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Core 4 No More: The Motherfucking Off-Season Thread

zeke said:
So do we think this is likely the best D-corps of the Matthews Era or no?

I think the Dcorps only became actually good when both Muzzin and Brodie were added, so I'd only compare it those dcorps.

And i wouldn't include last year, because Brodie's implosion really fucked us and we never recovered (didn't help that our big D signing was fucking Klinger of course).

And really the 22-23 regular season doesn't really belong either, though after we added McCabe at the deadline it gets in there.


So there's 20-21, 21-22, 22-23, and this year in the competition IMO.

20-21 Season ---> Playoffs

Rielly (26) 55gms, 23:37 ---> Rielly (26) 7gms, 25:48
Muzzin (31) 53gms, 21:35 ---> Brodie (30) 7gms, 22:35

Brodie (30) 56gms, 21:33 ---> Holl (29) 7gms, 21:28
Holl (29) 55gms, 21:04 ---> Muzzin (31) 6gms, 19:30

Bogosian (30) 45gms, 14:32 ---> Bogosian (30) 7gms, 15:00
Dermott (24) 51gms, 13:13 ---> Dermott (24) 3gms, 16:15
Sandin (20) 9gms, 14:40 ---> Sandin (20) 5gms, 13:13


21-22 Season ---> Playoffs

Rielly (27) 82gms, 23:44 ---> Rielly (27) 7gms, 22:35
Brodie (31) 82gms, 82gms, 21:19 ---> Brodie (31) 7gms, 22:47

Muzzin (32) 47gms, 20:44 / Dermott (25) 43gms, 14:43 ---> Muzzin (32) 7gms, 22:11
Holl (30) 69gms, 20:12 ---> Giordano (38) 7gms, 20:07

Liljegren (22) 61gms, 16:24 / Giordano (38) 20gms, 19:12 ---> Holl (30) 5gms, 16:50 / Liljegren 2gms, 19:28
Sandin (21) 51gms, 16:58 / Lyubushkin (27) 31gms, 16:28 ---> Lyubushkin (27) 7gms, 13:55


22-23 Season ---> Playoffs

Rielly (28) 65gms, 21:43 ---> Rielly (28) 11gms, 24:09
Brodie (32) 58gms, 21:13 ---> Brodie (32) 11gms, 23:20

Sandin (22) 57gms, 17:59 / McCabe (29) 21gms, 19:28 ---> McCabe (29) 11gms, 21:00
Holl (31) 80gms, 20:14 ---> Schenn (33) 11gms, 17:27

Giordano (39) 78gms, 18:57 ---> Giordano (39) 11gms, 14:53
Liljegren (23) 67gms, 17:55 / Schenn (33) 15gms, 13:18 ---> Holl (31) 8gms, 19:45 / Liljegren 5gms, 15:16
Gustafsson (30) 9gms, 15:45 ---> Gustafsson (30) 2gms, 10:03


24-25 Season

Rielly (30)
McCabe (31)

Tanev (35)
OEL (33)

Liljegren (25)
Hakanpaa (32)

Benoit (26)
Timmins (26)




​
I guess I'd say that there's a solid chance they're the best unit - as long as anyone doesn't fall too far off their performances from last year (which given some of those ages is unfortunately a decent possibility, but i still won't say it's actually likely that any of them fall off a cliff).

But imo McCabe is giving us what Muzzin gave us - high end two-way impact in big and tough minutes. And Tanev last year was at least as good as peak Brodie, and probably better when including gritty leaderbeans. So in terms of the "Big 3" there we should have at least as good a group as we've had in this era, and possibly better.

The #4 slot also seems to have better options - whether it's OEL in a Holl/Gio type role or Hakanpaa in a Boosh/Schenn role.

Lilly is still a wildcard unfortunately but hopefully he can be regular season Lilly and not playoffs Lilly.

