far behind Nylaner's production (1.55 vs 1.77)
His 2nd year was legit very good, in between Marner's production (2.03) and Willy's (2.38)
His 3rd season was good, but just good. Better than Kappy (1.9) and Nylander's train wreck (1.78) but well off Johnsson (2.49) and the elite Toronto producers.

All told, he's got a strong offensive track record and is only 22. If they start playing him 17-18 minutes a game like they should, I don't see why he wouldn't challenge 30/60 points or better. His G/60 numbers are legit good. His 1.22 from his sophomore season was 13th in the league and though his 1.0 from last season isn't nearly as impressive, he ranked in a T-61 with Brad Marchand and Brayden Point .01 behind Mackinnon.

When looked at as a whole, Konecny is 17th in the NHL in G/60 over the last 2 seasons combined. Directly ahead of him are Tarasenko and Pastrnak. Right behind him is Brock Boeser and Jamie Benn. Is this a discount deal? No. But the kid appears to be plenty good at the most desired skill set in hockey. He can put the puck in the net pretty gud.
 
Canucks sign Boeser.

3 X 5.875 with a $7.5M base salary for the final year.

Which is higher than Tampa's most recent reported bridge deal offer for Brayden Point.
 
With Boeser & McAvoy, this kind of deal makes more sense for the teams since they each still have two more years of RFA eligibility left once these three-year deals are up.

But I do wonder how many of these other guys taking three-year bridge deals out of their ELC's will opt to either just accept their qualifying offer in the fourth year or go to arbitration, and then walk to UFA status the next summer at 25-27 years of age.
 
The Canucks have ~$35MM locked up in forwards who have a tough time popping 40 pts. Boeser better deliver.
 
People talk about the Leafs cap situation, but you want to see cap hell look at the Canucks. They spent so much money on shitty players that they can't afford to lock up their best players long term.
 
MindzEye said:
Konecny

Yr 1: .42G/60 1.55 P/60 (3rd in P/60 on Flyers)
Yr 2: 1.22G/60 2.26 P/60 (2nd on the Flyers in both)
Yr 3: 1.0G/60 2.11 P/60 (2nd on the Flyers in both)

His rookie year wasn't that far behind Nylaner's production (1.55 vs 1.77)
His 2nd year was legit very good, in between Marner's production (2.03) and Willy's (2.38)
His 3rd season was good, but just good. Better than Kappy (1.9) and Nylander's train wreck (1.78) but well off Johnsson (2.49) and the elite Toronto producers.
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So, his production dipped between 2nd and 3rd seasons.

A more detailed comparison for the the Leafs is provided earlier (maybe your scroll thingy is broken). The difference between him an Kappy is primary assists.
 
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