No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

[Aberdeen]

 

[Artnes]

Berube has cracked the code

 

[MindzEye]

Yeah it's not even a case of us getting some crazy fluke pdo luck like wsh or wpg, we're just narrowly outscoring teams game after game.

Totes sustainable

 

[leafman101]

Since December 1
McMann - 19 gp, 7 gls, 14 pts (82 gp, 30 gls, 60 pts)
Knies - 25 gp, 9 gls, 17 pts (82 gp, 30 gls, 56 pts)
Robertson 20 gp, 6 gls, 10 pts (82 gp, 25 gls, 40 pts)

 

[zeke]

yeah it's a big mess.

we overachieve our nerdies at 5v5 but underachieve them on special teams.

Overall we're #11 in goal production (tho #8-11 are a virtual tie), and #12 in goal prevention. That combo does deserve to be a top-10 team on the surface.

And overall the offense (3.15gf/60) isn't overachieving, as they're #10 in expected goals too (3.21xgf/60).

The defense (#12 2.85ga/60) definitely seems to be overachieving by a lot (#24 3.24xga/60), which is either because goaltending is saving our asses or because we're doing something to make the goalies look good, or probably a bit of a both.

The thing is we know this group of players is easily capable of more dominating play and better numbers, but are choosing to play a different style on purpose.

 

[LeafGm]

The XGF Cup is for nerds.


Berube > Nerds

 

[zeke]

Since December 1
McMann - 19 gp, 7 gls, 14 pts (82 gp, 30 gls, 60 pts)
Knies - 25 gp, 9 gls, 17 pts (82 gp, 30 gls, 56 pts)
Robertson 20 gp, 6 gls, 10 pts (82 gp, 25 gls, 40 pts)

Matthews 60/104
Marner 20/118
Nylander 43/79

Tavares 37/78
McMann 30/60
Knies 30/56

Domi 12/43
Robertson 25/40
Pacioretty 13/26

Kampf 15/19
Lorentz 7/23
Holmberg 6/16

Minten 10/10
Dewar 0/11
Reaves 0/6


Rielly 3/26
McCabe 5/41

OEL 7/38
Tanev 0/27

Myers 0/14
Timmins 0/12

Benoit 0/4



Mo and Patches the only ones not giving us what we need from their roles offensively lately.

 

[zeke]

there's definitely a number of excuses i could still make for the nerdies of course.

1. injuries have been a thing. so for example, last night 3 of the 4 lines were good to fine by the nerdies, but one line got a bit caved in - the Holmberg line, which is supposed to be the Tavares line that's getting matched up against one of Tampa's elite top 2 lines. So it's not a surprise they got caved a bit. Of course, that line had like 5 breakways or partial breakways so i'm actually a bit puzzled and their low xgf number. Also i'm not sure Matthews' michigan last night even registered for any xgf at all.

2. it's still kinda hilarious how mujch of an outsized impact Benoit seems to have had on our numbers. Literally the entire team's nerdies look fine to good as long as he's not on the ice. What makes that even more hilarious is that he's still managed to be a positive in goal differential, because nothing is allowed to make sense this year.

3. league-wide the difference between good and bad xgf seems narrower than ever this year, with only one team barely over 55% so far. so that would lead to messier numbers.



Of course we could throw out all the nerdies and we're still faced with the fact that by the good old eye test we're just not seeing a dominant team out there. We're a seeing a team that gets outplayed way too often, that seems to rely on elite gamebreaking skill up front and somewhat surprising goaltending at the back. And that has nothing to do with the nerdies.

 

[zeke]

on the plus side for the nerdies, the Doms still have us as a ~top-5 squad, despite Matthews being rated as only a stud (+20) instead of a superduper stud (~+30).

 

[Volcanologist]

Of course we could throw out all the nerdies and we're still faced with the fact that by the good old eye test we're just not seeing a dominant team out there. We're a seeing a team that gets outplayed way too often, that seems to rely on elite gamebreaking skill up front and somewhat surprising goaltending at the back. And that has nothing to do with the nerdies.

no question goaltending has masked a lot. on the flip side it has killed us so many times in past years that I'm reluctant to be unhappy about it tbh

they're a skater or two that can add offence away still, way too many shifts by the bottom half of the lineup where we get buried this year

 

[leafman101]

Cup Winners Regular Season xGF rank
2024 - Panthers - 5th
2023 - Vegas - 10th
2022 - Avalanche - 8th
2021- Lightning - 9th
2020 - Lighting - 2nd
2019 - Blues 4th
2018 - Caps - 24th
2017 - Pens - 5th
2016 - Pens - 1st
2015 - Hawks - 18th
2014 - Kings - 4th
2013 - Hawks - 4th
2012 - Kings - 6th
2011 - Bruins - 16th
2010 -Hawks - 1st
2009 - Pens - 13th
2008 - Wings - 2nd

Top 5: 52.9%
Top 10: 76%
11-20: 17.6%
20>: 5.9%

.... the silver lining is while we wanted to be the Hawks or Pens, we are basically the Caps.

