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KK Signs Offer Sheet From Canes/Habs Don't Match

I did do a double take when the KK signing popped on my phone yesterday. Looking at the details of the offer sheet shows it is part troll job by Carolina but if the report of them trying to trade for KK before they tendering the offer sheet, Carolina may have real interest in added KK to their team. Adding KK at that salary will likely cause contract issues with Necas next summer, who will be a RFA and has put up better numbers so far than KK. Doubt he will take less than KK. As for Montreal, KK’s new salary will eat into the cap room created by LTIRing certain players, which will limit the moves they can make during this season. Next summer, they have to qualify KK very close to his new 6.1 million salary and sign RFA Nick Suzuki, who you know won’t take a cent less than what KK is now making. I don’t blame KK for betting on himself and signing an offer sheet for apparently 3 times what the Habs were willing to offer, even if it means his time with the Habs is at an end. Bergevin may have to just to deal with the criticism and second guessing and just take the picks and focus on getting Suzuki signed before he becomes a RFA. As for KK, signing this deal puts the pressure clearly on himself to produce, whatever team he plays for. I like KK, I think he has more to give plus he doesn’t seem to have the off ice issues Galchenyuk had, but I think Bergevin may take this personally and won’t match the offer.
 
Thinking this offer sheet permanently sets a $6.1 million AAV salaryfloor for KK for the rest of his RFA years isn't considering contract extensions and club elected arbitration. You guys are not at all thinking outside the box. The $6.1 million 1 year overpay make it less likely the Habs match. That doesn't necessarily lock KK's salary floor at that level past next season.

You are assuming nothing but 1 year QOs after this season. Who is to say the Canes (or Habs) don't' give KK a 6 year $28 million extension after Jan 1? Or take him to club elected arbitration after this next season?

I think some people are looking at the possibilities here with a bit of bitter tunnel vision and not considering different options for the Habs or Canes after this single season.
 
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cmaleski2 said:
Thinking this offer sheet permanently sets a $6.1 million AAV salaryfloor for KK for the rest of his RFA years isn't considering contract extensions and club elected arbitration. You guys are not at all thinking outside the box. The $6.1 million 1 year overpay make it less likely the Habs match. That doesn't necessarily lock KK's salary floor at that level past next season.
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The Canes have set his value at $6.1m based on his 7g 29p pace from last year. If he meets or exceeds that in any way this year, good luck convincing an independent arbitrator that he's now worth less.
 
Plus, Necas was ALWAYS going to get more than $6.1 million AAV on his next deal anyway. This wouldn't impact the other in any way other than available Cap space. And the Canes only have something like $56 million committed for 22-23.
 
Habspatrol said:
The Canes have set his value at $6.1m based on his 7g 29p pace from last year. If he meets or exceeds that in any way this year, good luck convincing an independent arbitrator that he's now worth less.
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So if KK plays well this coming season the Canes will regret it? I think that is quite a stretch.

The Canes are not at all really valuing KK at $6.1 million. $6.1 million is what the Canes think will be high enough that the Habs might not match. This is offer sheet 101, something Bergevin could use a a lesson on apparently. You overpay on offer sheets if you really want the player, otherwise the other team just matches.

The Canes ability to sign Necas is not at all imperiled by this KK offer sheet. That again is just wishful salty bitterness in thinking. Sorry Habs fans, the Canes can EASILY retain Necas even with KK at $6 million.
 
cmaleski2 said:
Thinking this offer sheet permanently sets a $6.1 million AAV salaryfloor for KK for the rest of his RFA years isn't considering contract extensions and club elected arbitration. You guys are not at all thinking outside the box. The $6.1 million 1 year overpay make it less likely the Habs match. That doesn't necessarily lock KK's salary floor at that level past next season.

You are assuming nothing but 1 year QOs after this season. Who is to say the Canes (or Habs) don't' give KK a 6 year $28 million extension after Jan 1? Or take him to club elected arbitration after this next season?

I think some people are looking at the possibilities here with a bit of bitter tunnel vision and not considering different options for the Habs or Canes after this single season.
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There's nothing bitter and there's no tunnel vision, at least on my end.

Kotkaniemi is what he is, an ok player who plays center (on the Habs).

If Kotkaniemi figures it out one day, he could be a pretty good player and giving him a long-term extension would be a lot more feasible. And you would have won your bet. However, history has shown that he isn't a goal scorer despite everyone going about how great his shot is and he's never put up significant point totals for anything other than short stretches.

But if he stays as is? A 10ish goal 30ish point center (who won't play center for you) who isn't blessed with great hockey IQ? And you want to give him a 6 years $28M type of extension? Good on you if you do, I'm not interested at all.

Prior to this offersheet, the speculation was that he'd get a $1.5M to $2M deal for one, maybe two years. He literally got 3-4x more than what the expectation was.

I don't think for a second the Canes won't re-sign Necas, let alone not match an offersheet. All they have to do is extend him tomorrow.
 
cmaleski2 said:
Thinking this offer sheet permanently sets a $6.1 million AAV salaryfloor for KK for the rest of his RFA years isn't considering contract extensions and club elected arbitration. You guys are not at all thinking outside the box. The $6.1 million 1 year overpay make it less likely the Habs match. That doesn't necessarily lock KK's salary floor at that level past next season.

You are assuming nothing but 1 year QOs after this season. Who is to say the Canes (or Habs) don't' give KK a 6 year $28 million extension after Jan 1? Or take him to club elected arbitration after this next season?

