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No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

MindzEye said:
Poor way of looking at team building imo. When you have the opportunity to add a player widely considered to be future stud winger for 2 1sts you don't go all positional bias on it. There's all sorts of ways to improve your club to be competitive and eventually build a winner. Shit, if that same summer saw us sign Tomas Vokoun instead of Toskalol like a bunch of us wanted at the time the whole world looks different with elite goaltending. We spent cap on Komisarek, Tim fucking Connolly and a bunch of other junk over that period. We had everything we need to build a good team immediately and then worry about acquiring positional needs later. This isn't paint by numbers, you can't just sit around waiting for an elite #1C or elite #1D to come available and never spend assets on anything else until those spots are filled.
Click to expand...

Much like when one of the highest-scoring free agents becomes available and is willing to sign long-term.
 
This is all tiny sample, but i wanted to take a look at Tavares' numbers to see if they think this tiny sample is just a fluke or legit better play....


xGF%

1. 23-24: 60.2%
2. 21-22: 55.7%
3. 20-21: 55.6%
4. 22-23: 54.6%
5. 18-19: 54.1%
6. 19-20: 51.8%

xGF% Rel

1. 23-24: +9.1
2. 18-19: +2.0
3. 22-23: +0.2
4. 21-22: +0.0
5. 19-20: -0.1
6. 20-21: -0.1

DZS%-OZS%

1. 23-24: +0.8%
2. 18-19: -2.1%
3. 19-20: -4.1%
4. 20-21: -4.5%
5. 22-23: -6.2%
6. 21-22: -7.1%

Crushing it at a level he never has for the leafs before, despite the fact that he's getting much tougher deployment than he's ever had before.



Average of p/60 and p1/60

1. 18-19: 2.60
2. 23-24: 2.24
3. 20-21: 1.84
4. 22-23: 1.81
5. 21-22: 1.75
6. 19-20: 1.63

OISH%

1. 18-19: 11.3%
2. 22-23: 9.2%
3. 21-22: 9.1%
4. 20-21: 8.4%
5. 19-20: 8.4%
6. 23-24: 6.7%

SH%

1. 18-19: 16.5%
2. 23-24: 10.5%
3. 22-23: 10.0%
4. 21-22: 9.9%
5. 20-21: 9.7%
6. 19-20: 9.0%

Trailing only his first year 18-19 in 5v5 production......but that 18-19 production came with unsustainably high individual shooting percentage and on-ice team shooting percentage, while this year if anything Tavares looks UNLUCKY so far with the lowest oish% of his leafs career by a good margin, and an individual shooting percentage just a touch above average.



So yeah the stats agree 1000% with the eye test on his play this year - who knows if he can keep it up but he's performing like a legit elite center to start this year.
 
BG said:
Much like when one of the highest-scoring free agents becomes available and is willing to sign long-term.
Click to expand...

Sure, though I'd argue that "2 1sts" on face value is a lower price to pay for a player of that calibre (at 21) than 14% of your cap x 7 years (at 28)
 
zeke said:
This is all tiny sample, but i wanted to take a look at Tavares' numbers to see if they think this tiny sample is just a fluke or legit better play....


xGF%

1. 23-24: 60.2%
2. 21-22: 55.7%
3. 20-21: 55.6%
4. 22-23: 54.6%
5. 18-19: 54.1%
6. 19-20: 51.8%

xGF% Rel

1. 23-24: +9.1
2. 18-19: +2.0
3. 22-23: +0.2
4. 21-22: +0.0
5. 19-20: -0.1
6. 20-21: -0.1

DZS%-OZS%

1. 23-24: +0.8%
2. 18-19: -2.1%
3. 19-20: -4.1%
4. 20-21: -4.5%
5. 22-23: -6.2%
6. 21-22: -7.1%

Crushing it at a level he never has for the leafs before, despite the fact that he's getting much tougher deployment than he's ever had before.



