• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

It's such a silly discussion

First Assists/60 5v5, 2021-2023

Panarin: 1.07
Kucherov: 1.06
Huberdeau: 1.03
Connor McDavid: 1.0
Marchand: .98
Barzel: .94
Auston fucking Matthews: .90

The difference between Connor McJesus and Auston Matthews in primary assists per 60 minutes of icetime is point fucking 1 assist per 60 minutes played (roughly 4 games). Roughly an extra primary assist per 40 games played. Matthews of course scores .42 goals per 60 more than McDavid, so in the same amount of games it takes McDavid to collect one additional primary assist, Matthews has scored 4 more goals than Connor has.

You know who has feasted in primary assists the previous 2 seasons?

Marner: 1.36
Michael Bunting: 1.03

Weird, eh? It's almost like the best way to rack up assists is to play with a monster goal scorer or something.
 
Preston said:
Regular season P/60 since 2020-2021: 2.98
Playoff P/60 since 2020-2021: 1.92

Let's fix that. He has played some good teams in the playoffs so I'm not even asking for 2.98 but lets do better there.

In that same time period in the playoffs McDavid is 3.17, Drai is 3.42. And this is all 5 on 5; we already know his PP numbers don't compare. So let's get better there folks.
Click to expand...

Over the last 2 playoff "runs" Matthews is at 2.34. 14th among players with 200 or more minutes played.

Which is still not Auston Matthews level but it's not bad either.
 
MindzEye said:
Over the last 2 playoff "runs" Matthews is at 2.34. 14th among players with 200 or more minutes played.

Which is still not Auston Matthews level but it's not bad either.
Click to expand...
Considering who they've played against it's quite good. I'd like to see him get in the 2.5-2.75+ range. He is so far away the best even strength scorer in the league in the season so anything more than a slight downtick from the season ain't good enough. He's been getting better though for sure.
 
Preston said:
Regular season P/60 since 2020-2021: 2.98
Playoff P/60 since 2020-2021: 1.92

Let's fix that. He has played some good teams in the playoffs so I'm not even asking for 2.98 but lets do better there.

In that same time period in the playoffs McDavid is 3.17, Drai is 3.42. And this is all 5 on 5; we already know his PP numbers don't compare. So let's get better there folks.
Click to expand...
Let's add PP

Regular season PPP/60 since 2020-2021: 6.34
Playoffs PPP/60 since 2020-2021: 4.7

That's just ugly. Leafs PP cratering in the playoffs has sure felt like an annual tradition.
 
McDavid gets around 25% more PP ice time per year than Matthews and is nearly 2x more productive than him in those minutes. AND he's pretty close to Auston-level production at evens. He has to be #1! #2 is a tougher debate.. Kuch is a PP merchant but a damn good one. And Nate Mack is excellent. I'd probably have it:

1. McDavid
2. Nate Mack
3. Matthews
4. Kucherov
 
Preston said:
McDavid gets around 25% more PP ice time per year than Matthews and is nearly 2x more productive than him in those minutes. AND he's pretty close to Auston-level production at evens. He has to be #1! #2 is a tougher debate.. Kuch is a PP merchant but a damn good one. And Nate Mack is excellent. I'd probably have it:

1. McDavid
2. Nate Mack
3. Matthews
4. Kucherov
Click to expand...

If we just look at this season:

Primary Points/60 - 5v5

Auston: 2.53
Nate: 2.41
Connor: 2.23
Kuch: 2.16

PP Primary/60 (PP G/60)

Kuch: 7.85 (3.28)
McDavid: 7.00 (2.06)
Matthews: 5.13 (3.95)
Nate: 4.66 (1.81)

Secondary assists are a thing, they get counted as a point. But they're way more important when assessing a defenceman's offensive ability (where breaking the zone with speed and finding a forward in open ice is definitely a skill) than it is when assessing a forwards, especially on a PP.