 

[Artnes]

Just for shits and giggles:

Leafs reg season xg%
18/19 - 5th
19/20 - 11th
20/21 - 2nd
21/22 - 2nd
22/23- 7th
23/24 - 9th

Results:

 

[LeafGm]

Just for shits and giggles:

Leafs reg season xg%
18/19 - 5th
19/20 - 11th
20/21 - 2nd
21/22 - 2nd
22/23- 7th
23/24 - 9th

Results:

Haven’t we won the XGF Cup in most of those first round playoff series losses as well?

 

[Artnes]

Since the Mattews era started:

4 out of 9 series they won the XG cup.

Owned 5v5 in the second round against Florida 53.78 to 46.22

 

[leafman101]

Since the start of the Core 4 (excluding this year)
Regular Season: 53.48% xGF (4th)
Playoffs: 51.27% xGF (10th out of 28)

 

[Artnes]

They do need a major upgrade at 3C and the bottom pairing if they want a deep run.

If the goaltending holds up they might be able to steal a round on that alone even with the current roster

 

[zeke]

the playoffs have consistently been sabotaged by absolutely useless special teams, though.

if you promise me our special teams will be dynamite these playoffs than yeah hey fuck 5v5.

 

[zeke]

Matthews 60/104
Marner 20/118
Nylander 43/79

Tavares 37/78
McMann 30/60
Knies 30/56

Domi 12/43
Robertson 25/40
Pacioretty 13/26

Kampf 15/19
Lorentz 7/23
Holmberg 6/16

Minten 10/10
Dewar 0/11
Reaves 0/6


Rielly 3/26
McCabe 5/41

OEL 7/38
Tanev 0/27

Myers 0/14
Timmins 0/12

Benoit 0/4



Mo and Patches the only ones not giving us what we need from their roles offensively lately.

1st 24gms ---> 2nd 24gms


Matthews 15gms, 33/77 ---> 18gms, 59/105
Marner 24gms, 31/113 ---> 24gms, 21/116
Nylander 24gms, 51/89 ---> 24gms, 44/79

Tavares 23gms, 39/78 ---> 21gms, 35/78
Knies 22gms, 37/56 ---> 24gms, 27/55
McMann 21gms, 23/27 ---> 19gms, 30/60

Domi 19gms, 0/26 ---> 21gms, 12/43
Robertson 21gms, 8/8 ---> 19gms, 26/43
Patches 13gms, 13/39 ---> 19gms, 13/26

Kampf 18mg, 0/14 ---> 17gms, 15/19
Lorentz 24gms, 10/17 ---> 24gms, 7/21
Holmberg 22gms, 4/19 ---> 14gm, 6/12

Dewar 8gms, 0/0 ---> 21gms, 0/12
Reaves 16gms, 0/5 ---> 13gms, 0/6
Minten 5gms, 33/66 ---> 7gms, 0/0



Rielly 24gms, 14/48 ---> 24gms, 3/27
McCabe 23gms, 0/18 ---> 16gms, 5/41

OEL 24gms, 3/31 ---> 23gms, 7/36
Tanev 24gms, 3/21 ---> 23gms, 0/29

Timmins 22gms, 4/19 ---> 19gms, 0/9
Benoit 22gms, 0/11 ---> 22gms, 0/4

Myers 2gms, 0/41 ---> 17gms, 0/10
Hakanpaa 2gms, 0/0 ---> 0gms, 0/0



Stolarz 14gms, .924 ---> 3gms, .944
Woll 8gms, .923 ---> 16gms, .900

Hildeby 2gms, .869 ---> 3gms, .909
Murray 0gms, .000 ---> 2gms, .879
​

 

[Volcanologist]

the playoffs have consistently been sabotaged by absolutely useless special teams, though.

if you promise me our special teams will be dynamite these playoffs than yeah hey fuck 5v5.

a legitimate point threat would force other teams to rewrite their PP scouting against us