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No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

Wayward DP said:
this is odd...
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I just kinda feel like they’re going to pull a uno reverse card on us. Nerds hate the team, our GM didn’t mortgage the future for multiple high-end pieces at the deadline, our goaltending & defense is suspect, our coach sucks…

…and yet I still feel like everything’s going to come up Milhouse for us this time around, at least relative to previous playoff performances.

Time will tell.
 
LeafGm said:
I just kinda feel like they’re going to pull a uno reverse card on us. Nerds hate the team, our GM didn’t mortgage the future for multiple high-end pieces at the deadline, our goaltending & defense is suspect, our coach sucks…

…and yet I still feel like everything’s going to come up Milhouse for us this time around, at least relative to previous playoff performances.

Time will tell.
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This is the way
 
CH1 said:
It's also about who makes it on these tv/radio panels -- mostly a much of ex coaches, Keefer type, low talent players who are suspicious of any high end talent that doesn't drop their mitts or use their elbows as weapons....so it's a chorus of "goaltending" and "they are built for playoff" analysis
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To a hammer, all problems look like nails.

And these guys definitely share multiple cognitive similarities to a bag of hammers.
 
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LeafGm said:
I just kinda feel like they’re going to pull a uno reverse card on us. Nerds hate the team, our GM didn’t mortgage the future for multiple high-end pieces at the deadline, our goaltending & defense is suspect, our coach sucks…

…and yet I still feel like everything’s going to come up Milhouse for us this time around, at least relative to previous playoff performances.

Time will tell.
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they'll be facing a top defensive team in hockey to start, but they've got a puncher's chance having Matthews/Marner who have the talent to dominate a series. Barkov might have a wonky back again, too, apparently..
 
LeafGm said:
Oddly enough, I’m not the least bit worried about the playoffs. I’m still very much a member of #TeamZen.

I’m also strangely hopeful about our chances.
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Playoffs are random. So yes, we can have our best run yet. But that D yeesh. I feel about it right now as most felt the past few years when we heard how bad they were.
 
Here's how this year's playoffs lineup stacks up against last year's using current Net Ratings:

Screenshot 2024-04-16 122456.png​
 
Preston said:
Goaltending, coaching, special teams, and no more prime Brodie or Muzzin. It's a lot to overcome. Anyone who is truly optimistic is lying to themselves.

Team zen though. Playoffs will still be a blast. Can't let the pessimism ruin our enjoyment.
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It’s just the coaching.

On paper, this roster should beat any prior Leafs roster of the past 8 years.

If coaching iced the best players and management didn’t have the same brain damage about adding bottom rung junk to “help” us, we’d be golden.
 
yeah those are current year numbers not last year's. maybe we think some of those players drastically changed skill level over that time i dunno.

but goalies don't have net ratings actually that's just my calculation of his stats over the last 2yrs.

But sammy was .898 in the playoffs last year anyways.
 
For me my pessimism is as much about the path they have to take to get to the finals as it is about not having a muzzin, ice cold special teams, a sabotaging coach, PTSD from past years and suspect goaltending. They have to be a nearly perfect juggernaut to win their first two rounds against these teams and I haven't seen that sort of consistency with this group... Ever. And I wouldn't be optimistic if I were Boston Tampa or Florida either. It's a rough path with the odds stacked against every one of those teams.
 
The calculations of Net Rating have changed over the last year but here's what Dom had for them in the two playoffs series previews last year:


Matthews +25 / +25
Marner +19 / +19
Bunting +3 / +2

Tavares +12 / +11
Nylander +10 / +8
Jarnkrok -1 / -2

O'Reilly +2 / +4
Kerfoot -3 / -3
Acciari -5 / -4

Kampf -7 / -7
Lafferty -9 / ??
ZAR -10 / -10

Knies ?? / +0


Rielly +7 / +8
Schenn ?? / -2

McCabe +6 / +6
Brodie +5 / +5

Giordano +4 / +4
Holl +1 / ??

Liljegren +3 / +2


Samsonov +7 / +7
 
I believe Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi are difference-makers. I also have a "Feeling' (Yes, one of those), that Matthews will go crazy 1st round.
 
zeke said:
yeah those are current year numbers not last year's. maybe we think some of those players drastically changed skill level over that time i dunno.

but goalies don't have net ratings actually that's just my calculation of his stats over the last 2yrs.

But sammy was .898 in the playoffs last year anyways.
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ok I see

and ya not saying Sammy was great last year or anything. he sucks and won't be back here next season. but we had a better defensive team before. last offseason it was always gonna be can they get more offence without taking away too much defence. Looks like the answer is no.

as for changed skill level...Brodie is the big one there I think. JT to a lesser extent. Neither is as good as they were 1 or 2 seasons ago.
 
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