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OT: American Politics

MindzEye said:
Much better to have a system that enforces detention immediately after arrest with no trial eh?



Football numbers haven't been helping. I mean, if your starting point in the conversation isn't "fuck me we've been doing this all wrong for generations and need to fix the system", then you're warped.



That's uhhh...their constitutional right mate. You know, innocent until proven guilty by a jury of their peers, etc. Pre trial detention is only suppose to happen if they're a threat to public safety. It's not supposed to the defacto position of the system for all crimes. Bail was meant to be a mechanism for ensuring that they show up for trial, not one to ensure that poor people who get arrested remain detained until their trial.



for minors, yeah. You've got a choice to make. You can continue to put 17 yr olds in jail for shoplifting and have them come out of Con College a member of a major gang (yeah, that is indeed a thing. Forced gang membership along racial lines is basically how people survive the California prison system) and deeply connected to the criminal underworld in the state or you can let some dumb shit slide and tackle it other ways.

Again. The way y'all have been doing shit for decades is straight up broken. It's creating worse crime outcomes in the medium to long term and is monstrously expensive. It's a broken system from nose to tail.



Except they do. Everywhere in the world that alternative methods are used, better results are seen.


View attachment 21106

Poverty rates are also up by 10-15%. It's almost like there is a connection in there or something.
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My friend, you don't know what you're talking about. I know it draws praise to be a social justice warrior, but you're arguing against realities with your personal philosophies. The soapbox stuff you're positing in support of your position are nice and all, but they have no bearing on reality and the consequences of the changes that this dumbass DA has brought into effect.

https://www.westsidecurrent.com/opi...cle_54f8f8ba-6180-11ee-9370-47cf1369c13e.html

Among the offenses now eligible for zero bail are possession of a ghost gun, shooting on a public highway, unlawful sex with a minor, attempting to lure a minor away from home or school, false imprisonment, advocating for killing or injuring a Peace Officer, elder abuse, intentional injury or death to a guide dog or service animal, aggravated trespass into a residence, theft under $950, willful failure to appear after being released on own recognizance, and many, many more.
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So you're good with someone accused with raping a kid to be put right back on the street to rape another, or to flee and escape punishment? Opening fire on a highway? Home invasions? Theft of almost $1,000 per incident? You realize many criminals don't get caught, right? When apprehending someone who has committed one of these crimes, chances are they've done something before and gotten away with it or will do something again - and so they shouldn't be subject to a judge's discretion as to whether to impose bail and in what amount? This stuff you're on about is good for philosophical discussion in a college classroom, but garbage in the real world.

To emphasize, it's not like poor people automatically got hit with high bail they couldn't pay, and rich people walked off. The severity of the crime determined the bail, and case by case considerations went into the decision. Now there's no process at all, and there's just a revolving door of criminals out there living their best lives and making LA a much more dangerous place to live. Apart from danger, the shoplifting alone has caused many large drugstores (like CVS, Rite Aid, etc., and other retailers too like 99 Cent Stores) to close up shop in several places simply because they were losing more product than they could afford. Those huge tenants moving out of large spaces means landlords need to find another tenant to move in, and guess what - these huge empty properties are sitting around for months or years without any takers. There's a serious trickle down effect.

It's a big reason why people are so down on LA and why so many are leaving.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/per...S&cvid=6a71cdc3e5a9405a82a04826690a0796&ei=39

Outmigration to other states cost California $24 billion in outgoing personal incomes across 2021 and 2022, according to new IRS data. Departing Californians were significantly wealthier and more likely to have children or spouses than incoming Americans, suggesting wealthy families are leaving the state as poorer individuals come to seek their California dream.
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California lost a net 144,203 tax filers in the two years, representing $24 billion in lost personal adjusted gross income for the state. Those leaving the state had 38% more dependents or joint filers on their tax returns and an average AGI of $130,946, while those coming in had an average AGI of $111,689, or about 15% less income than those leaving.