I've seen some point weighting systems over the years that attempted to more accurately relay the importance of the 3 types of points and they all seemed to fall roughly into this range

G = 1 point
1A = .5-.6 point
2A = .2 points

That doesn't add up to 2 obviously, because on average 1.7 points are awarded per goal scored.

If we used something like that for weighting the PP production above:

Weighted PP P/60:

Kucherov: 6.62
McDavid: 5.41
Matthews: 4.9
Nate: 4.24
 
MindzEye said:
He performed at a 52 & 50 assist pace the previous 2 seasons. That would put him in the top ~30 in the league both years.

On top of being a generational goal scorer and a territorial monster who literally does everything (transition, faceoffs, takeaways, shot blocking, etc, etc, etc) at a high level.

I want him shooting the fucking puck every opportunity he can, not passing up shots to try to get Marner & Knies a few more tap ins a year.
Click to expand...

yeah the assists are low this year but Matthews is a great passer. Just don't expect a third liner like Knies to make the most of it. Or pre-surgery Hyman. Or Bunting, who is a low 20s scorer.

as Preston said I think the greatest concern for me is Matthews turning into a 35 goal 70 point player in the playoffs. That is where he really falls off when compared to the elite like Mackinnon, Kucherov, or McDavid. The extra gear has not been there for when the intensity gets turned up.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
He’s a really skilled and creative playmaker. Everyone gets dazzled by the legendary goal scoring, so this gets overlooked. If he tried to set up some plays a bit more, it may open things up more, lead to better chances for everyone, and likely even more goals for himself.
Click to expand...

You're thinking the guy on pace to be a top 3 goal scorer all time could score more goals if he passed more?
 
Also, while I have the tabs open, to revisit the P/60 numbers

Weighted 5v5 P/60 (not just primary)

Matthews: 2.26
Nate: 2.19
Kuch: 1.90
Connor: 1.89
 
Volcanologist said:
yeah the assists are low this year but Matthews is a great passer. Just don't expect a third liner like Knies to make the most of it. Or pre-surgery Hyman. Or Bunting, who is a low 20s scorer.

as Preston said I think the greatest concern for me is Matthews turning into a 35 goal 70 point player in the playoffs. That is where he really falls off when compared to the elite like Mackinnon, Kucherov, or McDavid. The extra gear has not been there for when the intensity gets turned up.
Click to expand...

The assists are low, but it's almost entirely secondary apples:

.76 primary assists per 60 isn't far off of Nate, & Kuch in the .95 range. Connor up at 1.2 is Connor being Connor with it.

Secondary assists though?

Matthews: .17
Nate: .8
Connor: .69
Kuch: .67

I'd shoot the puck more too if that's what was happening when I give it up.
 
giphy.gif
 
Preston said:
I'm pretty sure the only thing that really sets a guy like McDavid or even Mackinnon or Kucherov apart from Matthews in the past few years are their:

1. PP ice time (other teams get more PPs)
2. PP production. Matthews is a good amount behind them in PP points per 60.

But in even strength p/60? It's Nate Mack, Marner and Matthews in the top 3 over the last 3 years. Then McDavid, and then... large gap. And if we do P1/60, Matthews is far ahead of everyone. So yeah, I wouldn't change much. He's obviously not the best PP guy tho and the Leafs don't get PPs to begin with so that's gonna prevent him from putting up McDavid seasons
Click to expand...
Yeah if Matthew and Marner were pp merchants like the others they’d be 110-120 pt guys. They are crazy good.

Also says something about whatever we’re doing on the pp that the two most prolific 5on5 scorers can’t keep pace with a man up.
 
especially now that Matthews has fixed his only previous weakness as a scorer - his one-timer.

he's been really working on it the past couple years, especially last year, but it wasn't great. But this year it's become deadly, whether he's hammering it or chipping it. I think he was annoyed seeing Drai get all those gimme one timers on the PP so he decided to best him there too.
 
it's likely also due in part to wrist issues he's had. it's made him score goals every which way instead of the go-to wrist/snapper he relied on in past seasons.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top