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No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

I'll be at the game tonight....last two no bueno. Hopefully minten uses this opportunity.

I also have the Minnesota game next week. I'm hoping to sell those.
 
Oettinger again tonight. 10-2-1 in last 13 = hottest team in the league.

Cayden Primeau lost 9 of 11 games with a -9.5 goals saved above expected 😳. Literal sieve.

Acquired Carrier for Barron 😂.

Team isn't the same one it was the first couple of months. Primeau really shit the bed.
 
Leafs Last Month (since Dec.15):


5v5


Matthews: 9gms, 13:46 (-5.7dzs%), 50.1xgf%, 47.0gf%, 2.91ap/60
Marner: 15gms, 14:54 (-4.9dzs%), 52.2xgf%, 51.5gf%, 2.28ap/60
Nylander: 15gms, 15:15 (-3.4dzs%), 50.1xgf%, 46.8gf%, 1.71ap/60

Tavares: 15gms, 14:53 (-2.1dzs%), 47.8xgf%, 54.3gf%, 1.88ap/60
Knies: 15gms, 14:17 (-3.2dzs%), 57.0xgf%, 49.1gf%, 1.54ap/60
Pacioretty: 13gms, 13:20 (-5.6dzs%), 43.1xgf%, 39.3gf%, 0.70ap/60

Domi: 15gms, 12:18 (-6.2dzs%), 53.5xgf%, 57.1gf%, 2.44ap/60
McMann: 15gms, 13:09 (-3.6dzs%), 47.4xgf%, 56.0gf%, 2.44ap/60
Robertson: 14gms, 11:23 (-10.1dzs%), 51.8xgf%, 53.0gf%, 3.20ap/60

Kampf: 14gms, 11:22 (+10.2dzs%), 44.1xgf%, 43.3gf%, 1.13ap/60
Lorentz: 15gms, 9:35 (+9.9dzs%), 42.8xgf%, 70.4gf%, 1.46ap/60
Dewar: 13gms, 8:55 (+11.8dzs%), 39.8xgf%, 48.8gf%, 0.52ap/60

Holmberg: 5gms, 12:00 (-4.1dzs%), 45.5xgf%, 00.0gf%, 0.00ap/60
Reaves: 7gms, 7:48 (+17.5dzs%), 47.6xgf%, 31.9gf%, 1.10ap/60


Rielly: 15gms, 18:30 (-6.8dzs%), 55.6xgf%, 41.2gf%, 0.65ap/60
OEL: 14gms, 17:51 (+1.5dzs%), 53.1xgf%, 53.1gf%, 0.72ap/60

McCabe: 11gms, 17:12 (+4.4dzs%), 47.2xgf%, 51.1gf%, 0.96ap/60
Tanev: 14gms, 17:10 (+7.7dzs%), 57.2xgf%, 56.5gf%, 0.63ap/60

Myers: 11gms, 16:15 (-4.9dzs%), 53.8xgf%, 44.5gf%, 0.34ap/60
Timmins: 10gms, 15:09 (+0.0dzs%), 37.1xgf%, 45.8gf%, 0.20ap/60

Benoit: 15gms, 14:46 (+3.3dzs%), 32.2xgf%, 47.7gf%, 0.27ap/60


Woll: 10gms, .897sv%
Hildeby: 3gms, .898sv%
Murray: 2gms, .876sv%



Kinda funny how much heat Domi is getting tbh. We actually finally have a productive 3rd line for the first time in forever and people hate it. And defensively they've actually been fine by both goals and expected goals.


The Rielly hate is more understandable given his lack of production (and the goals against) but he's actually probably playing better than we think he is.
 

View: https://x.com/evandoerfler/status/1879985415081566701

Something that may play in to both Tavares and Stolarz' returns is that the 2-week Four Nations break is only 3 weeks away.

So they could just play it safe and give each of them another 5 weeks off instead of trying to squeeze a few games out of them before the break.

10gms until the break, including tonight. There's at least one day off between each of those games, and twice there's 2 days off and once there's 3 days off.

01/16: NJD
01/17:
01/18: @MTL
01/19:
01/20: TBL
01/21:
01/22: CBJ
01/23:
01/24:
01/25: @OTT
01/26:
01/27:
01/28:
01/29: MIN
01/30:
01/31:
02/01: @EDM
02/02:
02/03:
02/04: @CGY
02/05:
02/06: @SEA
02/07:
02/08: @VAN

***break until Feb 22***

If they're recovering too well to make giving them the extra time useful, then maybe targetting the minnesota game 2 weeks from now would be the most beneficial time to bring them back as we'll be facing some tougher teams at that point, or at least in time for the final 4gm western trip right before the break.
 
Using Dom's (finally) Updated Net Rating Forecasts, here's how all the teams ranked. I tried to use the most accurate/realsitic lineups I could. i.e. i could have goosed the Leafs' ranking a couple spots by using Jarnkrok instead of Holmberg but I'm not sure Krok is even a thing anymore, and other guys on other teams on LTIR didn't necessarily get a rating even though they're just as likely to come back.

note that this uses goalie ratings from the start of the season cuz i don't see any goalie updates on theathletic.com.


Team Rankings

Screenshot 2025-01-16 201551.png

​

Leafs' ranking is especially hurt by Matthews being only a stud star in stead of super duper elite. We're going to want him to get back to normal come playoffs.

But even then, a solid trade upgrade or two would be wise.
 
With watching mcabe again and seeing the bottom pair struggle again. A player I would love to target is the same guy we've had interest in when we picked up McCabe.

6'4 Right shooting D Connor Murphy

I think a bottom pair of OEL and Murphy behind Tanev mcabe....could free up Reilly with I don't know who....but myers isn't playing too bad., Reilly is opening up a bit more offensively...I saw it clearly last night.

I like Murphy as a replacement for Timmins/Benoit
And he is long and mean
 
Significant-ticket UFA D updated Net Ratings:


1. TOR Tanev (35, $4.5x6): +8 (19:38)
2. CAR Gostisbehere (31, $3.2x3): +6 (19:03)
3. SEA Montour (30, $7.14x7): +4 (23:38)
4. TOR OEL (33, $3.5x4): +4 (21:05)
5. NJD Pesce (30, $5.5x6): +2 (20:59)
6. WSH Roy (29, $5.75x6): +1 (19:41)
7. CHI Martinez (37, $4.0x1): 0 (19:55)
8. CAR Walker (30, $3.6x5): 0 (16:07)
9. UTA Cole (35, $3.1x1): -2 (20:56)
10. LAK Edmundson (31, $3.85x4): -2 (20:36)
11. NSH Skjei (30, $7.0x7): -3 (21:31)
12. PIT Grzelcyk (30, $2.75x2): -3 (20:11)
13. BOS Zadorov (29, $5.0x6): -3 (19:54)
14. NJD DIllon (34, $4.0x4): -3 (17:58)
15. MTL Carrier (28, $3.75x3): -4 (20:11)
16. DAL Lyubushkin (30, $3.25x3): -4 (16:54)
17. DAL Dumba (30, $3.75x2): -5 (15:25)
18. CHI Brodie (34, $3.75x2): -7 (15:52)
 
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