And then of course we all liked Benoit last year even when he was being asked to do too much on a shutdown pair, so I don't think anyone minds if he's in the lineup (though hopefully that would be more at the expense of a Hakanpaa than a Lilly).
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I think it is in terms of on-paper talent, the Leafs have run some pretty terrible players out there lately and OEL (although I'm not a fan) is unquestionably better than them (Benoit, Boosh, Edmundson etc). he's also a better skater, at least at the moment, which is becoming more of an issue in the lineup.

Defensively Tanev is superior I think to peak Brodie or Muzzin. on that side of things he's one of the top, or at least has been. On paper, this is a huge upgrade over last year (no Muzzin, badly diminished Brodie). Not a small one. with this and what should be better goaltending I'm expecting the PK rank to be significantly higher this season as a result.

benoit is ok as a 6.. not sure how much more than that Hakanpaa can give us on 1 leg

Lilly I still think has a decent chance to get moved, why because despite being built like a tank he is not going to be mean enough for Berube. that is one edge that Hakanpaa has over him.
 
xGAR
2020-21: 24.1 (Top 4: 21.3)
Rielly: 6.4
Brodie: 5
Muzzin: 8.1
Holl: 1.8
Dermott: 2.7
Bogo: 0.1

2021-22: 48.7 (Top 4: 24.9)
Rielly: 6.1
Brodie: 11.8
Muzzin: 3.9
Holl: 3.1
Sandin: 12.5
Lilly: 11.3

2023-24: 36.2 (Top 4: 28.1)
Rielly: 2.4
Tanev: 3.4
McCabe: 11.4
OEL: 10.9
Benoit: 1.9
Lilly: 6.2

It is likely pretty comparable. The top 3 is similar, though unfortunately Rielly is probably worse than at his peak.

The big question is can OEL/Lilly be effective in a top 4 roll. If not then they still need another dman.
 
That 21-22 D might be the best on paper with two stud prospects on the third pair, notwithstanding the stud prospects blowing the playoffs and busting.
 
Wayward DP said:
okay that's the bull case. there's a bear case too.

all of our top-4 are over 30, for starters.
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fair. though i don't think 30 is particularly concerning. 34-35....yeah.

Wayward DP said:
none of our current D match what Muzz brought - McCabe can keep up defensively, but has never been close offensively.
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I disagree here tbh. McCabe doesn't have Muzz' hands but his skating makes up for much of that in terrms of offensive impact.

As Leafs

McCabe 94gms, 5v5 17:06toi (+3.2dzs%), 53.6xgf% (+0.9rel), 0.59p1/60, 1.01p/60 --- 4v5 2:04, +0.3xgarel
Muzzin 187gms, 5v5 17:40toi (+2.8dzs%), 54.0xgf% (+0.1rel), 0.63p1/60, 1.16p/60 --- 4v5 2:20, -0.6xgarel

Playoffs

McCabe 18gms, 5v5 18:16toi (+7.6dzs%), 49.7xgf% (+0.0rel), 0.36p1/60, 0.55p/60 --- 4v5 1:35, -27.4xgarel
Muzzin 22gms, 5v5 16:37toi (+3.2dzs%), 46.4xgf% (-5.3rel), 1.15p1/60, 1.31p/60 --- 4v5 2:36, -12.3xgarel

Wayward DP said:
Rielly is older and slower.
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1. meh
2. you're just repeating the age thing again

Wayward DP said:
Tanev may be better than Brodie but I'd be shocked if he played over 70 games for us. and I expect there to be age-related decline, too.
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1. Tanev has played in 94% of his team's games the last 5yrs. only 1 of those years did he play at lower than a 75gm pace (2yrs ago when he played 65).
2. you're just repeating the age thing again

Wayward DP said:
OEL... has had what, one decent season in the last like eight?
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I would describe more as in he looked good again when taken out of frontline role and moved into a depth role, like he'll be here with us.

5v5

19-20: 17:21, +1.1dzs%
20-21: 16:03, +0.8dzs%
21-22: 17:36, +4.5dzs%
22-23: 16:50, +1.6dzs%
23-24: 14:09, -4.7dzs%
 
trujaysfan said:
So Hak will be out a while, so we can assume Benoit will be in and timmins as #7.

