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Carolina Hurricanes 2024 Summer Talk ... press the reset button?

CanadaCanes said:
Great post and 100% correct.
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His own numbers don’t back that up. 46 goals, 3 players comes out to 15.3 goals per player. The league average goals per skater is 16.77.

So 3 average goal scorers should replace those goals.

I’m not saying we will score more or be better but that none of the guys we let move on are something that isn’t readily replaceable. Do they need to be replaced? Yes. The fit also needs to be good but replacing these kinds of players with younger or less expensive versions is what this team does.
 
The regular season schedule is out. We open with a home and home with Tampa, home for the Devils, then the State Fair roadie hits on 10/18 in Pittsburgh, working west to St. Louis, Edmonton, Calgary, Seattle and ending in Vancouver on 10/28. Colorado, Vegas and Utah are grouped together from 11/9-13. The longest homestand is 5 games from 1/4-12. And April is a nightmare with 6 of 9 games on the road

 
andyt said:
The regular season schedule is out. We open with a home and home with Tampa, home for the Devils, then the State Fair roadie hits on 10/18 in Pittsburgh, working west to St. Louis, Edmonton, Calgary, Seattle and ending in Vancouver on 10/28. Colorado, Vegas and Utah are grouped together from 11/9-13. The longest homestand is 5 games from 1/4-12. And April is a nightmare with 6 of 9 games on the road

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LOL ... Guentzel for home game 1, Dougie, Noesen and Pesce for home game 2. The schedule monkey either hates us or is trying to make sure we get a salty crowd or two in the building before the State Fair break.
 
cmon3 said:
His own numbers don’t back that up. 46 goals, 3 players comes out to 15.3 goals per player. The league average goals per skater is 16.77.

So 3 average goal scorers should replace those goals.

I’m not saying we will score more or be better but that none of the guys we let move on are something that isn’t readily replaceable. Do they need to be replaced? Yes. The fit also needs to be good but replacing these kinds of players with younger or less expensive versions is what this team does.
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Actually, 13 goals for Skeij, 25 goals for Teuvo and Guentzel with 8 goals for the 17 games he played here. So, that was the math. Given this team’s scoring woes, I do think it’s an issue and the Hurricanes need more than 15 goal producers scattered in this line up. Our GAA is likely to go up with Andersen and Kochetkov staying in net and the change in defense, unless you all think we have gotten better on defense and that the signings of Carrier, Robinson and Jost make an offensive threat.
 
Personally, I think it's both a bit early to start looking at that stuff ... because they obviously aren't done yet ... and also an issue that kind of supports too many positions to make just one argument. Carolina finished 8th in the NHL in goals scored last season, and 4th in goals allowed. They were 2nd in goal differential, which is probably a more stable indicator of overall team efficiency. And yet, I never got the sense that any of the people who followed the team closely had all that much confidence in them going into the playoffs (statistical models aside), which was born out by the eventual results. So, we're trying to replicate or produce what exactly? I just feel like there's a lot more that goes into it than saying they need to score 290 goals or whatever ... or give up less than 215 ... two milestones I plucked out of thin air.

And NO ... I'm not arguing that they're better off right now on either side of the ledger. I'm just saying that there's no simple formula and it's not easy to project year to year. At the top end of the team sheet, results can vary pretty wildly year to year, and there are always surprises on both ends of the curve. Games missed to injury are always a total wildcard and impossible to account for with any precision. A lot of your scoring comes from grunts chipping in relatively minor amounts of goals. A large chunk of your scoring comes on special teams and that's often driven by fit and system just like the PK factors into team defense numbers massively. A lot of your point generation comes down to timeliness and competitiveness since teams that fight back into games and/or are good at OTs and shootouts are rewarded with sometimes cheap points. There's a lot that goes into those counting numbers that's hard to just look at on a team stat sheet and project.