Average of p/60 and p1/60

1. 18-19: 2.60
2. 23-24: 2.24
3. 20-21: 1.84
4. 22-23: 1.81
5. 21-22: 1.75
6. 19-20: 1.63

OISH%

1. 18-19: 11.3%
2. 22-23: 9.2%
3. 21-22: 9.1%
4. 20-21: 8.4%
5. 19-20: 8.4%
6. 23-24: 6.7%

SH%

1. 18-19: 16.5%
2. 23-24: 10.5%
3. 22-23: 10.0%
4. 21-22: 9.9%
5. 20-21: 9.7%
6. 19-20: 9.0%

Trailing only his first year 18-19 in 5v5 production......but that 18-19 production came with unsustainably high individual shooting percentage and on-ice team shooting percentage, while this year if anything Tavares looks UNLUCKY so far with the lowest oish% of his leafs career by a good margin, and an individual shooting percentage just a touch above average.



So yeah the stats agree 1000% with the eye test on his play this year - who knows if he can keep it up but he's performing like a legit elite center to start this year.
Click to expand...
can you do Willy too?

don't want to take away from JT since he's been great this season but wonder if we can see any 'sexy Willy' effect in the numbers... (likely not since they've mostly been glued to each other, but anyways)
 
zeke said:
This is all tiny sample, but i wanted to take a look at Tavares' numbers to see if they think this tiny sample is just a fluke or legit better play....


xGF%

1. 23-24: 60.2%
2. 21-22: 55.7%
3. 20-21: 55.6%
4. 22-23: 54.6%
5. 18-19: 54.1%
6. 19-20: 51.8%

xGF% Rel

1. 23-24: +9.1
2. 18-19: +2.0
3. 22-23: +0.2
4. 21-22: +0.0
5. 19-20: -0.1
6. 20-21: -0.1

DZS%-OZS%

1. 23-24: +0.8%
2. 18-19: -2.1%
3. 19-20: -4.1%
4. 20-21: -4.5%
5. 22-23: -6.2%
6. 21-22: -7.1%

Crushing it at a level he never has for the leafs before, despite the fact that he's getting much tougher deployment than he's ever had before.



Average of p/60 and p1/60

1. 18-19: 2.60
2. 23-24: 2.24
3. 20-21: 1.84
4. 22-23: 1.81
5. 21-22: 1.75
6. 19-20: 1.63

OISH%

1. 18-19: 11.3%
2. 22-23: 9.2%
3. 21-22: 9.1%
4. 20-21: 8.4%
5. 19-20: 8.4%
6. 23-24: 6.7%

SH%

1. 18-19: 16.5%
2. 23-24: 10.5%
3. 22-23: 10.0%
4. 21-22: 9.9%
5. 20-21: 9.7%
6. 19-20: 9.0%

Trailing only his first year 18-19 in 5v5 production......but that 18-19 production came with unsustainably high individual shooting percentage and on-ice team shooting percentage, while this year if anything Tavares looks UNLUCKY so far with the lowest oish% of his leafs career by a good margin, and an individual shooting percentage just a touch above average.



So yeah the stats agree 1000% with the eye test on his play this year - who knows if he can keep it up but he's performing like a legit elite center to start this year.
Click to expand...

I'd love to see JT on a mission this year, because Robot John isn't going to get it done here in the playoffs.
 
Probably some, but definitely not all. JT has been noticeably quicker and more aggressive to start the year. Looks a lot more like 1st year with the Leafs JT than anything since then imo.
 
Slinger 48 said:
The hot dog vendor?
Click to expand...

6b6e7bf0992f9f5811b5e4f4fbad7794
 
Wayward DP said:
can you do Willy too?

don't want to take away from JT since he's been great this season but wonder if we can see any 'sexy Willy' effect in the numbers... (likely not since they've mostly been glued to each other, but anyways)
Click to expand...

Willy's been great obviously but he was also great in previous years, so the difference isn't as stark as it is with JT.


xGF%

1. 23-24: 57.6%
2. 20-21: 56.8%
3. 21-22: 56.0%
4. 22-23: 55.8%
5. 18-19: 55.6%
6. 19-20: 54.0%
7. 16-17: 52.9%
8. 17-18: 49.6%

xGF% Rel

1. 23-24: +5.3
2. 18-19: +5.1
3. 22-23: +2.4
4. 19-20: +2.2
5. 16-17: +1.6
6. 20-21: +1.5
7. 21-22: +0.0
8. 17-18: -1.6

DZS% - OZS%

1. 17-18: -3.4%
2. 16-17: -5.7%
3. 18-19: -6.6%
4. 23-24: -6.6%
5. 20-21: -7.4%
6. 22-23: -8.3%
7. 21-22: -8.9%
8. 19-20: -9.4%

Willy's also at a career best level but not that much better than what he's done before, and not in tougher usage either.