“This will not bode well for California and its future personal income tax revenues,” said government and pension finance expert and former state Sen. John Moorlach to The Center Square. “It's not only employees that are leaving, it's entire businesses. Consequently, it's not as if we need in-migration to fill empty positions. The positions left, too.” 304 companies have left California since January 2019, according to the California Policy Center’s California Book of Exoduses, which tracks corporate exits from California.
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California Governor Gavin Newsom touted the state’s return to population growth this year thanks to rising foreign immigration and a slowdown in outmigration, but this financial data shows the state is trading higher income families for lower income individuals.
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It's a big problem, and someone off living in Canada doesn't really have the proper experience and insight regarding local LA issues over someone living in LA, wouldn't that stand to reason?

https://www.newsweek.com/california-district-attorney-recalls-george-gascon-pamela-price-1846768

A survey released by the Public Policy Institute of California in February 2023 found that "an overwhelming majority of California adults say violence and street crime is either a big problem or at least somewhat of a problem." Thirty percent said it was a big problem, and another 46 percent replied that it was somewhat of a problem in their community.

The share of adults saying it is at least somewhat of a problem has increased by 11 percent since February 2022, the institute said.
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You're just gonna have to trust me on this one.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
My friend, you don't know what you're talking about. I know it draws praise to be a social justice warrior, but you're arguing against realities with your personal philosophies. The soapbox stuff you're positing in support of your position are nice and all, but they have no bearing on reality and the consequences of the changes that this dumbass DA has brought into effect.

https://www.westsidecurrent.com/opi...cle_54f8f8ba-6180-11ee-9370-47cf1369c13e.html
Click to expand...

Except I'm not arguing against realities. I'm suggesting that the American system is blind to all other realities despite the pretty obvious statistics. Posting the opinion of a guy whose entire career has been about perpetuating an obviously broken system is literally asking a hammer how to put two pieces of wood together. He's going to suggest a nail because it's all he's ever known and all he's equipped to deal with.

Among western countries only America manages it's crime problems with mass incarceration and it somehow never improves the problem.
LeafOfFaith said:
So you're good with someone accused with raping a kid to be put right back on the street to rape another, or to flee and escape punishment? Opening fire on a highway? Home invasions? Theft of almost $1,000 per incident? You realize many criminals don't get caught, right? When apprehending someone who has committed one of these crimes, chances are they've done something before and gotten away with it or will do something again - and so they shouldn't be subject to a judge's discretion as to whether to impose bail and in what amount? This stuff you're on about is good for philosophical discussion in a college classroom, but garbage in the real world.
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You keep repeating this like you have a fucking clue.

www.dailynews.com

No crime wave caused by new ‘zero-bail,’ LA court official says, but advocates say rules not evenly applied

While data shows few booked under the new rules have reoffended, a court watchers group believes more people should have been released from custody.
www.dailynews.com www.dailynews.com

When it started last fall, Los Angeles County’s experiment with “zero bail” immediately led to fury and concern: With the Superior Court launching an effort to shift away from its traditional money bail system, some in local law enforcement, as well as elected leaders from around the region, said the plan had gone too far.

A long list of low-level crimes now carried $0 in bail — chaos and crime waves were sure to follow, critics of the reform warned.

But nearly six months in, none of the worst fears of zero bail’s harshest critics have come true, court leaders say. And they have the data to show it.

Few of those booked under the new protocols have reoffended, said David Slayton, the L.A. County Superior Court’s CEO since late 2022. He said those most at risk of recommitting serious crimes are staying behind bars.

“This was a big change,” Slayton said. “(Money bail) is the way we’ve been doing this for decades. It’s all people really know.”

In the first three weeks of the program, out of 435 people arrested who judges released after reviewing their cases, just two were later rebooked for new offenses. Since then, with thousands more cases reviewed and about 1,000 arrestees released, a handful of those have been rebooked, Slayton said.