I think some people are looking at the possibilities here with a bit of bitter tunnel vision and not considering different options for the Habs or Canes after this single season.
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I can't see a team locking him up for 6/28 unless he has a breakout year. Is he going to get a ton of playing time in Carolina? More than in MTL? Carolina has some better youngsters and KK will have to play the wing. Most likely scenario is he becomes a UFA because Carolina will need to sign Necas and not give him a QO. They will try to lowball a long term deal and KK will probably sign a short term deal somewhere else where he can prove himself and get more ice time before signing long term. I was just assuming, that hopefully MB is going to not match the offer sheet.
 
xposbrad said:
I can't see a team locking him up for 6/28 unless he has a breakout year. Is he going to get a ton of playing time in Carolina? More than in MTL? Carolina has some better youngsters and KK will have to play the wing. Most likely scenario is he becomes a UFA because Carolina will need to sign Necas and not give him a QO. They will try to lowball a long term deal and KK will probably sign a short term deal somewhere else where he can prove himself and get more ice time before signing long term.
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If he has a breakout year, change the twenty-eight for a forty-eight and that'll be a better ballpark number.
 
I'm not saying its not a risk. But a $4 million offer sheet doesn't give the canes ANY chance of getting KK. That number HAS to be high enough to make the Habs consider not matching.

Sure KK might end up a 20 to 30 point nothing player. The Canes could certainly lose that bet. But they are not even in the game without that offer sheet amount being higher than the player's obvious short term value. That seems to be lost on some people. Again, Trocheck is a UFA after this next season and Jordan Staal is a 34 year old UFA after the 22-23 season. This is not just some game to the Canes, they really think KK is worth this risk. If the Habs don't think he is, this should be easy enough for the Habs to walk away from.
 
xposbrad said:
I can't see a team locking him up for 6/28 unless he has a breakout year. Is he going to get a ton of playing time in Carolina? More than in MTL? Carolina has some better youngsters and KK will have to play the wing. Most likely scenario is he becomes a UFA because Carolina will need to sign Necas and not give him a QO. They will try to lowball a long term deal and KK will probably sign a short term deal somewhere else where he can prove himself and get more ice time before signing long term. I was just assuming, that hopefully MB is going to not match the offer sheet.
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There's a LW slot open in Carolina's top 9 ... which could be on the first line, since Brind'Amour isn't all that big a fan of playing Svechnikov with Aho and Teravainen. Bottom line, there's ample opportunity for the kid to earn meaningful ice time. At worst, he's on the third line
GGpX said:
For what it's worth, I don't think I'd match a $4M offersheet for him either.
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I'd have been a lot happier with a $4-something million offer, as a Canes fan but if you're serious about actually getting the player on an offer sheet play ... you have to over-pay.
 
cmaleski2 said:
So if KK plays well this coming season the Canes will regret it? I think that is quite a stretch.

The Canes are not at all really valuing KK at $6.1 million. $6.1 million is what the Canes think will be high enough that the Habs might not match. This is offer sheet 101, something Bergevin could use a a lesson on apparently. You overpay on offer sheets if you really want the player, otherwise the other team just matches.

The Canes ability to sign Necas is not at all imperiled by this KK offer sheet. That again is just wishful salty bitterness in thinking. Sorry Habs fans, the Canes can EASILY retain Necas even with KK at $6 million.
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There's a wide gap between a slight improvement on last year and being worth $6.1m. I was commenting on the likelihood of his salary going down.

By no means do I think that the Aho offersheet was "good." There was zero chance that the Canes wouldn't match. We all knew it at the time. The only hope any of us had was if the owner wasn't willing to buck up... but that seemed like a very unlikely scenario. It was way too fair of a contract. But if the Canes didn't match, it was very beneficial to the Habs. If not... no harm no foul.

MB's intention wasn't so much to screw the Canes, but rather a hailmary to improve his team. I just think this is a dumb move for Carolina. Give up a 1st and 3rd to pay KK considerably more than he's worth.

If the purpose of offersheeting is to troll the other team regardless of how it affects your team, then yep... Waddell definitely could give Bergevin some lessons.
 
cmaleski2 said:
I'm not saying its not a risk. But a $4 million offer sheet doesn't give the canes ANY chance of getting KK. That number HAS to be high enough to make the Habs consider not matching.

Sure KK might end up a 20 to 30 point nothing player. The Canes could certainly lose that bet. But they are not even in the game without that offer sheet amount being higher than the player's obvious short term value. That seems to be lost on some people. Again, Trocheck is a UFA after this next season and Jordan Staal is a 34 year old UFA after the 22-23 season. This is not just some game to the Canes, they really think KK is worth this risk.
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He is young but I still think he's not that great defensively due to his awkward skating. He's not really a PP player, and the risk was fine for Carolina. Montreal fans are very aware that this is a semi tough decision because we don't want to lose a 3rd overall for a mid-late 1st. I doubt they offer him if Montreal didn't offer Aho. KK is in the driver's seat no matter what, Carolina just set the bar for a 25-30pt player at 6m :) Also, does it hurt negotiations with other players when they use it as a comparable? I don't know, but I am good with the 1st/3rd and a year of tanking!
 
Hindsight being 20/20, had the Habs actually done one of those nuclear option, 7 years $11M annually with 90% of the contract in signing bonus deals for Aho, the deal would actually have been not bad seeing as how he's improved since then. Maybe the Canes would have thought about it, but I think the crux of the reasoning for the offer sheet was the belief that the owner wouldn't be willing to write big checks for Aho once a year.

Oh well, you live and you learn.
 
Man... $4m would have only been a 2nd round pick compensation. I would have matched that. However $4,110,733 would have still been a 1st and 3rd and I'd have definitely had a harder time accepting.
 
Habspatrol said:
Man... $4m would have only been a 2nd round pick compensation. I would have matched that. However $4,110,733 would have still been a 1st and 3rd and I'd have definitely had a harder time accepting.
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Why? Do you really value that 1st round pick that much?
 
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