If a puck mover goes down and Hak is healthy I worry we see 2 him and Benoit on the 3rd pair and given the "shutdown" assignment.
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I'm a little scared of having both Hak and Benny in there so i don't mind hak being injured tbh!

though Hak if healthy could fill a couple roles and I wouldn't mind - he could be the schenn/boosh with rielly, while we go with a McCabe-Tanev shutdown pair and then what should be a very nice dominating 3rd pairing in OEL-Lilly - or he could fill the benny role with McCabe while Mo-Tanev is the top pair.....or he could just slot in the bottom pairing with OEL.......but that would leave a big risk of leaving Lilly out if Berube doesn't want him to play in the top 4.

Based on Berube's coaching history though I don't think a Benoit-Hakanpaa pairing is in the works. at least I hope. But he seems to have always valued skating in his dcorps.
 
zeke said:
fair. though i don't think 30 is particularly concerning. 34-35....yeah.



I disagree here tbh. McCabe doesn't have Muzz' hands but his skating makes up for much of that in terrms of offensive impact.

As Leafs

McCabe 94gms, 5v5 17:06toi (+3.2dzs%), 53.6xgf% (+0.9rel), 0.59p1/60, 1.01p/60 --- 4v5 2:04, +0.3xgarel
Muzzin 187gms, 5v5 17:40toi (+2.8dzs%), 54.0xgf% (+0.1rel), 0.63p1/60, 1.16p/60 --- 4v5 2:20, -0.6xgarel

Playoffs

McCabe 18gms, 5v5 18:16toi (+7.6dzs%), 49.7xgf% (+0.0rel), 0.36p1/60, 0.55p/60 --- 4v5 1:35, -27.4xgarel
Muzzin 22gms, 5v5 16:37toi (+3.2dzs%), 46.4xgf% (-5.3rel), 1.15p1/60, 1.31p/60 --- 4v5 2:36, -12.3xgarel



1. meh
2. you're just repeating the age thing again



1. Tanev has played in 94% of his team's games the last 5yrs. only 1 of those years did he play at lower than a 75gm pace (2yrs ago when he played 65).
2. you're just repeating the age thing again



I would describe more as in he looked good again when taken out of frontline role and moved into a depth role, like he'll be here with us.

5v5

19-20: 17:21, +1.1dzs%
20-21: 16:03, +0.8dzs%
21-22: 17:36, +4.5dzs%
22-23: 16:50, +1.6dzs%
23-24: 14:09, -4.7dzs%
Click to expand...
that makes me feel a bit better about Muzz/McCabe.

the age-related concerns are gonna hang over this d-corps all season, and next year.

OEL's only decent season in the last five is when he was heavily sheltered, and we need one of him or Timmy to handle top-4 duties (although it may be on a pair with Mo that is sheltered).

I know Tanev has been healthy recently, but I expect Leaf luck to hit him soon, hard, and often. which is part of why I was against signing a 34-year old D with a long injury history.

like, we were all complaining last year that we didn't take steps to quickly enough deal with our ageing d-corps (eg. Brodie's decline, failure to replace Muzz before he broke). and the solution appears to be...doubling down on a 30+ year old top-4.

and the most upsetting part is that Lilly and Sandin were bottom pair prospects in 21-22. three years later, we still don't know whether Lilly can hack it in a top-4 role...
 
leafman101 said:
That 21-22 D might be the best on paper with two stud prospects on the third pair, notwithstanding the stud prospects blowing the playoffs and busting.
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they didn't even get the chance to blow the playoffs and bust that year.

they were replaced by Gio and Boosh.

Lilly played 2gms.

Sandin plays 0gms (was that the year he was injured?).
 
leafman101 said:
The big question is can OEL/Lilly be effective in a top 4 roll. If not then they still need another dman.
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With a legit top-3 again (knock on wood) there's a nice cushion there - the #4 D just has to be a good fit as the support role on a 2nd pairing, and nothing more than that.

That's a role that's easier to fill than being a legit "top-4" type dman.

Even Benny as the support guy on the 2nd pair last year would have been fine if Brodie hadn't tanked the top pairing and left it all a mess.