“What the data shows,” Slayton said, “is that individuals who go through the screening process with the magistrates, very few of them have recommitted new offenses.”
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Let me repeat it. This isn't theoretical class room shit. Every fucking western nation aside from the US manages their crime problems without the hilariously expensive and punitive US methods and gets better results. Maybe, just fucking maybe they know something the US justice system doesn't?

LeafOfFaith said:
Now there's no process at all, and there's just a revolving door of criminals out there living their best lives and making LA a much more dangerous place to live.
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Except the data doesn't actually show this. This is some vibecession bullshit, but with crime instead of economics.

an overwhelming majority of California adults say violence and street crime is either a big problem or at least somewhat of a problem." Thirty percent said it was a big problem, and another 46 percent replied that it was somewhat of a problem in their community.
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No data, just vibes.
 
Illinois was actually the first state in the country, let's check in with their results after eliminating cash bail:

www.ksdk.com

Nearly 8 months into Illinois' new era without cash bail, experts say recidivism and jail populations are trending lower

Criminal justice reform advocates express feelings of vindication after early data shows impact of abolishing cash bail
www.ksdk.com www.ksdk.com

1720316026093.png

No spike in crime, jail population and recidivism down.

It's almost like being "tough on crime" just perpetuates more crime or something. Fucking weird.
 
Habsy said:
Both towns have their issue sections but you need to be more specific. Miami or Dade County? LA or LA County?
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I was comparing cities. But according to chatGPT Overall Crime Rates: Miami-Dade County tends to have higher crime rates compared to Los Angeles County as well. I'm too lazy to dig deeper.
 
You guys are arguing apples and oranges.

The American system is fucked.
The penal system doesn't work, AND cities are a mess.

You can have it both ways.
The American penal system isn't about rehab, it's a business...that's true.

LA and San fran are stinky and crime-riddled...also true.

I
 
MindzEye said:
Except I'm not arguing against realities. I'm suggesting that the American system is blind to all other realities despite the pretty obvious statistics. Posting the opinion of a guy whose entire career has been about perpetuating an obviously broken system is literally asking a hammer how to put two pieces of wood together. He's going to suggest a nail because it's all he's ever known and all he's equipped to deal with.

Among western countries only America manages it's crime problems with mass incarceration and it somehow never improves the problem.


You keep repeating this like you have a fucking clue.

www.dailynews.com

No crime wave caused by new ‘zero-bail,’ LA court official says, but advocates say rules not evenly applied

While data shows few booked under the new rules have reoffended, a court watchers group believes more people should have been released from custody.
www.dailynews.com www.dailynews.com



Let me repeat it. This isn't theoretical class room shit. Every fucking western nation aside from the US manages their crime problems without the hilariously expensive and punitive US methods and gets better results. Maybe, just fucking maybe they know something the US justice system doesn't?



Except the data doesn't actually show this. This is some vibecession bullshit, but with crime instead of economics.



No data, just vibes.
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You're hung up on the bail thing, which is in its infancy. They're looking at limited data so far, and even so, the spin on it is pretty cute. The sole focus of this data is how many offenders that were released with no bail ended up getting rebooked. Let's look at the quick hits.

  • From Oct. 1 through Oct. 21, out of 5,113 total bookings, the data showed just 3% of arrestees, or about 153 people, were later rebooked having committed new crimes
  • Of those, more than half of the re-bookings were arrestees who were still subject to money bail
  • Through December, of the 20,962 people booked into L.A. County jails, 1,618, or about 8%, were rebooked for new offenses
  • In that group, those subject to money bail again represented 58%, or 936 people, all of whom paid their way out of jail only to be rearrested
  • From October through December, just 682 people who were not held on money bail, were either cited or booked and released, or released by a judge, were rebooked in that time. That’s about 3% of all bookings.
  • Among the re-bookings, only five people released by judges were rebooked
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-"Just" 153 people from a three week period were rebooked on new crimes.
-Through December "only" 1,618 were rebooked, around half of which were out on no bail.
-In a three month period "just" 682 people were rebooked.

