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Core 4 No More: The Motherfucking Off-Season Thread

Preston said:
He's just one guy. That's the beauty of having several young pieces that are coming up to ages where they can be expected to produce..not all of them have to hit. And if none do then they're fucked anyway. Getting Debrusk level production for a 4-5m dollar discount is what makes championship level rosters. Seems like they're gonna have to pay for some d, they're paying for elite talent at the top of their lineup. Outside of goaltending, they're gonna also need some value on their depth forwards.

And they'll need a 2c once Tavares goes too. I'd prefer to pay big bucks for a center if one becomes available.
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we need a 2c now.
 
MindzEye said:
Yeah, I don't want to pay a guy 6 million to score 25 goals. But you and I don't see eye to eye on what certain levels of performance are worth, at all so whatever.



AFP takes his "down year" into account.

He's averaged 24 goals per 82 games over his career. This is what he is. Maybe the easiest thing in the league to fall backwards into for cheap is a winger who can score 20 when given an offensive role.
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Last year he paced 35 goals. And he looks like a 35 goal guy to me. That's what I'd be buying.

If I thought Debrusk was a 20-ish goal guy, I wouldn't be interested. But I think he's an easy 30-ish goal guy with upside that we could unlock, basically a more modest Hyman type gamble that Edmonton took.
 
Wayward DP said:
we need a 2c now.
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There is a legit possibility this summer, if pizza footwear plays his cards right, that 2c is this teams only "question mark" by October. They can get average+ value and production up and down their lineup based on their cap space and what is out there for the taking.
 
MindzEye said:
That's not how cap management works.

Even if you are able to move all of them for nothing and replace them with league minimum guys, it frees up like 2.8 million, not 6.
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We have the league minimum guys to do it, and we should use them.

It frees up around $4.5m, not $2.8M.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Last year he paced 35 goals. And he looks like a 35 goal guy to me. That's what I'd be buying.

If I thought Debrusk was a 20-ish goal guy, I wouldn't be interested. But I think he's an easy 30-ish goal guy with upside that we could unlock, basically a more modest Hyman type gamble that Edmonton took.
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He wouldn't be getting 35 goals without being on pp1. He wouldn't be on pp1.
 
Preston said:
He wouldn't be getting 35 goals without being on pp1. He wouldn't be on pp1.
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Only 6 of his 27 goals in 64 games that year were on the PP. Only 3 of 25 the year before.

He doesn't have to be on PP1, but he may end up there, or if they give more time to PP2 under the new regime, he'll get some chances there.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Last year he paced 35 goals. And he looks like a 35 goal guy to me. That's what I'd be buying.
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Last year his SH% and OISH% well above career norms and played on Boston's PP1 (and was junk on it, which is why he wasn't on it this year despite Bergeron no longer being around)

Which forward are you taking off of our PP1 to hope that he has another career season? Why do you want a guy who lost his PP1 job to Pavel fucking Zacha and the corpse of JVR anywhere near our PP?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Only 6 of his 27 goals in 64 games that year were on the PP. Only 3 of 25 the year before.

He doesn't have to be on PP1, but he may end up there, or if they give more time to PP2 under the new regime, he'll get some chances there.
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His 27 goal year is an outlier and that's because his shooting percentage that year was an outlier. He had some luck on his side.

But I agree he's a damn good player and a good signing for most teams. Not the leafs though imo.
 
And btw not being able to score 35 goals without being on pp1 isn't a knock against the player. I don't really think it happens anywhere in the league, does it?
 
Preston said:
His 27 goal year is an outlier and that's because his shooting percentage that year was an outlier. He had some luck on his side.

But I agree he's a damn good player and a good signing for most teams. Not the leafs though imo.
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For a team that badly needs a 25 goal guy on the wing, and that's their only question mark is middle 6 scoring depth and their cap sheet is relatively clean otherwise, he's a decent enough bet. He's not a bad player.

But we have way too many answers for that question, and way too many questions elsewhere on the roster.

I'll be kind and include Debrusk's career year and make it a 2 yr split for him, vs Robbie's rookie season

5v5 G/60
Debrusk: 1.08
Robbie: 1.03


5v5 P/60
Debrusk: 1.86
Robbie: 2.36


PP G/60
Debrusk: 1.49
Robbie: 1.33


PP P/60
Debrusk: 4.46
Robbie: 3.98


With the majority of DeBrusk's PP time over the last 2 yrs being PP1 time, and Robbie almost matching his rates with the small amount of PP2 time he's gotten.

What the fuck are we spending 6 million for on that?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
We have the league minimum guys to do it, and we should use them.

It frees up around $4.5m, not $2.8M.
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League minimum is 750K, but those contracts basically don't exist. If you replaced those 3 with the cheapest reasonable replacements in our organization:

Kampf (2.4) - Holmberg (800K)
Jarnkrok (2.1) - Greby (875K)
Reaves (1.35) - Minten (812K)

You save ~3.4, not 4.5

Nowhere near the 6 million you've suggested.
 
Preston said:
And btw not being able to score 35 goals without being on pp1 isn't a knock against the player. I don't really think it happens anywhere in the league, does it?
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No, it doesn't.

The thing with Debrusk is really, really simple. A really good organization that very much had a need for his skillset gave him absolutely every opportunity to succeed in Boston and what he did was what he did. If you run around trying to make a "Zach Hyman" move, you're nuts. Late career breakouts like that are very rare and it generally comes when a guy didn't get opportunity in his previous city. As Zeke has pointed out, Hyman's main statistical breakout in Edmonton was that he got PP1 time (with Connor and Leon ffs) when he just didn't get it (and wasn't going to) in Toronto.

Look at the other weirdo breakouts...not lightning in a bottle shooting percentage driven career years like Reinhart, but actual sustained increases in productivity like Hyman, Kreider, JT Miller, etc and it's always linked to a significant increase in role. Boston has tried to give Debrusk that role increase a couple of times and he never holds onto it.
 
He's very north-south, yeah. Not much of a pp talent. So you can't even really force feed him into that role like you can with a Hyman. Lovely 5 on 5 player but you sure hope you can get that production for cheaper than the payday he'll get.
 
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