No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

[zeke]

it's kinda fun that krok reaves patches dewar are out of the lineup and still it might be hard for Berube to choose who comes out for one of them.

steeves looks good and well rounded, homberg has really upped his game the last month or so, Kampf and Lorentz are just plain good 4th liners this year. And now if Robby actually starts producing again then it'll make it even tougher to choose. Though I still think Robby is the easiest one to pull out - and it's hard to argue too much when he's only producing at a 20ish pt pace. If he finally gets hot offensively though then it gets fun.

An underrated thing this year is that our 4th line isn't a gross liability this year like it's been most every year before. Net Rating has the current one as Kampf -5, Lorentz -3, Steeves -3....which is iirc the best 4th line ratings we've ever had - by far. We've usually been trotting out a group that averages closer to -10 each.

 

[leafman101]

 

[zeke]

We're 5th overall btw.

 

[zeke]

as the most injured team in hockey.

 

[Volcanologist]

it would be really hilarious if this was the year we finally won, with Stolarz carrying us on his back, just cause everyone hates the team so much this season. I think we're higher in the standings than we should be due to goaltending. and you know what, I'll take it.

 

[MindzEye]

it would be really hilarious if this was the year we finally won, with Stolarz carrying us on his back, just cause everyone hates the team so much this season. I think we're higher in the standings than we should be due to goaltending. and you know what, I'll take it.

I said it the day when signed Tavares and I still say it now. Fuck it, just win. I don't need to agree with how it gets done, just fucking win.

Still waiting

 

[zeke]

Holmberg got his most recent (last?) real opportunity i think starting on Jan 16 after being kinda pushed out of the lineup for a bit. Over this stretch they've also sort of finally approached having a healthyish lineup with some actual stability on lines and pairs for the first time all year. Still plenty of injuries during this stretch, and a key guy like tavares, but less of a tornado of injuries which has allowed the lines and pairings to get at least a bit of consistency.

Just wanted to take a quick look at how the lineup has been doing just over that stretch:

12gms, 8-4-0, 109pt pace, 52.2xgf%

Matthews (12gms): 5v5 14:59 (-6.4dzs%), 60.9xgf%, 2.33ap/60 -- 5v4 2:32, 6.93ap/60 -- SH 1:20
Marner (11gms): 5v5 15:28 (-2.8dzs%), 50.7xgf%, 1.77ap/60 ----- 5v4 2:24, 3.57ap/60 -- SH 1:43
Knies (10gms): 5v5 13:22 (-4.5dzs%), 54.8xgf%, 2.02ap/60 ------- 5v4 2:28, 7.32ap/60 -- SH 1:29

Tavares (6gms): 5v5 14:59 (+0.0dzs%), 28.6xgf%, 2.67ap/60 ------ 5v4 2:38, 3.79ap/60 -- SH 0:01
Nylander (12gms): 5v5 16:47 (-2.9dzs%), 45.8xgf%, 2.38ap/60 --- 5v4 2:26, 4.12ap/60 -- SH 0:01
McMann (12gms): 5v5 14:23 (-4.5dzs%), 47.6xgf%, 1.39ap/60 --- 5v4 1:40, 10.45ap/60 - SH 0:04

Domi (12gms): 5v5 13:08 (-7.0dzs%), 58.0xgf%, 0.95ap/60 ------- 5v4 1:09, 13.16ap/60 - SH 0:00
Holmberg (12gms): 5v5 12:48 (-8.9dzs%), 61.9xgf%, 0.98ap/60 -- 5v4 0:07, 23.69ap/60 - SH 0:26
Robertson (12gms): 5v5 10:35 (-7.5dzs%), 53.9xgf%, 0.47ap/60 -- 5v4 0:55, 10.93ap/60 - SH 0:01

Kampf (12gms): 5v5 9:28 (+11.1dzs%), 55.3xgf%, 0.80ap/60 ----- 5v4 0:04, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 1:41
Lorentz (12gms): 5v5 8:43 (+9.7dzs%), 65.8xgf%, 2.30ap/60 ----- 5v4 0:03, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 0:33
Steeves (2gms): 5v5 9:34 (+22.2dzs%), 68.9xgf%, 4.70ap/60 ----- 5v4 0:10, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 0:00

Minten (4gms): 5v5 9:27 (-4.3dzs%), 27.6xgf%, 0.00ap/60 -------- 5v4 0:58, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 0:00
Pacioretty (7gms): 5v5 10:50 (+0.0dzs%), 36.7xgf%, 0.79ap/60 --- 5v4 1:04, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 0:00
Reaves (5gms): 5v5 6:32 (+4.5dzs%), 51.7xgf%, 0.00ap/60 -------- 5v4 0:01, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 0:00

Dewar (2gms): 5v5 5:06 (+15.8dzs%), 51.1xgf%, 0.00ap/60 ------- 5v4 0:00, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 0:16
Quillan (1gms): 5v5 4:52 (+0.0dzs%), 0.0xgf%, 0.00ap/60 --------- 5v4 0:00, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 0:00


Rielly (12gms): 5v5 19:12 (-3.7dzs%), 51.2xgf%, 0.52ap/60 ------- 5v4 1:20, 9.31ap/60 --- SH 0:10
OEL (12gms): 5v5 18:08 (-0.3dzs%), 55.3xgf%, 0.97ap/60 -------- 5v4 1:03, 9.60ap/60 --- SH 0:50

McCabe (12gms): 5v5 18:48 (+0.3dzs%), 49.2xgf%, 0.94ap/60 --- 5v4 0:10, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 2:03
Tanev (12gms): 5v5 18:14 (+4.5dzs%), 50.5xgf%, 0.69ap/60 ------ 5v4 0:03, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 2:08

Benoit (10gms): 5v5 13:06 (+1.0dzs%), 58.6xgf%, 0.00ap/60 ----- 5v4 0:00, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 1:13
Timmins (8gms): 5v5 12:41 (-2.6dzs%), 57.6xgf%, 0.00ap/60 ----- 5v4 0:05, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 1:08
Myers (6gms): 5b5 12:11 (+0.0dzs%), 37.0xgf%, 0.82ap/60 ------ 5v4 0:00, 0.00ap/60 --- SH 0:46


That's pretty encouraging stuff from the bottom 6 and bottom pairing tbh. These are mostly youngish, fastish, grittyish players too, and with a good amount of skill for those roles.