This is all fine and dandy in focusing on low percentages. But literally thousands of motherfuckers, if you annualize, go back out there and commit more crimes. These could be murders, rapes, kidnappings, whatever. It's not necessarily people going to the local 7/11 and swiping a pack of gum. It doesn't tell us the severity of the crimes on which they were rebooked. In any event, literally thousands of people were harmed by the MANDATORY policy to allow criminals back on the streets.

In the textbook you're reading, it sounds nice. ONLY 8%. Gee, that's low! Except that when you live in a city with thousands of criminals back out there posing a serious danger to people who, you know, ACTUALLY LIVE HERE, it's a problem for them.

The other thing you're failing to notice is that rebookings follow arrests, and arrests mean apprehension of the offenders. We don't know how many of these people who didn't get rebooked actually stayed clean or just evaded apprehension. We don't know how many of those who were rebooked committed other crimes before they were caught doing whatever they were doing on the second rebooking.

You're living in a cozy little cave built for philosophers who can talk about a city's problems with a resident of the city, despite what, never having stepped foot in it? At the end of the day, violent crime is up, and that's not a good thing. It's the reason people like me and many others I know don't think it's worth it to venture out to certain areas that we used to frequent all the time. And then add the anti-semitism palestinian garbage that we Jews have to face in broad daylight, and it's 10x worse. You can feel safe in Canada citing statistics about "only 8%!" but for those of us who live here that translates into thousands of more criminals - many of them violent, repeat offenders - filling the streets and making people feel less than secure in going about day to day activities outside their homes, and having to worry about rising threats even while within our homes.
 
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LeafOfFaith said:
In the textbook you're reading, it sounds nice. ONLY 8%. Gee, that's low! Except that when you live in a city with thousands of criminals back out there posing a serious danger to people who, you know, ACTUALLY LIVE HERE, it's a problem.
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In the places that implement these changes, it makes positive impact. Not in a textbook, in actual places.

LeafOfFaith said:
These could be murders, rapes, kidnappings, whatever.
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They didn't eliminate pre trial detention, just the cash bail aspect of it. Someone arrested for violent crimes can still be held until trial, it's just that their ability to pay bail isn't a determining factor as to whether or not they go home.

I don't think you grasp the impact incarceration has on future incarceration. 80%+ of people released from jail are back in jail within 10 years. The system breeds career criminals. The fewer people you can unnecessarily detain for crimes they haven't yet been convicted of, the better. There's currently 400 fucking thousand people in the US in pre trial detention. The vast majority of those are detained because they couldn't afford bail, not because they were deemed a threat to public safety and held without bail. In 2017 (back in the good old days, apparently), about 50% of people arrested on fucking misdemeanors were held in pretrial detention because...they couldn't afford bail. They could be murderers, rapists, kidnappers....but they're almost all the "whatever" as long as by whatever you mean literally everything fucking else that isn't an actual threat if released pending trial. Those "whatevers" are now part of the system, and the Cali system is fucked. Meet Wes Watson:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMyk7mRJ_G0

You want the reality? That's the fucking reality.

The system is not supposed to be : Arrest - Jail - More Jail - come home with nowhere to live, and no job prospects - more jail within 10 years - die in the system. If someone is arrested for a crime, unless they're an actual threat to the public, they should go the fuck home to await their constitutional right to trial. After that? That's on the justice system. But until they're found guilty, they should be as far removed from your prison population as possible, whenever possible.
 
Bail is just a pay for play get out of jail free card. If someone commits a bad offense and are a danger, they should be held for public safety. And if they haven't committed a bad offense, then all bail does is harm poor people.
 
UWHabs said:
Bail is just a pay for play get out of jail free card. If someone commits a bad offense and are a danger, they should be held for public safety. And if they haven't committed a bad offense, then all bail does is harm poor people.
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There isn't enough room for everybody in jail...part of the problem.

As usual though, we tend to dismiss the why and concentrate on the wtf.
 
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