McCabe - Tanev
Rielly - Hakanpaa

Rielly - Tanev
McCabe - Lilly/Hakanpaa

Rielly - Tanev
OEL/Benoit - McCabe

Depending on how they actually fit on the ice there's lots of options to finish off that top-4....and any of those would also leave a strong bottom pairing i think.

Of course if OEL decides to re-enact his excellent top-pair calibre performance from the first 2 months last year when Montour and Ekblad were injured, or if Lilly wants to finally take a step up in consistency, either of which would give us a legit 4th top-4 dman, that would be great.
 
leafman101 said:
That 21-22 D might be the best on paper with two stud prospects on the third pair, notwithstanding the stud prospects blowing the playoffs and busting.
Click to expand...

I also think that season showed the extra benefit of having 2 top-4 pairings that really complemented each other and could be trusted in top usage (Brodie really worked well with Mo and Holl/Muzz always had good chemistry).....because Sandin-Liljegren were able to be completely sheltered that year and that was probably why their stats looked so great.
 
just to refresh my memory and to see whether the team results correlated with those best "on paper" dcorps....

Pre-"Good" Dcorps...

18-19: #11 xgf%, #3xgf, #25xga
19-20: #11 xgf%, #4xgf, #18xga

"Good" Dcorps

20-21: #2 xgf%, #4xgf, #10xga
21-22: #3 xgf%, #3xgf, #4xga
22-23: #5 xgf%, #6xgf, #12xga <--- no muzzin, mccabe added at deadline
23-24: #9 xgf%, #6xgf, #16xga <--- Brodie falls off cliff


so yeah the team numbers do actually line up pretty perfectly with the quality of that dcorps on paper. with the 21-22 team being the real standout defensively. so that's cool.

And again, that 21-22 dcorps was:

Rielly (27) - Brodie (31)
Muzzin (32) - Holl (30)
Sandin (21) - Liljegren (22)

But then after the deadline:

Muzzin (32) - Brodie (31)
Rielly (27) - Schenn (33)
Giordano (38) - Holl (30) / Lilly (22)

so matching that D head to head:

Rielly (27) --- Rielly (30)
Muzzin (32) --- McCabe (31)
Brodie (31) --- Tanev (35)

Sandin (22)/Giordano (38) --- OEL (33)
Holl (30)/Schenn (33) --- Hakanpaa (32)/Benoit (26)
Liljegren (22) --- Liljegren (25)

​
 
Panthers: 47 xGAR (Top 4: 33.9)
Forsling: 17.8
OEL: 10.9
Montour: 8.5
Mikkola: 4.8
Ekblad: 2.8
Kulkov: 2.2		Vegas: 28 (Top 4: 28.7)
Pietrangalo: 15
Theodore: 8.4
McNabb: 4.8
Martinez: 0.5
Hague: -0.2
Whitecloud: -0.5		Avs: 58.4 (Top 4: 60.2)
Makar: 35.8
Toews: 20.6
Johnson: 5
Byram: 3.2
Manson: 0.6
JJohnson: -6.8		Tampa #2 22 (Top 4: 21.6)
Cernak: 7.8
Hedman: 5.6
McDonagh: 4.8
Schenn: 3.4
Savard: 0.2
Sergachev: 0.2		Tampa #2 39.3 (Top 4: 27.9)
Hedman: 16.4
Shattinkirk: 10.9
Sergachev: 8
Cernak: 4.3
Bogosian: 0.5
McDonagh: -0.8		Average: 38.9 (Top 4: 34.5)

Leafs: 36.2 (Top 4: 28.1)
McCabe: 11.4
OEL: 10.9
Lilly: 6.2
Rielly: 2.4
Tanev: 3.4
Benoit: 1.9


1726610758761.png
Elite (2.6); Rielly 2.4
1D (1.7): McCabe 1.5
Top Pair (1.4): Tanev 0.8
Top Pair (1.2): OEL 1.6
Other: Lilly 2.7
Hakanpaa -0.7


By the two best public models, the D looks close to enough. Still missing that legit stud, but the depth is pretty good and there are no dead weights.
 
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