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No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

LeafOfFaith said:
Why do we know that for sure with Woll?
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Because nothing he's done in his career suggests that he's of that level? He had a thoroughly mediocre NCAA career. Was a bad AHL goalie until he broke out with a good 21 games in the AHL last year and the first time we saw him for more than a cup of coffee at the NHL level, he put up a .907 and got hurt on a nothing play (he's had durability issues so far as a pro, so this is something to actually be concerned about going forward).

Even compared to probably the worst goaltending track record we have available that won a cup (adin hill), Woll's is a fair step down from that imo. By the time Hill was Woll's current age, he had 5+ years of professional experience as an average or average plus professional goalie at the the NHL (84 games), and AHL (138 games) levels. Woll has 37 NHL games that have been pretty okay, and 83 games in the AHL that were mostly abortionist until that .927 run of 21 games last season. Nothing he did this season suggested that breakout was for real either. He was fine, but just fine for the Leafs this season.
 
Goalies can look good and win a game or three, and still not be capable of putting together a run of cup winning play.

That's kind of my point.

Fwiw, I think Woll is a probably slightly below average NHL goalie (not among starters, among all goalies). Which means that a fair amount of the time, he'll play like an average or above average goalie but more often, he won't. 40% of 100% is still kind of a lot.
 
I think he's an asshole and has as good a shot as pretty much any other asshole at winning it all.

Likely not this year though, thanks to the numero uno asshole in chief.
 
MindzEye said:
Eh, this isn't really a good argument against settling for risky as fuck/bad goaltending imo. Yes, in small sample even top tier goalies can look bad. But let's zoom out a bit.

Sorokin

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Helle

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Both have been somewhere between pretty okay and quite good in the playoffs when we start to see a larger sample within the small seasonal samples.

I mean, if you look at the goalies having the most fun so far after 4 games is Shesty, Varlamov, Swayman, Logan Thompson, and Freddy. All goalies with varying levels of track records at or above league average. The bad goalies have all been bad (Sammy, Lindgren, Georgiev) though. Which is instructive imo. We can look at runs like Hill or Binnington's if we want to, but they're kind of not the same. Hill had been a league average or better goalie for most of the 3-4 years prior to the run, but kept getting stuck in backup jobs behind prime Kuemper, veteran Reimer and Logan Thompson. He was a pretty reliable ~.915 guy across the NHL and AHL over a bunch of years. Binngton's run is a bit overstated imo. .914 sv% isn't exactly a Tim Thomas redux.

Overall, I think the asset spend is kind of immaterial. You need goaltending. Whether that's a combo undervalued scraps from other orgs like Hill in conjunction with an internally developed guy like Thompson, or you're forced into spending big money and 1sts like Florida did with Bob and Knight, it doesn't matter. It's just not fucking negotiable. You need good goaltending, but it's not a guarantee either. Assholes, but necessary assholes.
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necessary assholes
 
LeafOfFaith said:
has as good a shot as pretty much any other asshole at winning it all.
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yeah, and that's not how it works despite what you want to think. Samsonov or Woll don't have the same chance of going on a .930 playoff heater as Shesterkin, or Sorokin, or Hellebuyck, etc, etc do. Weirdo shit can happen, but it's the exception, not the rule.
 
I think wolls game plays better in the playoffs than Sammy - leas scrambling and movement. And when you look at the b’a goals a disproportionate amount have been off shots with some distance, which a positional goalie should stop.
 
mbow30 said:
I think wolls game plays better in the playoffs than Sammy - leas scrambling and movement. And when you look at the b’a goals a disproportionate amount have been off shots with some distance, which a positional goalie should stop.
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Isn’t he better on the pk too?
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
To think this Leaf D core is good enough to win with any G
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Yeah, the blueline I usually reference as the minimum ability necessary is the Pens D core the year Letang was out with the first stroke.

Dumoulin-Hainsey
Maatta-Schultz
Daley-Cole

Dumoulin was a decent #2 shutty. Hainsey a boring but solid top 4. Schultz a defensive catastrophe that moved the puck well. Maatta kind of a #4-5. Daley and Cole both #5ish.
 
MindzEye said:
Yeah, the blueline I usually reference as the minimum ability necessary is the Pens D core the year Letang was out with the first stroke.

Dumoulin-Hainsey
Maatta-Schultz
Daley-Cole

Dumoulin was a decent #2 shutty. Hainsey a boring but solid top 4. Schultz a defensive catastrophe that moved the puck well. Maatta kind of a #4-5. Daley and Cole both #5ish.
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The Leaf D was worse than this before the trade deadline which made it worse and before Lilly became shitty scared depressed Lilly
 
Bertuzzi --- Matthews --- Robertson
Domi --- Holmberg --- Marner
Knies --- Tavares --- Nylander
Dewar --- Kampf --- Jarnkrok​
 
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