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Core 4 No More: The Motherfucking Off-Season Thread

MindzEye said:
Fwiw, in regards to the "we're making the goalies look good" argument:

16-17 Holtby:
vs Leafs: .925
vs Penguings: .887

17-18 Rask:
vs Leafs: .899
vs Lightning: .907

18-19 Rask:
vs Leafs: .928
vs CBJ: .948
vs Canes: .956
vs Blue: .912

19-20 Korpaslikins:
vs Leafs: .952
vs Lightning: .932

20-21 Price:
vs Leafs: .932
vs Jets: .942
vs Vegas: .933
vs Tampa: .888

21-22 Vasy:
vs Leafs: .897
vs Panthers: .981
vs Rangers: .919
vs Avs: .905

22-23 Bob:
vs Bruins: .891
vs Leafs: .943
vs Canes: .966
vs Vegas: .844

23-24 Swayman:
vs Leafs: .950
vs Panthers: .917


Other than Holtby in yr1, I don't see a lot of evidence for goalies playing great against us and then getting dummied by the next team they play. We just keep running into above average goalies or even the goalies who had bad seasons (Price, Bob) were elite at some point in their careers and able to find their form in the playoffs.
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yep.

Same people who think we didn’t get goalie’d majority of these series, are the same ones that fall for the gamblers fallacy when the roulette table hits on black six times in a row…..has zero impact on whether the next role will be black or red.

Hockey is a pretty fluky sport in general, when the best team only has a 55-60% chance of winning any individual playoff game, at most. Then you tally up the calibre of teams we lost to (absurd amount of them made the finals)….the play of the goalies in the individual series….the amount of games we played vastly better than the opponent in elimination games, but still lost….and it’s kinda goofy to then pretend we can say definitively who is to blame imo.


Sure we could have made some better moves here or there, if we’d had a crystal ball…and swung our odds 5% to the better maybe, but for the most part we had a fantastic process, that just didn’t give us the kinds of results we deserved. (Not saying we deserved a Cup even, just not so many first round exits.)


Hopefully Berube & co find some intriguing ways to move the needle to the positive, but really there’s nothing that can move the needle more than just maximizing our odds of having the best goalie in the series.
 
Montana said:
yep.

Same people who think we didn’t get goalie’d majority of these series, are the same ones that fall for the gamblers fallacy when the roulette table hits on black six times in a row…..has zero impact on whether the next role will be black or red.

Hockey is a pretty fluky sport in general, when the best team only has a 55-60% chance of winning any individual playoff game, at most. Then you tally up the calibre of teams we lost to (absurd amount of them made the finals)….the play of the goalies in the individual series….the amount of games we played vastly better than the opponent in elimination games, but still lost….and it’s kinda goofy to then pretend we can say definitively who is to blame imo.


Sure we could have made some better moves here or there, if we’d had a crystal ball…and swung our odds 5% to the better maybe, but for the most part we had a fantastic process, that just didn’t give us the kinds of results we deserved. (Not saying we deserved a Cup even, just not so many first round exits.)


Hopefully Berube & co find some intriguing ways to move the needle to the positive, but really there’s nothing that can move the needle more than just maximizing our odds of having the best goalie in the series.
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Some of these same people still want to spend no resources on G and run out Martin Jones or Eric Kallgrob
 
The problem is its not easy to just go and get a good goalie. Getting a cheap 1B to team up with Woll is probably the 3rd best option this offseason behind Saros and Ullmark, and Saros and Ullmark may not even get traded. Realistically it could be the only option.
 
leafman101 said:
The problem is its not easy to just go and get a good goalie. Getting a cheap 1B to team up with Woll is probably the 3rd best option this offseason behind Saros and Ullmark, and Saros and Ullmark may not even get traded. Realistically it could be the only option.
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I feel like Saros probably gets traded.

And i think because of injury history Woll needs to be the 1B, his friend has to be durable.
 
Montana said:
yep.

Same people who think we didn’t get goalie’d majority of these series, are the same ones that fall for the gamblers fallacy when the roulette table hits on black six times in a row…..has zero impact on whether the next role will be black or red.

