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No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

zeke said:
in general tho I'm getting a bit annoyed with Reaves playing over Patches.
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The only part of this that bothers me is how regularly Reaves is getting into the lineup. Could not care less about Pacioretty getting back in, though.

He’ll either be miscast on the 4th line, or barring injuries, he’ll be taking away minutes and opportunity I’d rather see go to McMann, Knies & Robertson. Even moreso when Jarnkrok is healthy again.
 
LeafGm said:
The only part of this that bothers me is how regularly Reaves is getting into the lineup. Could not care less about Pacioretty getting back in, though.

He’ll either be miscast on the 4th line, or barring injuries, he’ll be taking away minutes and opportunity I’d rather see go to McMann, Knies & Robertson. Even moreso when Jarnkrok is healthy again.
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I'd be encouraged if he could get used to the idea of holmberg as an important part of the 4th line.

This would ensure mcmann/knies/robertson stay in the top 9 and leaves a spot for patches/krok to fight over.
 
zeke said:
I'd be encouraged if he could get used to the idea of holmberg as an important part of the 4th line.

This would ensure mcmann/knies/robertson stay in the top 9 and leaves a spot for patches/krok to fight over.
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Yeah, I’d be OK with this. But I don’t think it’s ever going to happen unless they dump Kampf. And at this point, I don’t think Treliving’s interested in doing that.
 
Kampf's responsibilities are way down tho. I'm not sure if that means he's on the outs or id they're just seeing or letting other teams see what some of the other guys can do.
 
zeke said:
Kampf's responsibilities are way down tho. I'm not sure if that means he's on the outs or id they're just seeing or letting other teams see what some of the other guys can do.
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I’m not sure it’s either. I think Treliving is just entirely comfortable with a 4th liner making the salary Kampf does.
 
Maybe. But he hasn't signed any bottom liners for more than $1.5.

When he signed Kampf he had just come off 15:16 and 15:18 toi seasons (!). And then last year he was at 13:29.

This year he's at 10:56.
 
They’ve already moved domi back to centre which says to me he sees kampf as a 4th line c.

I think kampf - Lorentz is a berube “pair”.
 
I've always added Kampf in some of my trade suggestions, mostly for his money.

But he obviously is doing things right for his coaches to make him a favorite.

And then he shows what he can do while at the worlds or whatever.

It's just too much damn money.

So you gotta move Lilly and Krok and Kampf is the 4C and I'm okay with that. Especially with Lorentz. Reaves just has to be used in games like tonight and then give the spot to Holmberg if patches comes in and plays with JT and Robertson.

This is how it should play out
 
mbow30 said:
They’ve already moved domi back to centre which says to me he sees kampf as a 4th line c.

I think kampf - Lorentz is a berube “pair”.
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I don't know that 4th line guys are ever a pair. And Holmberg-Lorentz was the first PK pair to start the year.

And he's also already jumbled the other attempted pairings other than M&M.
 
5v5

Season: 3.18xgf/60 (#7), 2.68xg/60 (#21), 51.84xgf% (#14)

Gm1 MTL (0-1): 5.23xgf/60, 2.94xga/60, 64.0xgf%
Gm2 NJD (4-2): 2.77xgf/60, 1.53xga/60, 64.3xgf%
Gm3 PIT (4-2): 2.00xgf/60, 1.29xga/60, 60.7xgf%
Gm4 LAK (6-2): 1.33xgf/60, 4.86xga/60, 21.51xgf%
Gm5 NYR (1-4): 3.34xgf/60, 3.04xga/60, 52.33xgf%


Thru 5gms the metrics are very mediocre (tho SV% is good), but only because of that ludicrous number vs LA, where we apparently put up the worst performance of the Matthews Era despite comfortably winning a blowout with all our goals coming on glorious chances. I still think the metrics were broken that game they didn't come close to matching my eye test at least.

Minus that LA game: 3.30xgf/60 (#3), 1.45xga/60 (#1), 69.5xgf% (#1)
 
Mitch is looking better so far but even then I think we should split him and Matthews. Mitch is still always just looking for Auston and it's hurting his game. At least he has his feet moving again this year though.
 
Yeah, I rewatched part of the Kings game and the I don't see a Leaf team getting caved in.

Natty gave us credit for 4 HD Chances (all strengths in the 1st period) and just going through the SN highlight pack for the 1st period alone:

- OEL walked in off the point and had an open shot from the left slot
- Tavares missed the net on a wide open slot shot on the PP
- McMann scores on deflection/rebound, open net from the slot
- Matthews goal from just above the dot, wide open
- McMann 2nd on a breakaway

With only 10 in total and taking a look at some individual stuff, this is JT's shot location

1729451452420.png


That's 5 shot attempts from high danger areas by himself ffs. At the other end I'm just not seeing the shot attempts that lead to the Kings blob in front of our net.

If someone had told me that it was 60/40 Kings overall because of score effects or some shit, sure. But one of the worst cave ins of the Matthews era? Nah.
 
TOI% is better than TOI especially when looking at small samples where special teams and odd-number times can skew the totals so much. I'll also throw in Gms Played % to get a better idea of overall roles.



