Trudeau’s calculus is how does this play out if he steps in now, either to negotiate or with some show of force.
If it’s force, then that’s it. There’s no stepping back from that. Either he has used the Canadian military to beat back an unlawful, foreign-financed insurrection, or he has turned the military against its own people. Despite what a shitshow this is, it’s probably not at that point yet. One major truck explosion in downtown Ottawa and the calculus changes.
If he chooses negotiations, then what is the end game? This protestors group is a very messy and unorganized group of actual truckers, frustrated Canadians, white supremicists, anarchists, and foreign-influenced agitators. Who are you dealing with, exactly? If they could negotiate a settlement with actual truckers, I’m sure they would have by now. But the self-proclaimed organizers are calling for an end democratic governance. You can’t negotiate with that.