Hockey is a pretty fluky sport in general, when the best team only has a 55-60% chance of winning any individual playoff game, at most. Then you tally up the calibre of teams we lost to (absurd amount of them made the finals)….the play of the goalies in the individual series….the amount of games we played vastly better than the opponent in elimination games, but still lost….and it’s kinda goofy to then pretend we can say definitively who is to blame imo.


Sure we could have made some better moves here or there, if we’d had a crystal ball…and swung our odds 5% to the better maybe, but for the most part we had a fantastic process, that just didn’t give us the kinds of results we deserved. (Not saying we deserved a Cup even, just not so many first round exits.)


Hopefully Berube & co find some intriguing ways to move the needle to the positive, but really there’s nothing that can move the needle more than just maximizing our odds of having the best goalie in the series.
Click to expand...
So we should stop spending way too much on too few people and instead spend some serious coin to get grade A goalies. I'd be happy to give less....a lot less....to those "star" players who continually seem to disappoint in the playoff rounds.
 
If Saros or Ullmark are moved the Leafs have to get one. But the point is if they aren't moved then we're just fucked to begin with.

The only hope is Woll stays healthy for the first time ever, and can play more games than he's ever played in his life. Even with health though, going back 10 years he has maxed out at 37 games, and only played more than 30 as a pro once.
 
leafman101 said:
If Saros or Ullmark are moved the Leafs have to get one. But the point is if they aren't moved then we're just fucked to begin with.

The only hope is Woll stays healthy for the first time ever, and can play more games than he's ever played in his life. Even with health though, going back 10 years he has maxed out at 37 games, and only played more than 30 as a pro once.
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Markstrom is technically an option
 
leafman101 said:
If Saros or Ullmark are moved the Leafs have to get one. But the point is if they aren't moved then we're just fucked to begin with.

The only hope is Woll stays healthy for the first time ever, and can play more games than he's ever played in his life. Even with health though, going back 10 years he has maxed out at 37 games, and only played more than 30 as a pro once.
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We're not a contender, so going with Woll is fine. Fix that D.
 
JackBurton said:
We're not a contender, so going with Woll is fine. Fix that D.
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Yeah I mean theyre a top 5 regular season team over the past 8 years so that’s a pretty tight definition of what constitutes a “contender” and at the end of the day for as long as you have a player like Matthews you need to try to win every year. Starting next season with Woll and no viable plan b would be one of the worst management decisions in the history of the league.
 
Free Agent D (NHL Rank)
xGAR (2 years)
Skjei - 18:20 ES TOI/G, 25.9 (20th)
Montour - 18:59, 23.7 (21st)
Chatfield - 13:50, 23.4 (22nd)
Roy - 17:16, 22.6 (26th)
Tanev - 17:05, 21.7 (30th)
McCabe - 17:43, 20.7 (32nd)
Zadorov - 16:02, 17.2 (40th)
Walker - 15:17, 15.6 (49th)
Lilly - 16:24, 1.3 (74th)
Carrier - 15:56, 8.0 (90th)
Pesce - 18:12, 7.2 (99th)
Rielly - 19:10, 6.2 (113th)
Demelo - 17:59, 5.1 (123rd)

Dom's (1 year)
Demelo - 11.7 (16th)
Skjei - 10.4 (19th)
Roy - 9.8 (23rd)
Chatfield - 9.7 (25th)
Montour - 7.3 (32nd)
Rielly - 6.3 (36th)
Walker - 5.9 (37th)
Tanev - 5.7 (40th)
McCabe - 4.9 (49th)
Lilly - 3.9 (58th)
Pesce - 2.0 (79th)
Carrier - 1.6 (84th)
Zadorov - -1.7 (199th)

Both models see Skjei, Roy, Chatfield, Montour, Tanev as borderline #1/good #2s. However, Skjei and Montour are the only ones that actually played top pair minutes.

Roy, Tanev, Pesce come out looking like good second pair dmen that played tough minutes, and Chatfield, Walker and Carrier have good numbers but didn't play much, though Walker and Carrier had good opportunities this year.

Zadorov and Demelo are what they are, which are good Booshies.

Coming out of this offseason with Skjei or Montour is kind of a must. Immediately become arguably our best D.
 
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