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OT: American Politics

Tryamw said:
So You're saying that a company would not pre-buy stuff before their costs would go up 10-15% Note I'm not saying the situation happened but I definitely can see a company doing such.
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I have a hard time imagining a manufacturing company loading up on raw material because of some perceived risk in this current environment where customer demand is lagging. It would be a pretty dumb decision.
 
So it looks like the Dems will have at least 47 senate seats.

The only one that's close enough to really still be out there is PA - gop is up 30K votes with about 3% left to count. Pretty huge difference beteween 47 and 48 seats, especially in terms of winning the senate back in 2yrs.
 
Wayward DP said:
well do please keep us posted on how trump tariffs affect your workplace!
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Had 3Q earnings call today. It really wasn't mentioned on it. Customer lagging demand and things we're doing to stay prepared while keeping costs low was main focus.
 
zeke said:
So it looks like the Dems will have at least 47 senate seats.

The only one that's close enough to really still be out there is PA - gop is up 30K votes with about 3% left to count. Pretty huge difference beteween 47 and 48 seats, especially in terms of winning the senate back in 2yrs.
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I don't think there's a realistic chance, at this point, for Dems to regain Senate control in 2026, assuming there are free and fair elections then.

the map is really not favourable.

the only way I see this changing is if Trump follows through on most of his campaign promises quickly enough...
 
zeke said:
So it looks like the Dems will have at least 47 senate seats.

The only one that's close enough to really still be out there is PA - gop is up 30K votes with about 3% left to count. Pretty huge difference beteween 47 and 48 seats, especially in terms of winning the senate back in 2yrs.
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In 2 years the Senate and House will have no real power anymore.
 
Wayward DP said:
I don't think there's a realistic chance, at this point, for Dems to regain Senate control in 2026, assuming there are free and fair elections then.

the map is really not favourable.

the only way I see this changing is if Trump follows through on most of his campaign promises quickly enough...
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the 2024 map was always bad for the dems.

the 2026 map was always pretty favorable, but even more now given the usual move back against the party in power.
 
zeke said:
the 2024 map was always bad for the dems.

the 2026 map was always pretty favorable, but even more now given the usual move back against the party in power.
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I looked at it yesterday and disagree.

current Dem seats: CO, DE, GA, IL, MA, MI, (MN), NH, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

so those are mostly safe seats, but GA, MI, NM, and VA could all be competitive I think.

current Rep seats: AL, AK, AR, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MS, MT, NE, NC, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

what are the realistic pick-up opportunities there? Mitchie will be retiring but KY is pretty deep rep. Collins may be vulnerable in ME but we thought that in 2020. Dan Sullivan may get primaried by his own party. NC is the only realistic shot I see, based on things today.

obviously, this could all change if Trump crashes the global economy like he plans, but I'm damn skeptical right now.
 
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