Last year GM%/TOI% ---> Playoffs GM%/TOI% ---> This year GM%/TOI%

5v5

Matthews 99% / 31.2% ---> Matthews 71% / 30.5% ---> Matthews 100% / 30.1%
Marner 84% / 29.6% ---> Marner 100% / 29.2% ---> Marner 100% / 30.1%
Nylander 100% / 29.1% ---> Nylander 57% / 34.0% ---> Nylander 100% / 29.4%

Tavares 98% / 28.3% ---> Tavares 100% / 29.0% ---> Domi 100% / 28.0%
Bertuzzi 98% / 28.5% ---> Bertuzzi 100% / 30.6% ---> McMann 80% / 26.7%
Knies 98% / 25.6% ---> Knies 100% / 27.7% ---> Knies 100% / 29.3%

Kampf 95% / 21.8% ---> Kampf 100% / 22.8% ---> Tavares 80% / 24.7%
Domi 98% / 24.6% ---> Domi 100% / 29.2% ---> Robertson 100% / 23.6%
Jarnkrok 63% / 24.1% ---> Jarnkrok 100% / 20.7% ---> Holmberg 100% / 23.4%

Holmberg 66% / 21.1% ---> Holmberg 100% / 20.1% ---> Kampf 100% / 19.9%
Robertson 68% / 21.4% ---> Robertson 86% / 17.4% ---> Pacioretty 60% / 20.4%
McMann 68% / 21.2% ---> Dewar 86% / 20.5% ---> Lorentz 100% / 18.3%

Dewar 21% / 21.6% ---> McMann 00% / 00.0% ---> Dewar 00% / 00.0%
Gregor 77% / 20.7% ---> Gregor 29% / 15.2% ---> Jarnkrok 00% / 00.0%
Reaves 60% / 16.3% ---> Reaves 71% / 15.2% ---> Reaves 80% / 18.0%



Rielly 88% / 38.7% ---> Rielly 100% / 38.6% ---> Rielly 100% / 40.1%
McCabe 89% / 35.2% ---> McCabe 100% / 34.7% ---> McCabe 100% / 35.2%

Brodie* 95%/37.0% ---> Edmundson 100% / 32.3% ---> OEL 100% / 37.2%
Liljegren 67% / 33.2% ---> Liljegren 86% / 32.4% ---> Tanev 100% / 31.1%

Benoit 78%/31.1% ---> Benoit 100% / 31.6% ---> Benoit 100% / 29.1%
Giordano* 56%/27.8% ---> Lyubushkin 100% / 31.2% ---> Timmins 80% / 28.5%

Lagesson 37% / 26.2% ---> Brodie 14% / 20.6% ---> Liljegren 20% / 25.7%
Klingberg* 17% / 33.6% ---> (replaced by benoit) ---> Hakanpaa 00% / 00.0%

Lyubushkin* 23%/30.9% ---> (replaced giordano) ---> Myers 00% / 00.0%
Edmundson* 11%/31.5% ---> (replaced brodie) ---> XXXXX 00% / 00.0%




4v5

Kampf 95% / 51.5% ---> Kampf 100% / 48.1% ---> Lorentz 100% / 39.4%
Marner 84% / 45.1% ---> Marner 100% / 41.7% ---> Marner 100% / 34.6%

Jarnkrok 63% / 34.1% ---> Holmberg 100% / 41.3% ---> Holmberg 100% / 35.2%
Gregor* 77% / 24.0% ---> Jarnkrok 100% / 32.6% ---> Knies 100% / 30.1%

Nylander 100% / 21.1% ---> Dewar 86% / 24.9% ---> Kampf 100% / 29.0%
Holmberg 66% / 20.8% ---> Knies 100% / 10.5% ---> Matthews 100% / 27.0%

Matthews 99% / 15.5% ---> Matthews 71% / 5.4% ---> Jarnkrok 00% / 00.0%
Dewar* 21% / 40.3% ---> (replaced gregor) ---> Dewar 00% / 00.0%


Brodie* 95% / 57.8% ---> Edmundson 100% / 60.8% ---> Tanev 100% / 57.4%
McCabe 89% / 46.7% ---> McCabe 100% / 51.8% ---> McCabe 100% / 56.6%

Benoit 78% / 34.4% ---> Benoit 100% / 30.8% ---> Benoit 100% / 34.9%
Giordano* 56% / 45.2% ---> Lyubushkin 100% / 26.7% ---> Timmins 80% / 35.3%

Liljegren 67% / 23.7% ---> Rielly 100% / 13.2% ---> OEL 100% / 19.2%
Lagesson 37% / 26.7% ---> Liljegren 86% / 8.8% ---> Liljegren 20% / 25.2%

Edmundson* 11% / 46.9% ---> (replaced brodie) ---> Hakanpaa 00% / 00.0%
Lyubushkin* 23% / 34.1% ---> (replaced gio) ---> Myers 00% / 00.0%





​
 
4v5 stats

Lorentz 13:05, 6.38xga/60, 8.90ga/60
Holmberg 11:42, 9.44xga/60, 9.95ga/60

Marner 11:30, 7.15xga/60, 4.85ga/60
Knies 10:00, 9.36xga/60, 0.00ga/60

Kampf 9:37, 11.23xga/60, 0.00ga/60
Matthews 8:58, 3.75xga/60, 6.22ga/60


Tanev 19:05, 7.80xga/60, 6.10ga/60
McCabe 18:49, 5.90xga/60, 6.18ga/60

Benoit 11:35, 11.61xga/60, 4.82ga/60
Timmins 9:06, 12.13xga/60, 0.00ga/60

OEL 6:22, 3.39xga/60, 8.76ga/60
Liljegren 1:53, 5.43xga/60, 0.00ga/60


While technically Matthews is getting the least PK TOI out of that group all 6 of them are getting full-time PK usage, and no other forward has more than a handful of seconds on the PK. And iirc Matthews is actually the guy getting the top PK usage in the key late game moments, so I don't mind him missing some PK shifts as long as berube realizes he's his best pk guy.

I'm surprised by how good Lorentz has been on the PK tbh, I thought he was just there for the idea of him being a defensive guy, not because he could actually do it well. So far so good though.

And i'd probably go back to trying OEL on that 2nd PK pair rather than Timmins.
 
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