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OT: American Politics

Ya...it's definitely not good that Trump stumbled into the greatest photo-op in US political history
Screenshot_20240715_070808_Discord.jpg



Is that supposed to be a list of good things? Asking for a friend.


Doesn't matter though. People will and are rallying around it. It's a popularity contest after all.
 
Ya...it's definitely not good that Trump stumbled into the greatest photo-op in US political history

I viscerally despise the man to my very core….but even I have to admit his wherewithal to seize the moment and go for that photo op…..it’s maybe the only thing he’s ever done in his entire life that actual impresses me on any level.

Call it balls, stupidity, narcissism, the rush from the adrenaline…..the fact he did what he did, and now has those photos to be the primary representation of that event in history. It’s infuriatingly brilliant.
 
Screenshot_20240715_070808_Discord.jpg



Is that supposed to be a list of good things? Asking for a friend.


Doesn't matter though. People will and are rallying around it. It's a popularity contest after all.
leave it to fucking trump to fake being shot.

shot at, sure.

shot? get outta here
 
I viscerally despise the man to my very core….but even I have to admit his wherewithal to seize the moment and go for that photo op…..it’s maybe the only thing he’s ever done in his entire life that actual impresses me on any level.

Call it balls, stupidity, narcissism, the rush from the adrenaline…..the fact he did what he did, and now has those photos to be the primary representation of that event in history. It’s infuriatingly brilliant.
honestly seems as much luck as anything else.

but yeah, that fucking guy.
 
Thoughts from polling analyst @MindzEye on Senate candidates running so far ahead of Dark Brandon?


View: https://x.com/jonfavs/status/1812906012862783653


Without looking under the hood of the Biden/Trump poll (can't find the link posted anywhere for the actual poll, just the results). My personal opinion right now is that the MoE is juiced to the trump side. So a 2.5% MoE is really a 4-5 point swing to Trump because of methodology issues. The models are just fucked right now. They're bad at predicting likely voter demographics because that heavily relies on heavily flawed polls like the one HL provided last week and bad 2020 census data.

So I see a few things all being possible at once

Biden (who is unpopular, like every politician is unpopular in 2024) is polling behind state level politicians (who generally are more popular than federal politicians in their respective states and get a lot of the credit for national economic trends) but is still either a toss up or slightly ahead in a lot of these polling results showing him down 2-4 points.

This all goes back to what the polling firms got wrong in 2016. They did a poor job predicting the composition of 2016 voters, especially in swing states and while the results were all within the stated MoE of pre election polling, the MoE was wrong in the same direction across the board. That is either a statistical fluke, or a core issue with legacy polling practices in modern America. Since then, we've seen the MoE actually shift the other way where polls regularly undersell Democrats because again, imperfect methodology and bad census data (setting aside the push by bad right wing pollsters to flood the zone for now).
 
I viscerally despise the man to my very core….but even I have to admit his wherewithal to seize the moment and go for that photo op…..it’s maybe the only thing he’s ever done in his entire life that actual impresses me on any level.

Call it balls, stupidity, narcissism, the rush from the adrenaline…..the fact he did what he did, and now has those photos to be the primary representation of that event in history. It’s infuriatingly brilliant.

I also viscerally hate the man with all my being... and every time I see the picture, most of me thinks it's fake, like everything else he's been involved in (Trump Steaks, Trump University, his wealth, his hair, his golf scores, I seriously don't have time to list another 8,787 items) so it's pretty wild (and depressing) that his greatest feat of self promotion is actually 100% real, and the one thing he didn't contrive to the point of ridiculousness
 
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