I'm still far from convinced most of the names out there are upgrades on Domi at 3C.

Some issues at the top of the lineup during this stretch - Marner's been in a bit of a funk and Tavares was injured and hasn't been up to speed since he returned. Rielly also not good enough.


Robby looks like the most replaceable guy in the lineup there but that could change with a bit of an offensive explosion. Not sure i'm too eager to see steeves or holmberg come out of the lineup right now tho.

 

[zeke]

it would be really hilarious if this was the year we finally won, with Stolarz carrying us on his back, just cause everyone hates the team so much this season. I think we're higher in the standings than we should be due to goaltending. and you know what, I'll take it.

Leafs are at a 106pt pace with Woll and his .910 in net for 31gms btw.

109pt pace with Stolarz and his .928 in 19gms.

82pt pace with the 3rd stringers' .873 in 4gms.


And while the team nerdies are mediocre this year, when you look at the team individually, like with Net Rating, the Leafs are fully deserving of being a top-5 team in hockey, even ignoring all the injuries.



It's kind of funny because people really should be more excited about this team this year because of big things we haven't really had before - youngish guys like Knies and McMann giving us 30gl power winger type performance behind the big-4, Tanev and OEL giving us excellent top-4 quality performance giving us a full top-4 that we've never had before, and two goalies both playing well with a history of being good, also something we've never had before.

 

[zeke]

Last year's playoffs lineup:



Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi: 40.2min, 51.2xgf%
Bertuzzi-Domi-Marner: 35.1min, 53.6xgf%

Knies-Tavares-Nylander: 39.6min, 55.1xgf%
Knies-Tavares-Marner: 31.7min, 40.7xgf%

Dewar-Kampf-Reaves: 25.9min, 28.5xgf%
Dewar-Kampf-Jarnkrok: 16.3min, 32.6xgf%
Dewar-Kampf-Gregor: 8.3min, 11.5xgf%

Robertson-Holmberg-Jarnkrok: 24.8min, 58.9xgf%
Robertson-Holmberg-Gregor: 5.4min, 43.8xgf%



Rielly-Lyubushkin: 90.6min, 55.4xgf%
Rielly-Liljegren: 14.8min, 26.1xgf%

Benoit-McCabe: 90.5min, 48.2xgf%

Edmundson-Liljegren: 73.2min, 37.9xgf%
Edmundson-Brodie: 12.2min, 51.2xgf%

 

[leafman101]

Woll is 10th in GSAx/60 (min 10 gp - 5th among goalies with 30 starts). Raw number are just ok, but he's played behind not great D.

Stolarz is 3rd.

 

[leafman101]

From Moneypuck:

Goal Differential: 21 (6th) (115 GF, 94 GA)
xGoal Differential: 4.85 (15th) (114.07 xGF, 109.18 xGA)
Goal Differential above expected: 16.15 (8th) (0.97 goals above expected, -15.18 goals against above expected)

So their outperformance of xGF 5v5 is 94% goalies.

 

[zeke]

moneypuck's history with goaltending projections has been.....realbad. he tried to embarass this zeke dude on twitter and it went badly for him.

but hey maybe Stolarz and Woll really are that good. it's possible for sure. and maybe they'll suddenly suck in the playoffs.

or maybe the leafs defense is doing things that fuck with xga. i dunno.

i also note that the teams ahead of the leafs in the standings have much higher GSAx.

 

[Artnes]

I do miss the twitter fights between you and the nerds

 

[leafman101]

leafs finally killed stats zeke.

 

[zeke]

Net Rating still loves us i don't care.


and we've been over this GSAx thing over the years. it's always been wonky.

 

[zeke]

OCT: 52.1xgf% (#12)
NOV: 50.7xgf% (#15)
DEC: 48.3xgf% (#21)
JAN: 48.8xgf% (#20)
FEB: 53.2xgf% (#8)


the thing about the mediocre nerdies this year is that we know this team is capable of putting up better nerdies. elite nerdies. it's not a talent issue.

 

[leafman101]

I agree that talent has not been an issue so far this year. Including goaltending this is the best team on paper they’ve had.

 

[Slinger 48]

It's kind of funny because people really should be more excited about this team this year because of big things we haven't really had before - youngish guys like Knies and McMann giving us 30gl power winger type performance behind the big-4, Tanev and OEL giving us excellent top-4 quality performance giving us a full top-4 that we've never had before, and two goalies both playing well with a history of being good, also something we've never had before.

I'm keeping from being excited about them this year because being excited about them always come back to bite me in the ass.

So I'm going continue to be critical right up until some good shit happens.

 

[JackBurton]

The biggest most exciting thing might be Atlantic is much worse. You're as good as your opponents.

 

[Cal Gal]

I'm keeping from being excited about them this year because being excited about them always come back to bite me in the ass.

So I'm going continue to be critical right up until some good shit happens.

Yep.

Knies, McMann, OEL, and Tanev have, collectively, been a joy. But get reeeally excited overall? Scared to do that 'cuz, you know, sumthin' sumthin' Leafy AF.