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No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

leafman101 said:
Well ROR has been much better this year than he was last year. So the difference is probably bigger.
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he's been pretty similar this year to what he was for the leafs last year i think. His current net rating is probably a better indicator of what he was for us than last year's numbers that was based on his super depressed STL production. I don't mind that last year's team benefits from his higher rating this year.

Of course, Schenn and Holl are rated much lower this year than they were for us last year. I guess we could argue which number is more appropriate for them. I'd consider the fact that Eddy and Boosh have seen their net ratings improve significantly in their short time with the leafs so far too.
 
Volcanologist said:
ok I see

and ya not saying Sammy was great last year or anything. he sucks and won't be back here next season. but we had a better defensive team before. last offseason it was always gonna be can they get more offence without taking away too much defence. Looks like the answer is no.

as for changed skill level...Brodie is the big one there I think. JT to a lesser extent. Neither is as good as they were 1 or 2 seasons ago.
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Brodie kinda fell apart in the playoffs last year tho. That's the only thing.

A big thing is whether McCabe, who's been very good top-3 calibre in the regular season for us, completely implodes in the playoffs again like he did last year.

also, Gio-Holl for some reason became legit unplayable in the playoffs last year. Holl's cratering Net Rating this year seems to make sense based on that.

but the main improvement this year is that it kinda looks like we're finally seeing the younger internal options playing instead of old busted vets. If Keefe plays all of Knies McMann Liljegren Holmberg Robertson.....that's a whole lotta vet dreck replaces by average to very good young players.
 
I think the key matchup is Florida's powerplay vs the Leafs PK which is their weakest spot as a team.

complicating this is the Leafs current "tough" kick...there's gonna be more scuffles this time, they're going to spend more time in the box, and that's not going to help

special teams have determined many a series and this one probably won't be an exception.
 
this is how it looks comparing to last year's round 1 Net Ratings:

Screenshot 2024-04-16 125505.png​

So last year's team is still well behind, but they get a boost from Schenn/Brodie/Gio/Holl having better numbers last year.

But, again, aside from Schenn, those guys all stunk something awful in the playoffs so I'm not sure last year's net rating told the tale.
 
LeafGm said:
I just kinda feel like they’re going to pull a uno reverse card on us. Nerds hate the team, our GM didn’t mortgage the future for multiple high-end pieces at the deadline, our goaltending & defense is suspect, our coach sucks…

…and yet I still feel like everything’s going to come up Milhouse for us this time around, at least relative to previous playoff performances.

Time will tell.
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well don't let me rain on your parade. hope you're right.
 
Florida seems to likely be going with a stacked top two lines approach for the playoffs, with Barkov/Reinhart and Tkachuk/Verhaeghe, even though they had been using a more spread out attack a little while ago with reinhart on the 3rd line.

Leafs are also stacking their top 2 lines tonight, but that's due to injury i think. But it should make for a good matchup. Florida also ices a terrible 4th line so we should be fine there. Our 3rd line might have trouble with Gregor on it tho.

Florida is missing Ekblad and OEL tonight. Not sure if either will be ready to go in game 1. Even if Ekblad is ready to go he may not be actually healthy.
 
They don't want to give any one player all the trophies. Much like how they liked to sprinkle a few veteran winners in for the Norris during the Bourque and Lidstrom eras.
 
Here is Hockey Reference' Top 10 in "point share", IMO the truest meaning of most valuable to their team's success:

1713292835818.png

... a case could also be made for Connor Hellebuyck.
 
Screenshot-2024-04-15-at-3.24.27%E2%80%AFPM.png
 
personally i don't think wingers should ever be in selke contention. especially if they're playing with elite defensive Cs.

Screenshot-2024-04-15-at-3.29.05%E2%80%AFPM.png
 
Mack is kind of a sensation himself, and 30 extra points is not nothing. I wouldn't cry if he beats Matty for the Hart. There's a case to be made, but they're close.

No way should anyone other than Matty win the Selke though. I say that with the feeling that if you're scoring 70 goals while being one of the elite defensive forwards, and a C, that's a shitload harder to pull off than just being best defensively. I've never seen any forward be so good at offense and yet so incredible at defense as Matty. He's from another planet.
 
LeafGm said:
I just kinda feel like they’re going to pull a uno reverse card on us. Nerds hate the team, our GM didn’t mortgage the future for multiple high-end pieces at the deadline, our goaltending & defense is suspect, our coach sucks…

…and yet I still feel like everything’s going to come up Milhouse for us this time around, at least relative to previous playoff performances.

Time will tell.
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I hope you're right.

I wouldn't bet five bucks on it though.
 
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