And again, today's roster isn't the roster. I think they're closer to finished with the D group and I'm not sure it's so easy to judge if it's better or worse. It's different, for sure, but I don't know what the staff wants to do with baseline pairings or even whether or not they'll make some system tweaks. Up front, I think we've got to get through a couple of more steps in the process before you can really see what's going on.
 
My point is we didn’t lose 3 superstar goal scorers. We lost 2 replaceable goal scorers and Guentzel -who was a rental.

Skjei had 13 we replaced him with Ghost who had 10.
Pesce had 3. We replaced him with Walker who also had 10.

So we replaced 16 with 20 for much less $$

It’s not like 22 was all that the past couple years for us either.

Not saying we don’t need to replace that scoring but that we’re not trying to replace some elite goal scoring slot even if you include Guentzel.

We need to be better than we were this season. Different than we were. We can’t be different without replacing people and opening slots for different guys to step up or come in.

Our D is a system. I think we’ll miss Skjei some but I expect it will end up being as sound defensively as we were last season.

You can’t mortgage the future for production you can replace for less. Especially when we’ve proven the guys we had were not the answer.
 
My worry about our D is that Burns is finally showing signs of age, at least by the time of the playoffs. Having good options who also like to start the offence with a shot from the point might be important. I don't mind the incoming players - I suspect in sum we'll be fine defensively, forechecking away frantically.
 
Yeah, I'm not sure about usage on D. I think a lot of fans are assuming that Orlov/Chatfield will stay intact and slide into the Skjei/Pesce slot, but there's zero chance they get the same usage even if they stick together. That pairing saw basically every difficult assignment and every sticky d-zone start. That will probably get spread around a lot more, which could be a positive just by causing other teams to adjust tactics on the fly. Last season opponents got WAY too much joy targeting Pesce deep in the d-zone both by pressing him when he had the puck and making him deal with guys running to the back post when he didn't. Some bright opposing scout hit on that tactic sometime during the 22-23 season and worked enough that most everybody copied it.

I suspect that the Canes will have better luck spreading out tough shifts if they go with Walker on the right side of Orlov. That frees Chatfield up to go back to partnering Ghost, which worked out OK in 22-23. Then they can mix and match the other two without being too concerned about sheltering the 3rd pair. I wouldn't be opposed to looking at Burns on the 3rd pair with Ghost either, knowing that you can play absolutely anybody next to Slavin and be fine in 90% of situations.
 
Welcome home, Riley Stillman!

The Canes signed Stillman to a 1 year, 2 way contract at the NHL minimum and $150k in the AHL with a $350k guarantee. He played all of last season at AHL Rochester. He's bounced around, the Canes are the 5th organization he’s played for since signing with the Panthers in 2018. He has 4 goals and 22 assists in 158 NHL games.
 
Good. I really didn't like the group of tweeners the Canes have in the AHL. Stillman is more seasoned that the other options in the 7/8/9 slot
 
cmon3 said:
His own numbers don’t back that up. 46 goals, 3 players comes out to 15.3 goals per player. The league average goals per skater is 16.77.

So 3 average goal scorers should replace those goals.

I’m not saying we will score more or be better but that none of the guys we let move on are something that isn’t readily replaceable. Do they need to be replaced? Yes. The fit also needs to be good but replacing these kinds of players with younger or less expensive versions is what this team does.
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This, didn't yall watch Moneyball?
 
HeyKurtz said:
The Canes have signed Riley Stillman to a one-year, two-way deal to provide some depth on D…

www.nhl.com

Canes Sign Stillman To One-Year Contract | Carolina Hurricanes

Defenseman has tallied 26 points in 158 career NHL games
www.nhl.com www.nhl.com
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I really like Stillman before Coghlan (Coughlan) or (Tiny) Ty Smith as a depth D call up. Stillman actually can play a rough and tumble style and even drop the gloves if needed.

If Morrow is seventh on the depth chart you would hope Stillman is eighth followed by Coghlan and Smith.
 
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