Average of p/60 and p1/60

1. 23-24: 2.74
2. 22-23: 2.23
3. 17-18: 2.06
4. 19-20: 2.06
5. 21-22: 2.05
6. 20-21: 2.03
7. 18-19: 1.52
8. 16-17: 1.42

OISH%

1. 17-18: 12.1%
2. 22-23: 9.5%
3. 23-24: 9.0%
4. 21-22: 8.5%
5. 20-21: 8.3%
6. 19-20: 8.2%
7. 18-19: 7.6%
8. 16-17: 6.6%

SH%

1. 23-24: 17.4%
2. 19-20: 12.7%
3. 22-23: 10.8%
4. 20-21: 10.5%
5. 21-22: 9.9%
6. 17-18: 9.0%
7. 16-17: 7.9%
8. 18-19: 5.3%


His production is sky high right now but that comes with a likely unsustainable shooting percentage and a normal on-ice shooting percentage so again it's excellent but not quite as dramatic as the captain's upgrade imo.


According to Natural Stat Trick's With and Without numbers the difference is even more dramatic:

Tavares plus Willy: 58.1xgf%
Tavares no Willy: 60.9xgf%
Willy no Tavares: 49.0xgf%


and i think a lot of those without Tavares minutes are Willy playing with Matthews and Marner in cushy ozone usage.
 
zeke said:
Willy's been great obviously but he was also great in previous years, so the difference isn't as stark as it is with JT.


xGF%

1. 23-24: 57.6%
2. 20-21: 56.8%
3. 21-22: 56.0%
4. 22-23: 55.8%
5. 18-19: 55.6%
6. 19-20: 54.0%
7. 16-17: 52.9%
8. 17-18: 49.6%

xGF% Rel

1. 23-24: +5.3
2. 18-19: +5.1
3. 22-23: +2.4
4. 19-20: +2.2
5. 16-17: +1.6
6. 20-21: +1.5
7. 21-22: +0.0
8. 17-18: -1.6

DZS% - OZS%

1. 17-18: -3.4%
2. 16-17: -5.7%
3. 18-19: -6.6%
4. 23-24: -6.6%
5. 20-21: -7.4%
6. 22-23: -8.3%
7. 21-22: -8.9%
8. 19-20: -9.4%

Willy's also at a career best level but not that much better than what he's done before, and not in tougher usage either.


Average of p/60 and p1/60

1. 23-24: 2.74
2. 22-23: 2.23
3. 17-18: 2.06
4. 19-20: 2.06
5. 21-22: 2.05
6. 20-21: 2.03
7. 18-19: 1.52
8. 16-17: 1.42

OISH%

1. 17-18: 12.1%
2. 22-23: 9.5%
3. 23-24: 9.0%
4. 21-22: 8.5%
5. 20-21: 8.3%
6. 19-20: 8.2%
7. 18-19: 7.6%
8. 16-17: 6.6%

SH%

1. 23-24: 17.4%
2. 19-20: 12.7%
3. 22-23: 10.8%
4. 20-21: 10.5%
5. 21-22: 9.9%
6. 17-18: 9.0%
7. 16-17: 7.9%
8. 18-19: 5.3%


His production is sky high right now but that comes with a likely unsustainable shooting percentage and a normal on-ice shooting percentage so again it's excellent but not quite as dramatic as the captain's upgrade imo.


According to Natural Stat Trick's With and Without numbers the difference is even more dramatic:

Tavares plus Willy: 58.1xgf%
Tavares no Willy: 60.9xgf%
Willy no Tavares: 49.0xgf%


and i think a lot of those without Tavares minutes are Willy playing with Matthews and Marner in cushy ozone usage.
Click to expand...
thanks, this is enlightening!
 
Compared to open water swimming, give me a (well managed) pool any day. Years of environmental sampling have me cringing anytime I have to touch surface water.
 
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