man, the more I reflect, the more I agree with you ME that JT is the 'original sin' as you put it.
I legitimately believe it
- We saw a 7.5 million dollar centre walk in and take his job last year during what was a down season for him. ROR looked much better in the middle of the ice than Tavares during his time here. Wasn't that close tbh. I'm pretty convinced that we could have relatively easily found a 2C that offered JT's 5v5 impacts for half the money. Or just suck it up and kept Kadri despite him being a psycho (which in retrospect appears more like a feature than a drawback). We would have needed a PP net front guy, but I'm pretty confident that the PP would have been fine without it's 4th best forward.
- It definitely changed the internal math for contract re-ups. It became impossible to not pay Matthews more than Tavares. JT came in and had a career season:
.57gpg
1.07ppg
Great year for JT. Matthews at 21 put up .54gpg and 1.07ppg. When there were two market comparbales at the time (Jack Eichel at 10.0 and Connor at 12.5) and their PPG stacked up like this
McDavid: 1.49
Matthews: 1.07
Eichel: 1.06
It seems like you'd have a pretty good argument to go closer to the Eichel contract (plus cap% increase) rather than end up in between, but internal cap is a thing that has been used on both sides of contract negotiations and once Tavares set our internal market at 11, Matthews was getting more than that, the question was how much. Mitch using Auston as a comparable has been talked about a lot in Toronto, but Auston definitely used Tavares.
Tavares 2 & 3 yrs GPG/PPG before signing in Toronto:
2 yrs: .41gpg/.94ppg
3 yrs: .41gpg/.93ppg
Matthews:
2 yrs: .55gpg/1.05ppg
3yrs: .53gpg/.97ppg
Seriously, how do you go into negotiations with a 21 yr old guy who in his first 3 seasons was better than the 11 million dollar "superstar" you just signed and even hope to leave the room spending less money on him than you gave the other guy? Not happening.
That imo set the stage for Mitch to point at Auston's number (with Mitch conveniently coming off of a 94 point season assisting in JT's career year) and end up getting a higher cap% than Patrick Kane got coming off of a Conn Smythe at similar age.
The knock on effects probably created 5-6 million in total cap spend that could have been redirected elsewhere without a decline in roster quality.